That would sound to be similar to what I was thinking on maturity, but also establishment time plays a big factor.Adrian Brattle wrote:
one of the things i picked up from Martyn Grahm work, is to get the hardy hardiness of young small ones is to divide the hardiness limits of the mature ones by three.
so Trachycarpus fortune is -18C when mature, -6C when young young
Phoenix canariensis_CIDP lats say -8C when mature, -2.66C when young.
I would dispute -18C for Trachycarpus fortunei and probably say -15C reliably much below that you are talking defloliation and no-one really wants to see that. You can halve the mature rating for newly planted palms in their sleep year.
It is all a question of thermal mass, the bigger, the longer it takes to freeze though.... the stored energy to cope with leaf damage. Bigger = more able to cope with defoliation..... and the growth rate. A established mature width Phoenix canariensis_CIDP able to produce 10 to 20 leaves a year, and newly planted one in it's sleep year possibly none so defoliation at that point will probably be fatal.