Exactly what I was thinking Stephen. I've based the last couple of years cold winters on the contrary to expectation, reduced aged arctic sea ice mass but beforehand I had noticed that stable high pressure systems seemed to be consistent with the ending of the annual sea ice melt. With less moisture being dragged in over the atlantic, North West Europe seemed to be in a pattern of drier/sunnier weather at the End of August and into Early to Mid September when the ice melt season ended and signalled an early onset of Cold/Frosty conditions caused by anticyclonic weather patterns.
This in turn was preceded by the atypical summer monsoon conditions(again a feature of unstable air masses caused by huge volumes of moisture due to record or near record ice melt phases) again over North West Europe.
This year though is very different. The arctic sea ice melt rate got close to the 2007 record minimum but has rapidly started re-freezing. The warm /dry conditions did arrive at the beginning of September but I was expecting Mid August to herald these conditions and it was short lived until the final week arrived; when I would expect somewhat colder days and nights to be hitting home but into October and what a spell of hot weather we had(incidentally I got my figures wrong and 26c was the record for Manchester, so officially we just pipped it at 27c).
If October had started to show signs of high pressure developing again this week and beyond(as some sites were suggesting), then I'd have suspected a repeat of last year but under sw to w airflow, this is looking to suggest a return to the milder winters we have recently become accustomed to.
Though it could all change of course.
PS I have at least equalled the record max temperatures for Manchester this year on 3 months.
April (23c) - 23.3c
September(26c) 26.4c
October (26c) 26.1c
Now that's special.
Paul
Just perhaps a mild October..
Re: Just perhaps a mild October..
I like the sound of that Paul! Incidentally, a number of the usual suspect (Times & Express) are reporting today/tomorrow that we are entering another "mini ice age" and that the journal/magazine "Nature" has a big spread on this in the next month or so, with even reports that the MetO could be going to follow suit? 
This probably means we will have the mildest winter on record!...heres hoping!
This probably means we will have the mildest winter on record!...heres hoping!
Most wanted list - Any Young Trachycarpus and/or fern.
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stephenprudence
Re: Just perhaps a mild October..
You have a point there Paul, it seems Greenland is taking the brunt of early cold, but it's cold is situated to central-western Greenland. This allows an isolated high pressure cell to form (influenced by both the cold welling, and topography), the Arctic jetstream will following the Greenland Plateau high, meaning low pressures will force their way between Iceland and NW Scotland, then that leaves the subtropical jet over UK.
Over the next few weeks I would expect an Arctic event, that is a short polar maritime northerly/northwesterly that gives us our first frosts, and perhaps snow showers/wintry showers. Many members of the press will go up walls and say we told you so, however this polar maritime incursion will be down to the Greenland plateau high.. but because the GPH cannot sustain itself (as it is often attracting instability from the west), this cold spell should move through fairly quickly and settle back into a theme of Atlantic dominated weather.
As this Atlantic westerly-southwesterly type flourishes, it will push into Europe with it's moist, mild air and subdue the development of the Scandinavian or westwards ridging of the Siberian high (which cause so many problems last winter).
The way it could turn against us, is if the cold re-located its core to east of Greenland, as that would provide fuel for Continental-Arctic highs to develop bringing frigid northeasterlies over the country further on down the line.
At present though I think there is just too much warm, moist air being pumped into Europe to sustain a cold arctic high in Northern Europe.
The building blocks are being subdued at the moment, whereas last year they were being forged somewhat at this point in time (looking back now)
Over the next few weeks I would expect an Arctic event, that is a short polar maritime northerly/northwesterly that gives us our first frosts, and perhaps snow showers/wintry showers. Many members of the press will go up walls and say we told you so, however this polar maritime incursion will be down to the Greenland plateau high.. but because the GPH cannot sustain itself (as it is often attracting instability from the west), this cold spell should move through fairly quickly and settle back into a theme of Atlantic dominated weather.
As this Atlantic westerly-southwesterly type flourishes, it will push into Europe with it's moist, mild air and subdue the development of the Scandinavian or westwards ridging of the Siberian high (which cause so many problems last winter).
The way it could turn against us, is if the cold re-located its core to east of Greenland, as that would provide fuel for Continental-Arctic highs to develop bringing frigid northeasterlies over the country further on down the line.
At present though I think there is just too much warm, moist air being pumped into Europe to sustain a cold arctic high in Northern Europe.
The building blocks are being subdued at the moment, whereas last year they were being forged somewhat at this point in time (looking back now)
Re: Just perhaps a mild October..
Sounds promising Stephen! Russia having an early start to winter at the moment so let's hope no easterly kicks in.
Most wanted list - Any Young Trachycarpus and/or fern.
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sanatic1234
Re: Just perhaps a mild October..
Back to the normal temps for me next week 11c in the day for most days and the highest will be 16c forecast for next week. although dry and no rain. I watched a video on youtube last night about the winter expect for 2011/2012. have a look. See what you think.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLZjB857OVo&sns=fb
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLZjB857OVo&sns=fb
Re: Just perhaps a mild October..
He is the cause of the recent rubbish in the press. I am a tad concerned incase it is right but many much more knowledgeable people are expecting and average to milder winter. Certainly wise to prepare for the worst but I am not expecting a winter anything like the last two.
Most wanted list - Any Young Trachycarpus and/or fern.
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Adrian Brattle
Re: Just perhaps a mild October..
In the second half of October, there will be a reaction taking place in the arctic.
Extremely cold arctic air over extremely warmer arctic waters, will cause a reaction, that will make the pressure chart look similar to this. Remember i did say similar.
Extremely cold arctic air over extremely warmer arctic waters, will cause a reaction, that will make the pressure chart look similar to this. Remember i did say similar.
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Re: Just perhaps a mild October..
No way can that be known. Even if it does happen that's a lovely milder low pressure heading in from the Atlantic.
Most wanted list - Any Young Trachycarpus and/or fern.
Re: Just perhaps a mild October..
Adrian is Piers Corbyn and I claim my £5!