Early warning

[Tom2006]

No I'm not trying to compete with Adrian the Troll BUT there are some worrying signs in the weather models today showing what could quite a cold plunge/spell of weather in the 3rd/4th weeks of this month. Hopefully this will not come to pass but IF you like to leave things to the last minute, like I often do, maybe get things sorted in your garden in the next ten days.

[kata]

Daily Express was at it today Tom,

Now they are saying the energy stocks will be plunging....a household power crises is looming all to do with the Arc tic freeze temps thats supposedly coming.

-20...stuff it I am going to bed till spring

Next the candles will sell out, and matches, lighter fuel.

Something to do with the government laying cables under the sea. This is to Import electricity to the tune of £5billion

[stephenprudence]

The GFS has now backed away from that scenario, which is not surprising, the scenario it portrays is of a more mixed westerly type.

That said, I would rather we get some short northerly spells now, going into western Europe specifically, as this may help set up something more reasonable in early winter.

[Nigel]

The GFS has now backed away from that scenario, which is not surprising, the scenario it portrays is of a more mixed westerly type.

That said, I would rather we get some short northerly spells now, going into western Europe specifically, as this may help set up something more reasonable in early winter.

I am also not surprised it backed away from that scenario, but was surprised it threw it up in the first place as its an anomolous high , which means they must have programmed the arctic dipole theory into the computers, in fact I read that somewhere that they had programmed it in.
Also it was the 6Z run, its best to ignore all the runs except the 12Z which is the most reliable.

[Adrian Brattle]

The GFS has now backed away from that scenario, which is not surprising, the scenario it portrays is of a more mixed westerly type.

That said, I would rather we get some short northerly spells now, going into western Europe specifically, as this may help set up something more reasonable in early winter.

I am also not surprised it backed away from that scenario, but was surprised it threw it up in the first place as its an anomolous high , which means they must have programmed the arctic dipole theory into the computers, in fact I read that somewhere that they had programmed it in.
Also it was the 6Z run, its best to ignore all the runs except the 12Z which is the most reliable.

When it goes beyond 5 days there will be too many variables for the computer to compute. But the is a trend to more weakened Mid-latitude lows and jet-stream. That means the polar troposphere is expanding.