ARCTIC DIPOLE ANOMOLY

[Nigel]

The weather this year has been pretty normal, as is the azores high building into the UK at this time of year to give pleasant atumnal weather.
Its hard to imagine that it can be another cold winter ,everything points to normality and warmth.

There is a theory put forward called the arctic dipole anomoly that is a change to the normal pattern , see here.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Global- ... nters.html
This phenomen is a result of an over warm arctic caused by global warming and anomolous high pressure forms over greenland sucking warm air into the arctic in late autumn early winter and allowing arctic air to flood down into north europe. I was a bit sceptical of this and it all seemed so normal this year.... but today looking at the GFS data for next week, anomolous high pressure seems to be forming over greenland again. If this persists then this theoretical anomoly that caused the last bad winters can really be a reality.
NOT GOOD

[The Codfather]

I expected one

[Tom2006]

Very worrying Nigel! The chart for 21st Oct is virtually a copy of last years and we all know what happened. Looks like my Poly tunnel and heater could be out very soon.

[Adrian Brattle]

The weather this year has been pretty normal, as is the azores high building into the UK at this time of year to give pleasant atumnal weather.
Its hard to imagine that it can be another cold winter ,everything points to normality and warmth.

There is a theory put forward called the arctic dipole anomoly that is a change to the normal pattern , see here.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Global- ... nters.html
This phenomen is a result of an over warm arctic caused by global warming and anomolous high pressure forms over greenland sucking warm air into the arctic in late autumn early winter and allowing arctic air to flood down into north europe. I was a bit sceptical of this and it all seemed so normal this year.... but today looking at the GFS data for next week, anomolous high pressure seems to be forming over Greenland again. If this persists then this theoretical anomoly that caused the last bad winters can really be a reality.
NOT GOOD

The idea goes like this: extremely cold air over warmer waters course evaporation, leading to a build up of air-mass. That air-mass has to go somewhere. So high pressure comes into play to discharge it to the mid-latitudes.

[The Codfather]

put it in plain english.....

[Nigel]

put it in plain english.....

Global warming will make the arctic warmer and north europe colder

[MikeC]

put it in plain english.....

Global warming will make the arctic warmer and north europe colder

This is nothing new.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/05/ ... 1911.shtml

[stephenprudence]

I'm glad that Greenland high pressure is forming now! In Autumns with mild winters following, there would always be a cold spell in Autumn, if there wasn't you would start asking questions.

The time we have to start worrying is when the Greenland high pressure links up with the Scandinavian high, that's when we're in trouble.

[Adrian Brattle]

put it in plain english.....

Global warming will make the arctic warmer and north europe colder

This is nothing new.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/05/ ... 1911.shtml

Have you ever heard of a crustal pole shift?

[Nigel]

I'm glad that Greenland high pressure is forming now! In Autumns with mild winters following, there would always be a cold spell in Autumn, if there wasn't you would start asking questions.

The time we have to start worrying is when the Greenland high pressure links up with the Scandinavian high, that's when we're in trouble.

Stephen, the azores high should still be dominating the weather now , normally highs break off and drift north and when they pass over in october you get ground frosts or at worst light frosts.
The end of November almost always sees the first cold plunge with hard frosts for a week of so.