breaking down of the summer time subtropical high

[Nigel]

I think I misunderstood Adrians original post.
I thought he was saying it was going to get very cold, when in fact he was just saying that it is going to get colder and winter is coming. Normal.

[Adam D]

I think I misunderstood Adrians original post.
I thought he was saying it was going to get very cold, when in fact he was just saying that it is going to get colder and winter is coming. Normal.

Phew!

I wonder how you managed to misunderstand Adrian's originial post?

[Adrian Brattle]

Adrian, do you by chance have Aspergers or similar. I do have it mildly but I have learnt to appreciate when enough is enough and when I am becoming Obsessive.

It's probably best Adrian if you research this yourself but direct your interests to a more accomodating forum or website, like the Met office or National Society for Arctic Sea Ice data research - NSIDC or similar site's with the tools/professionalism and computer simulation models (you are probably deriving your questions from) ; to answer your burning questions appropriately and resolutely.

You are in danger of people alienating you and I appreciate that this is not necessarily your fault; you just do not apparently understand the social behaviourisms and etiquette the same as the majority of other people do.

Please do not see this as a criticism. I worry when I see your posts because I know what kind of response you will inevitably get.

I can tell, that you, like anybody, desperately wants to be accepted on this site. Nobody wants to be the butt of a joke, it's hurtful.

I have restrained myself until now from saying anything but I felt I had to openly state my opinion.

Adrian, try to read carefully what people say, try to fully understand what you are trying to say and the facts that you present to people. Try to understand that not everybody will appreciate what you are posting.

If people continually criticise a post, leave it be; don't take it personally. I can bore the hind legs off a donkey

Try not to be so scientific; read how people react /respond to you and why they're doing it.

Even learn how to laugh at yourself, Laugh and people will laugh back !

Take Care

Paul

Hi paul

Well Ive just done an Aspergers test and my score is 27.

Its 32 and above to meet the criteria for Aspergers, autism or other related.

The average score in a group test were 16.4
I'm well above the average, but not Aspergers

http://www.asperger-syndrome.me.uk/about.html

[Dave Brown]

Apparently BBC said last night, according to my wife, that we were likely to have a repeat of last December with arctic weather, following a warm spell in November. The fact that the Met Office has factored the dipole into their modelling must mean they think this is a real possibility.

Nigel, The Med traditionally has low pressure in winter with the bulk of their rainfall occurring over that period. Many much wetter that the UK over the same period.

Moderator Hat on.

I'm getting a distinct impression there is ganging up going on here, and it is ok for anyone else to talk about climate models but not Adrian..... a sort of moderation by lynch mob.

This forum has a reputation for being easy going, but if we really want to get picky, I'll delete any post that says 'there' instead of 'their' or 'they're', also 'to' instead of 'too', 'your' instead of 'you're', etc, etc. Let him with perfect written grammar, be the first one to critisize

Get my point

[billdango]

My brain hurts?.
Why worry about the coming winter.
Just make sure you have got those covers ready and grit your teeth and pray hard.
It takes more then a cold winter to stop us forum members enjoying our gardens because we are harder then the average gardeners and nothing will stand in our way.
Good luck everyone.
Billdango

[Nigel]

Dave, I certainly didnt pick on adrian, I quite enjoyed his input previously, personally I didnt understand the first post, then he later seemed to contradict himself by saying it was normal , but that may be because I didnt ( and still dont) understand what he was trying to say....

Re Spain, yes I know almost all the rain falls in winter as the high pressure weakens and allows fronts to push in from time to time. Adrian responded to me by saying Even during the mild winters of the +NAO with low pressure centre over Iceland, weather fronts stretching right down to as for south as Spain. For the front to retch that far south the pressure in that region have to be lower Even during the mild winters of the +NAO with low pressure centre over Iceland, weather fronts stretching right down to as for south as Spain. For the front to retch that far south the pressure in that region have to be lower This is basically correct but not the same as saying low pressure dominates as the centres of lows would still traditionally be to the north in normal winters. The jet stream in summer is usally to the north of scotland , in winter its usually over the uk, but it meanders , so from time to time it meanders south and allows cold into the uk at which time it rains like hell in spain. The last 2 winters it was 1000 miles south of where it should have been due to the arctic dipole anomoly which is why everything froze solid.
I cant see anything in the weather models right now which says that will happen again so i hope the BBc are wrong for everybodys sakes.
I thought adrian was pointing to a recurrence of this in the original post and if he was then he should continue to provide info because its very interesting.

[Adrian Brattle]

Dave, I certainly didnt pick on adrian, I quite enjoyed his input previously, personally I didnt understand the first post, then he later seemed to contradict himself by saying it was normal , but that may be because I didnt ( and still dont) understand what he was trying to say....

Re Spain, yes I know almost all the rain falls in winter as the high pressure weakens and allows fronts to push in from time to time. Adrian responded to me by saying Even during the mild winters of the +NAO with low pressure centre over Iceland, weather fronts stretching right down to as for south as Spain. For the front to retch that far south the pressure in that region have to be lower Even during the mild winters of the +NAO with low pressure centre over Iceland, weather fronts stretching right down to as for south as Spain. For the front to retch that far south the pressure in that region have to be lower This is basically correct but not the same as saying low pressure dominates as the centres of lows would still traditionally be to the north in normal winters. The jet stream in summer is usally to the north of scotland , in winter its usually over the uk, but it meanders , so from time to time it meanders south and allows cold into the uk at which time it rains like hell in spain. The last 2 winters it was 1000 miles south of where it should have been due to the arctic dipole anomaly which is why everything froze solid.
I cant see anything in the weather models right now which says that will happen again so i hope the BBc are wrong for everybodys sakes.
I thought Adrian was pointing to a recurrence of this in the original post and if he was then he should continue to provide info because its very interesting.

What im trying to say is the extremely cold arctic waters helps to keep a high temperature gradient between the poles and the subtropics, that in turn drive the jet stream, deepens Icelandic low pressure systems.

If the arctic waters are to warm it may lead to total collapse of the subtropical high over southern Europe, once the winter sets in.

If the arctic waters are cold enough, the subtropical high may weaken, but not completely break down.

The BBC has alway been conservative about cold winter.

[Nigel]

Dave, I certainly didnt pick on adrian, I quite enjoyed his input previously, personally I didnt understand the first post, then he later seemed to contradict himself by saying it was normal , but that may be because I didnt ( and still dont) understand what he was trying to say....

Re Spain, yes I know almost all the rain falls in winter as the high pressure weakens and allows fronts to push in from time to time. Adrian responded to me by saying Even during the mild winters of the +NAO with low pressure centre over Iceland, weather fronts stretching right down to as for south as Spain. For the front to retch that far south the pressure in that region have to be lower Even during the mild winters of the +NAO with low pressure centre over Iceland, weather fronts stretching right down to as for south as Spain. For the front to retch that far south the pressure in that region have to be lower This is basically correct but not the same as saying low pressure dominates as the centres of lows would still traditionally be to the north in normal winters. The jet stream in summer is usally to the north of scotland , in winter its usually over the uk, but it meanders , so from time to time it meanders south and allows cold into the uk at which time it rains like hell in spain. The last 2 winters it was 1000 miles south of where it should have been due to the arctic dipole anomaly which is why everything froze solid.
I cant see anything in the weather models right now which says that will happen again so i hope the BBc are wrong for everybodys sakes.
I thought Adrian was pointing to a recurrence of this in the original post and if he was then he should continue to provide info because its very interesting.

What im trying to say is the extremely cold arctic waters helps to keep a high temperature gradient between the poles and the subtropics, that in turn drive the jet stream, deepens Icelandic low pressure systems.

If the arctic wasters are to warm it may lead to total collapse of the subtropical high over southern Europe, once the winter sets in.

If the arctic waters are cold enough, the subtropical high may weaken, but not completely break down.

Isnt the problem more to do with lack of ice and snow in autumn causing higher temps and high pressure to form where it shouldnt be, thus resulting in the arctic dipole anomoly ? This forces warm air up over greenland and the cold is displaced ownwards into north europe. Do we have signs this is going to happen again ? I think this is the only basis for the narnia forecasts we are hearing so they must think its going to repeat because temps of -20 dont happen any other way.
At the moment when I look at the charts I see normal patterns.

[Adrian Brattle]

Dave, I certainly didnt pick on adrian, I quite enjoyed his input previously, personally I didnt understand the first post, then he later seemed to contradict himself by saying it was normal , but that may be because I didnt ( and still dont) understand what he was trying to say....

Re Spain, yes I know almost all the rain falls in winter as the high pressure weakens and allows fronts to push in from time to time. Adrian responded to me by saying Even during the mild winters of the +NAO with low pressure centre over Iceland, weather fronts stretching right down to as for south as Spain. For the front to retch that far south the pressure in that region have to be lower Even during the mild winters of the +NAO with low pressure centre over Iceland, weather fronts stretching right down to as for south as Spain. For the front to retch that far south the pressure in that region have to be lower This is basically correct but not the same as saying low pressure dominates as the centres of lows would still traditionally be to the north in normal winters. The jet stream in summer is usally to the north of scotland , in winter its usually over the uk, but it meanders , so from time to time it meanders south and allows cold into the uk at which time it rains like hell in spain. The last 2 winters it was 1000 miles south of where it should have been due to the arctic dipole anomaly which is why everything froze solid.
I cant see anything in the weather models right now which says that will happen again so i hope the BBc are wrong for everybodys sakes.
I thought Adrian was pointing to a recurrence of this in the original post and if he was then he should continue to provide info because its very interesting.

What im trying to say is the extremely cold arctic waters helps to keep a high temperature gradient between the poles and the subtropics, that in turn drive the jet stream, deepens Icelandic low pressure systems.

If the arctic wasters are to warm it may lead to total collapse of the subtropical high over southern Europe, once the winter sets in.

If the arctic waters are cold enough, the subtropical high may weaken, but not completely break down.

Isnt the problem more to do with lack of ice and snow in autumn causing higher temps and high pressure to form where it shouldnt be, thus resulting in the arctic dipole anomoly ? This forces warm air up over greenland and the cold is displaced ownwards into north Europe. Do we have signs this is going to happen again ? I think this is the only basis for the narnia forecasts we are hearing so they must think its going to repeat because temps of -20 dont happen any other way.
At the moment when I look at the charts I see normal patterns.

we could move toward a +NAO in January, once the arctic water refreezes and the temperature gradient rises. Right now the high pressure over southern Europe is still needs time to recover from summer. Its still to early.

In the winter the arctic waters will cool and when it cools its warms the atmosphere, this will in turn expand the troposphere, weakens the jet-stream. remember land mass cannot hold heat.

[Dave Brown]

I know you want us to look at the Arctic Ocean, but what leaps out of the screen to me is how the Pacific has cooled in equatorial areas. I'm presuming 2004 must have been El Nino, and now is La nina?

[Nigel]

Yeah I know land mass cant hold heat which is why greenland normally gets so damn cold and contributes to the positive jet stream , under the ADA its not a question of land mass not holding heat, but the heat that is sucked up over greenland that SHOULD be coming our way.
If a huge blcok of high pressure forms over greenland in the coming weeks then the narnia forecasts can be right, and as you say as the arctic refreezes the ADA wanes and lets the jetstream back as it did last year in december when the winter reverted to mild conditions.

But at the moment I just see normal weather patterns.

Dave this is the other point. Last year was an el nino year, but now we have a strong la nina, and whilst la nina doesnt have huge impact on the UK weather, it does put more energy into the jet stream which should make it harder to displace from the norm, a good thing.

[palmking]

Hi Adrian, interesting as you do remind me of myself now and again!

PS i've scored 42, previously; so it's fair to say that I do.

Anyway, now the air has cleared. I think that this year is showing distinct signs of it being a milder winter than the last few years have been. More of a 'normal' winter, with occasional cold or very cold spells; shorter lived and interspersed with milder periods and significantly more precipitation falling as rain.

I'll be honest I was beginning to think that Nigel's suggestion of prominent high's resulting from significantly less arctic sea ice at the end of the summer melt season as a persistent harbinger of the early onset of colder conditions and the sort of deepening cold and snowbound conditions we've had in the last couple of years.

I'm not so sure now. At least one other prominent site(weather underground) is suggesting a milder winter than of late.

I believe, I also read somewhere that after 2010, 1 in 2 years would be warmer than the previous record high years; in terms of annual global temperatures. I'm not sure what the reason for this specific date was though.

However and of course I could be very wrong, I think personally that the loss of old hard packed ice in the arctic regions, now replaced by much 'newer' and therefore thinner ice packs; has reached a critical point and may allow for a modification to weather patterns and maybe intensify the effects of the gulf stream as opposed to reducing it.

PS. This is speculation on my part
PPS. Adrian, I do respect your ideas but I hope you are wrong for obvious reasons
PPPS. Nigel, you won't have to worry about it where you are

Finally, my original post was getting ridiculously long and boring so I've left it be without answering a lot of what has influenced my belief's.I'll leave that to the experts.


Regards Paul

[Adrian Brattle]

Yeah I know land mass cant hold heat which is why greenland normally gets so damn cold and contributes to the positive jet stream , under the ADA its not a question of land mass not holding heat, but the heat that is sucked up over greenland that SHOULD be coming our way.
If a huge blcok of high pressure forms over greenland in the coming weeks then the narnia forecasts can be right, and as you say as the arctic refreezes the ADA wanes and lets the jetstream back as it did last year in december when the winter reverted to mild conditions.

But at the moment I just see normal weather patterns.

Dave this is the other point. Last year was an el nino year, but now we have a strong la nina, and whilst la nina doesnt have huge impact on the UK weather, it does put more energy into the jet stream which should make it harder to displace from the norm, a good thing.

2009 was an el nino!

[stephenprudence]

I wouldn't worry, it has been proved that what is happening now, does not necessarily have any bearing on winter.

[Nigel]

Stephen, it might affect me more than you think.... who wants to buy palms in narnia ?
This year there is different factors, La Nina and return to sun activity after a 200 year low This has to affect the weather , the ADA is a nightmare and it needs to sod off for good.
Stephen its funny you should say that about sea ice, because lack of sea ice always was programmed into the computers as a factor for a mild winter and I also still think it can be a positive factor although we have to wait and see.
Adrian the last El Nino started in 2009 and petered out in 2010. At end of 2010 there was slight La Nina conditions but not enough to warrant being classified full La Nina so it was pretty neutral.