New Year 2012 Winter forecast

[real_ale]

whats the forecast for rest of the winter, its being mild here this side of the year so lets see whats 2012 brings.

[tropical Tom]

I aint got a clue, but with regards to your profile, I was supping the famous 'purple moose' yesterday......brewed not far from you I take it?.....bloody lovely

[real_ale]

I aint got a clue, but with regards to your profile, I was supping the famous 'purple moose' yesterday......brewed not far from you I take it?.....bloody lovely

Tell me more, where is this, is its a microbrewery, i havn't found any yet since living up here

[stephenprudence]

Forecast well.. any confidence is very low however there is a period of Stratsopheric warming on the way apparently, this is not usually good news, but we can't really tell how long this event will take place or whether it will take place at all.

If it does take place then we could have a period of blocked or easterly type weather, probably not as severe as last year though, probably more like the easterly weather of 2005.

However we have has Stratospheric warming predictions that have not materialised at times in the past few years, so with a roaring jet and relatively warm SST's we probably don't have anything to worry about.

If we look on a traditional note then we should expect some cold weather through January and February, but not necessarily severe.

[tropical Tom]

I aint got a clue, but with regards to your profile, I was supping the famous 'purple moose' yesterday......brewed not far from you I take it?.....bloody lovely

Tell me more, where is this, is its a microbrewery, i havn't found any yet since living up here

http://www.purplemoose.co.uk/
I think they're in Portmadog but they do sell to real ale pubs, I was drinking it at the crown in Oakengates, telford, where they regularly have it.

[real_ale]

another one to the list. cheers

[Tom2006]

Forecast well.. any confidence is very low however there is a period of Stratsopheric warming on the way apparently, this is not usually good news, but we can't really tell how long this event will take place or whether it will take place at all.

If it does take place then we could have a period of blocked or easterly type weather, probably not as severe as last year though, probably more like the easterly weather of 2005.

However we have has Stratospheric warming predictions that have not materialised at times in the past few years, so with a roaring jet and relatively warm SST's we probably don't have anything to worry about.

If we look on a traditional note then we should expect some cold weather through January and February, but not necessarily severe.

Not sure I by this stratospheric warming some are forecasting. All signs are for a continuation of a winter as its been so far with wintry spells but not a severe as the last few years. The blocking of the last two years is rare.

[stephenprudence]

Yes I also share scepticism of Stratopsheric warming, it seems like a reliance tool for cold weather fans - despite what some might say, I don't think this Strat warming is a reliable way of telling.. too many differentials.

[Nigel]

Stephen, where do you see 2011 finishing in terms of warmest years. Surely in the top 5 ? With the azores high seemingly moving into the 'dream position' for the rest of the year december will surely come out again well above average, with a very warm xmas period.

[stephenprudence]

Stephen, where do you see 2011 finishing in terms of warmest years. Surely in the top 5 ? With the azores high seemingly moving into the 'dream position' for the rest of the year december will surely come out again well above average, with a very warm xmas period.

Unfortunately no, not in the top 5, more like top 15 - however 15 out of 300 or so, is quite an achievement in itself!

If the CET zone was here we would beat the record, but it's in the central part, and they need 4.65C above average every day for the rest of the month to break the record, which is bordering on inconceivable - especially when frosts/sub zero temperatures are looking very likely towards the end of December.

[Tom2006]

I thought it was due to be top ten? Has the cold spell this month knocked it back?

The jet stream is exceptionally strong at the moment and can only help the cold stay away

[Conifers]

I thought it was due to be top ten? Has the cold spell this month knocked it back?

I'd think mainly knocked back by the cold June, July and August.

[Nigel]

If the CET zone was here we would beat the record, but it's in the central part, and they need 4.65C above average every day for the rest of the month to break the record, which is bordering on inconceivable - especially when frosts/sub zero temperatures are looking very likely towards the end of December.

Looks like a few 4.65 aboves are going to come in to me, where do you see the cold coming from , i only see mild weather ahead.

[stephenprudence]

High pressure is due to move over on about the 29th December, if it prevails, it will produce inversions, meaning daytime temperature barely above freezing, and night time temperatures in some parts well below 0C.

However as yet this is not certain and if the high pressure goes more southwards, we may well come close to the record but not break it.

Bear in mind it has to be almost 5C above average day and night for the remainder of the month - for that to happen we would need a month as relatively exceptional as the start of November.

[Nigel]

yes I cant see it being 5c above every day, it only takes a few clear still nights, but the outlook is excellent for what is usually one of the coldest parts of the year. If that azores high continues ridging up to the UK it could stay mild right into the new year, as you say depends where the high pressure goes.