New Year 2012 Winter forecast

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stephenprudence
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Re: New Year 2012 Winter forecast

Post by stephenprudence » Tue Dec 20, 2011 12:03 pm

Here it's a case of damned if it is, and damned if it isn't, because if the jet is south like last year we get severe cold, if the jet is north then we often get high pressure and a frosty scenario, so it shows the importance of the jet stream being right over the UK, and fortunately for us it is most of the time!
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


Nigel
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Re: New Year 2012 Winter forecast

Post by Nigel » Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:23 pm

The best scenario surely is the azores high ridging up over spain and france then you get the westerly edge with warm sowesterlies , still light frosts at night when its clear but usually in that scenario you get the bottom edge of the jet and grey cloud. Those are always the mildest and most pleasnant days of winter and even when its clear its usually 7 or 8 by day and only light frosts.
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stephenprudence
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Re: New Year 2012 Winter forecast

Post by stephenprudence » Tue Dec 20, 2011 5:36 pm

Yes they can be pleasant but there's often a fine line between pleasant, sunny days and cool nights, and inversions with foggy freezing days and very cold nights.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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stephenprudence
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Re: New Year 2012 Winter forecast

Post by stephenprudence » Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:09 pm

Ok well it does have to be said the 12z run is a little bit special, and although it wouldn't break the record it would come very close.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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stephenprudence
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Re: New Year 2012 Winter forecast

Post by stephenprudence » Tue Dec 20, 2011 10:52 pm

Another wonderful model run to take us into the new year - if this run had been in July we would have widespread temperatures of 30C.

Image
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


Tom2006
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Re: New Year 2012 Winter forecast

Post by Tom2006 » Wed Dec 21, 2011 12:04 am

we must hope that these charts continue right through for ever more!!...if only :lol:
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Dave Brown
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Re: New Year 2012 Winter forecast

Post by Dave Brown » Wed Dec 21, 2011 1:18 am

stephenprudence wrote:
Nigel wrote:Stephen, where do you see 2011 finishing in terms of warmest years. Surely in the top 5 ? With the azores high seemingly moving into the 'dream position' for the rest of the year december will surely come out again well above average, with a very warm xmas period.
Unfortunately no, not in the top 5, more like top 15 - however 15 out of 300 or so, is quite an achievement in itself!

If the CET zone was here we would beat the record, but it's in the central part, and they need 4.65C above average every day for the rest of the month to break the record, which is bordering on inconceivable - especially when frosts/sub zero temperatures are looking very likely towards the end of December.
This is how the year has panned out here so far
Attachments
2011 weather data YTD Nov.jpg
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stephenprudence
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Re: New Year 2012 Winter forecast

Post by stephenprudence » Wed Dec 21, 2011 6:55 am

Would you say that's a record for you Dave so far? It looks like your rolling mean is around 12C which is pretty warm! My current rolling mean is around 11.5C which would most likely be a record if it finished like that. The CET record is 10.8C and it's currently 11.0 I think so it really is going to go right to the wire if we het the mildness shown for the rest of December.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: New Year 2012 Winter forecast

Post by Nigel » Wed Dec 21, 2011 1:57 pm

Blimey dave, lowest for entire YEAR just -3.7C :shock:
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Yorkshire Kris
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Re: New Year 2012 Winter forecast

Post by Yorkshire Kris » Wed Dec 21, 2011 2:19 pm

Nigel wrote:Blimey dave, lowest for entire YEAR just -3.7C :shock:

My lowest temp up here in Yorkshire for 2011 has been -4.1 in March and again in early April.

So the last 12 months have been very mild as that's the lowest temp recorded in my garden.

Just last November and first three weeks of Dec that were rubbish.


Nathan
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Re: New Year 2012 Winter forecast

Post by Nathan » Wed Dec 21, 2011 2:37 pm

My lowest temperature for 2011 (so far) has been +0.3C, recorded back in January...

Just 4 more days to go & it will be 12 months exactly since I had my last frost here (below 0C) :shock:
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stephenprudence
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Re: New Year 2012 Winter forecast

Post by stephenprudence » Wed Dec 21, 2011 5:47 pm

We got hit badly in late January, and recorded -4.9C it was basically when the frigid air affected the northern part of the country (or just here?).

-4.9C is the lowest. Very low and very cold.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Darlo Mark
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Re: New Year 2012 Winter forecast

Post by Darlo Mark » Wed Dec 21, 2011 8:01 pm

Keep these warm fronts coming................
Winter lows:
Winter 2009-10 -9.5
Winter 2010-11 -15.0
winter 2011-12 (so far) -7.2


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