Freeze on its way! another daily weather blog

Post Reply
Tom2006
Posts: 8091
Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 11:23 am
Location: East Yorkshire UK

Freeze on its way! another daily weather blog

Post by Tom2006 » Sat Jan 07, 2012 7:41 pm

The stupid cold lovers on the weather forums are drooling today as apparently a big freeze from the east is on route. I'm no expert so I'm not saying its going to happen BUT IF it does get all those extra cold preparations completed by no later than the 14th just in case. I doubt it will be as severe as Dec 10 but looks like my Polyhouse and heater might be put to the test afterall? :evil: :roll:
Most wanted list - Any Young Trachycarpus and/or fern.


User avatar
Adam D
Posts: 3574
Joined: Tue Jul 14, 2009 10:47 pm
Location: Scotland

Re: Freeze on its way!

Post by Adam D » Sat Jan 07, 2012 8:07 pm

Just been reading the latest model chat thread on UKWW and I think the cold rampers are clutching at straws Tom!


Nigel
Posts: 2468
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2007 8:16 am
Location: BACK IN BLIGHTY, BRISTOL
Contact:

Re: Freeze on its way!

Post by Nigel » Sat Jan 07, 2012 8:17 pm

The 12Z GFs throws up a high pressure scenario 10 days out and off they go, its just as likely to revert back tomorrow. When the GFS is jumping all over the place with each run the predictability 10 days out is very low.
Hardypalms is now open http://www.hardy-palms.co.uk Discounts for HTUK members on request.


User avatar
Dave Brown
Site Admin
Posts: 19737
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:17 am
Location: Chalk, (Thames Estuary) Kent, England 51.5N 0.3E
Contact:

Re: Freeze on its way!

Post by Dave Brown » Sat Jan 07, 2012 9:01 pm

If I had more time I'd join up and keep going on about burning more fossil fuels for maximum global warming :lol:
Best regards
Dave
icon_thumright
_________________________________________________
Roll on summer.....
http://www.hardytropicals.co.uk


Tom2006
Posts: 8091
Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 11:23 am
Location: East Yorkshire UK

Re: Freeze on its way!

Post by Tom2006 » Sat Jan 07, 2012 9:50 pm

Adam D wrote:Just been reading the latest model chat thread on UKWW and I think the cold rampers are clutching at straws Tom!
I hope your right. I rarely visit the forums in winter as its full of kids (or adult kids) desperate for cold so its hard to know what is really going to happen. I'm hoping that my heater stays packed.
Most wanted list - Any Young Trachycarpus and/or fern.


User avatar
stephenprudence
Posts: 9028
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2008 8:40 pm
Location: Heswall, Wirral

Re: Freeze on its way!

Post by stephenprudence » Sat Jan 07, 2012 10:34 pm

I'm not sure anymore, there is a huge stratospheric warming event that not even our record breaking PV will be able to resist. I'm afraid this could be a big problem.

It does look like, unfortunately we are going to be plunged into a cold spell, perhaps severe. Unlikely at the moment, but if the GFS 12z is correct it will be a 1-in a 200 year event with the entire Europe delved into freezing coniditions - even the Mediterranean. If it doesn't happen in a week, it'll happen in early February.. Ive studied many charts in the past, we will be extremely fortunate to get away with it..

If it is to turn very cold, I really don't know where we stand with regard to the future.. but global warming lark really doesn't matter when you're at the risk of losing plants for the 4th year in a row icon_thumbdown
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


User avatar
GoggleboxUK
Posts: 16877
Joined: Fri Mar 04, 2011 9:58 pm
Location: Preston Lancashire

Re: Freeze on its way!

Post by GoggleboxUK » Sat Jan 07, 2012 10:43 pm

Oh sh*t :shock:

We see off a 1 in 100 year low then get hit with a 1 in 200 year low?

I'm moving to Tunisia.
Once upon a time there were 3 little bears. Now there's thousands of them.


User avatar
stephenprudence
Posts: 9028
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2008 8:40 pm
Location: Heswall, Wirral

Re: Freeze on its way!

Post by stephenprudence » Sat Jan 07, 2012 10:45 pm

I just edited my post; it's unlikely, however with record breaking Strat warming, you have to actually take these things seriously. It may seem armageddon and sensationalist, but I really think there is potential. The 12z was showing -13C over Athens, I mean this is ridiculous cold. I would be very surprised of Greece and Balkans, central Europe and UK got away with this.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


User avatar
GoggleboxUK
Posts: 16877
Joined: Fri Mar 04, 2011 9:58 pm
Location: Preston Lancashire

Re: Freeze on its way!

Post by GoggleboxUK » Sat Jan 07, 2012 11:07 pm

I'm not one of those nutters spouting end of the world nonsense but I do believe in Mayan prophecies that 2012 will be the year of enormous change.

Scientists have said for years that we're overdue for entering a new ice age and the signs have been there for decades that it could actually be happening.

The coincidence that the Mayan calendar ends on the precise date when every planet in our solar system is precisely in line with "the centre of the universe" or 'Dark Rift' is hard to ignore, especially when a civilisation from more than 5000 years ago had a more comprehensive knowledge of the movements taking place within space.

The amount of unusual weather patterns, seismic activity and catastrophies, particularly over the last year or 2, is a compelling argument in itself.
Once upon a time there were 3 little bears. Now there's thousands of them.


User avatar
Dave Brown
Site Admin
Posts: 19737
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:17 am
Location: Chalk, (Thames Estuary) Kent, England 51.5N 0.3E
Contact:

Re: Freeze on its way!

Post by Dave Brown » Sat Jan 07, 2012 11:32 pm

As far as I am concerned the models get it wrong most of the time. They start out saying wild things often. When it is in the 5 day forecast issued by the met, I will believe it. They don't issue it before 5 days as it is unreliable.
Best regards
Dave
icon_thumright
_________________________________________________
Roll on summer.....
http://www.hardytropicals.co.uk


Conifers
Posts: 13147
Joined: Sat Jun 20, 2009 2:11 pm
Location: Northumbs

Re: Freeze on its way!

Post by Conifers » Sat Jan 07, 2012 11:41 pm

GoggleboxUK wrote:... is hard to ignore, ....
Naaah, it's very easy to ignore :lol:

Anyway, the freeze is here right now, I just looked, it's -18°C















in the kitchen freezer :lol: :lol: :lol:


User avatar
stephenprudence
Posts: 9028
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2008 8:40 pm
Location: Heswall, Wirral

Re: Freeze on its way!

Post by stephenprudence » Sat Jan 07, 2012 11:44 pm

Forget the models, the models have nothing much to do with this, the signals don't look too rosy - the broad signals are nearly always correct, this time though it sticks out like a sore thumb.

We're only really just coming out of the last ice age - indeed were still in it :shock:
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


User avatar
GoggleboxUK
Posts: 16877
Joined: Fri Mar 04, 2011 9:58 pm
Location: Preston Lancashire

Re: Freeze on its way!

Post by GoggleboxUK » Sat Jan 07, 2012 11:45 pm

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Did you get your stat from Poundland Connie?
Once upon a time there were 3 little bears. Now there's thousands of them.


User avatar
stephenprudence
Posts: 9028
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2008 8:40 pm
Location: Heswall, Wirral

Re: Freeze on its way!

Post by stephenprudence » Sat Jan 07, 2012 11:48 pm

Dave, regardless of whether the models are right or wrong, it's probably a good idea to put these qualms of accuracy behind us, and do out best to prepare in the garden, otherwise, if these predictions and signals are right, we could end up with a December 2010 scenario where everyone gets take by surprise, or doesn't believe the potential and then loses a whole load of plants.

Isn't it better to just prepare for the potential rather than dismiss it?

This has nothing to do with the climate or anything like that, this has everything to do with people's gardens and their plants.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


User avatar
sanatic1234
Posts: 7291
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2010 10:04 pm
Location: east midlands/Lincolnshire
Contact:

Re: Freeze on its way!

Post by sanatic1234 » Sun Jan 08, 2012 12:12 am

GoggleboxUK wrote:I'm not one of those nutters spouting end of the world nonsense but I do believe in Mayan prophecies that 2012 will be the year of enormous change.

Scientists have said for years that we're overdue for entering a new ice age and the signs have been there for decades that it could actually be happening.

This is true we are WELL OVERDUE an ice age by thousands of years.

The coincidence that the Mayan calendar ends on the precise date when every planet in our solar system is precisely in line with "the centre of the universe" or 'Dark Rift' is hard to ignore
This scenario about the planets alignments in 2012 is a load of rubbish and that the only alignment of certain planets won't take place at least for another 3 decades. And it would not cause catastrophic events when they do, this has been confirmed on the NASA website by NASA themselves
Best regards Aaron :)

Summer 2013 was a good one :-).

http://s1006.photobucket.com/home/sanat ... entuploads


Post Reply