Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

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sanatic1234
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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by sanatic1234 » Fri Nov 01, 2013 11:26 pm

This is what the metoffice had to say about the silly write up by the daily Express long range forecast. :lol:

Once again it is the season for speculation and big headlines regarding what the weather will do over the winter period. The front page of the Daily Express today claims: ‘Worst winter for decades: Record-breaking snow predicted for November’.

We saw similar headlines last year and instead winter 12/13 ended up being only the 43rd coldest on record with an average temperature of 3.3C and flooding until the turn of the year.

What the Daily Express has failed to explain to its readers is that there is absolutely no certainty about what weather the UK will see over the winter period. The science simply does not exist to make detailed, long-term forecasts for temperature and snowfall even for the end of November, let alone for the winter period, which does not officially start until 1 December.

While we have seen a return to more normal, cooler temperatures for this time of year, this is no indication of what we can expect over the next four months with regards to temperatures and when we might see snow. It is far too early to tell.

Ultimately, we’re heading into winter and it is perfectly possible that we will see the whole range of weather that we get in winter at some point over the coming months, including snow and freezing temperatures, but also heavy rain, windy weather and mild conditions too.

Our five day forecasts and warnings will provide you with the best possible guidance on any periods of cold weather, frost or the likelihood of snow, giving detailed local information across the UK to help you make the most of the weather over the coming months.
Best regards Aaron :)

Summer 2013 was a good one :-).

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Nathan
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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by Nathan » Sat Nov 02, 2013 4:15 pm

sanatic1234 wrote:
Nathan wrote:The Met Office have said it is looking mild from November through to January icon_thumright


They normally only do 5 day forecasts now? nothing has been mentioned on weatherview either? Not that those predictions will be right anyway. Like the metoffice has already said before it is very hard to get a 2 week report right due to the technology not being able to give right forecasts so far a head.
No, they still do long range forecasting, they just don't issue press releases any more...

The Met Office have no affiliation to Weatherview, so why would it be mentioned on there? I am well aware that forecasting even beyond three days the accuracy diminishes significantly, but as it stands at the moment, based on the many various models that the Met Office use, Nov-Jan is looking mild, that doesn't mean that it definitely will be of course, but at the moment it is looking good...
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stephenprudence
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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by stephenprudence » Sun Nov 03, 2013 11:22 pm

The Met-office may well have November completely wrong. There are signs that November could turn out to be very cold towards the end, totally against what the computer models (used by the UKMO) suggest it would be. I'm certainly not seeing an above average November whatsoever. An interesting development, is the suggestion of the polar vortex becoming lodged across the UK, that would lead to very cold temperatures for the time of year.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


Nigel
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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by Nigel » Mon Nov 04, 2013 8:41 am

stephenprudence wrote:The Met-office may well have November completely wrong. There are signs that November could turn out to be very cold towards the end, totally against what the computer models (used by the UKMO) suggest it would be. I'm certainly not seeing an above average November whatsoever. An interesting development, is the suggestion of the polar vortex becoming lodged across the UK, that would lead to very cold temperatures for the time of year.
That would fit my end october forecast for this Month perfectly, mild for most of month with first cold period of winter at end of month. I hope its wrong, but that is a normal weather pattern . At the moment the outlook is still mild and about as good as it can be for this time of year.
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Dave Brown
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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by Dave Brown » Mon Nov 04, 2013 9:54 am

Nigel wrote:
stephenprudence wrote:The Met-office may well have November completely wrong. There are signs that November could turn out to be very cold towards the end, totally against what the computer models (used by the UKMO) suggest it would be. I'm certainly not seeing an above average November whatsoever. An interesting development, is the suggestion of the polar vortex becoming lodged across the UK, that would lead to very cold temperatures for the time of year.
That would fit my end october forecast for this Month perfectly, mild for most of month with first cold period of winter at end of month. I hope its wrong, but that is a normal weather pattern . At the moment the outlook is still mild and about as good as it can be for this time of year.
So a repeat of 2010 then with blizzards from 30th Nov
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