Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

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stephenprudence
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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by stephenprudence » Sat Oct 12, 2013 3:41 pm

I'm not worried, people should plan and protect their gardens accordingly of course but I don't see anything currently that would suggest the forthcoming winter is going to be very cold. If be more concerned if November was anomalously warm but should we get an autumn cold spell, this, for me, suggests normal winter conditions, however we won't know until at least November what early winter may look like
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Panama Pete
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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by Panama Pete » Sat Oct 12, 2013 3:54 pm

The jet stream is too blame again they say, keep me informed when i need to dig out my banana plantation..... :lol:


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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by Nigel » Sat Oct 12, 2013 4:19 pm

They are blaming same problem we have seen since 2009, the arctic dipole anomoly. Actually arctic sea ice has recovered a bit this year which is good. November typically starts mild with mobility and often finishes with the first severe cold spell of winter. We should not therefore be surprised to see some hard to severe frosts at the end of the month as this follows normal patterns. Doubtless the Express would hail this as a victory.
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cordyman
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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by cordyman » Sat Oct 12, 2013 6:01 pm

November 27th 2012

The express

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/358 ... ars-on-way

October 10th 2011

The express

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/276516 ... ni-ice-age

November 2nd 2011

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/281196 ... it-Britain


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flounder
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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by flounder » Sat Oct 12, 2013 6:02 pm

One of the reasons I stopped buying a daily newspaper was because of sensationalistic journalism. Now I read any news on line and look at the weather via the met office.
I may miss a bit of gossip now and again, but I'm sure it'll be repeated somewhere eventually
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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by jezza » Sat Oct 12, 2013 6:46 pm

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fern Rob
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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by fern Rob » Sat Oct 12, 2013 8:13 pm

Yorkshire Kris wrote:
Nigel wrote:The weather is worryingly lacking mobility , the models keep wanting to show greenland blocks forming, the melting arctic sea ice is allowing high pressure to form where it shouldnt be.
These are all worrying facts.
Will it be worse than 2010 , thats impossible to predict. Will it be bad, also impossible to pre

dict. I would say there is an above average chance of a bad one though.
I better protect my Jubaea this year, just in case.
I'm going to have a high fleece bill to protect all the plants. :shock:
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harryc
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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by harryc » Sat Oct 12, 2013 8:19 pm

Looks like there will be plenty of mobility in the weather from midweek onwards, typical Autumn Faye, so nothing to worry about.

H


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fern Rob
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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by fern Rob » Sat Oct 12, 2013 8:36 pm

harryc wrote:Looks like there will be plenty of mobility in the weather from midweek onwards, typical Autumn Faye, so nothing to worry about.

H
I will not take the risk.
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Tom2006
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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by Tom2006 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 9:06 pm

Certainly nothing to worry about for us well into October (in the current output). The Express print this sort of rubbish every winter, many times over. I suppose now and then (like 2010) it comes to pass, but I don't see it happening this winter. That said prepare for the worse, just incase. icon_thumleft
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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by Nigel » Sat Oct 12, 2013 9:41 pm

Tom2006 wrote:Certainly nothing to worry about for us well into October (in the current output). The Express print this sort of rubbish every winter, many times over. I suppose now and then (like 2010) it comes to pass, but I don't see it happening this winter. That said prepare for the worse, just incase. icon_thumleft
I dont agree.... nothing to worry about temperature wise, but in terms of patterns its a bit ominous for me. They print this crappe every year , based on speculative forecasts by small operations looking to make a name for themselves, sooner or later they will get one right. This year they actually do have a basis for the forecast for once, but its so far off it can change very quickly.
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fern Rob
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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by fern Rob » Sat Oct 12, 2013 9:47 pm

We'll I'm worried about this winter.
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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by Tom2006 » Sat Oct 12, 2013 9:50 pm

Nigel wrote:
Tom2006 wrote:Certainly nothing to worry about for us well into October (in the current output). The Express print this sort of rubbish every winter, many times over. I suppose now and then (like 2010) it comes to pass, but I don't see it happening this winter. That said prepare for the worse, just incase. icon_thumleft
I dont agree.... nothing to worry about temperature wise, but in terms of patterns its a bit ominous for me. They print this crappe every year , based on speculative forecasts by small operations looking to make a name for themselves, sooner or later they will get one right. This year they actually do have a basis for the forecast for once, but its so far off it can change very quickly.
The problem is that they print this many times every winter so they aren't going to be basing it on the same patterns that you have noticed. I agree, that the blocking trends are still evident, as they were last winter, but overall, the deep cold pools that leaked south, generally missed our shores, unlike winter 2010.

Put it this way, winter 2010 broke all known cold/snow records in many areas and last winter lasted longer than many a year due to the lack of any spring, so its going to be a horrific winter if it beats those two.
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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by Kristen » Mon Oct 14, 2013 9:55 am

Yorkshire Kris wrote:I just want to hear a reasoned argument against the forecast.
http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013 ... headlines/

Dunno if it counts as "reasoned argument against" more of a "We're the professionals and we don't know so don't waste your money buying The Express" :)

pretty sure the Met Office made a similar announcement last year ...
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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by Dave Brown » Mon Oct 14, 2013 10:10 am

Tom2006 wrote:I agree, that the blocking trends are still evident, as they were last winter, but overall, the deep cold pools that leaked south, generally missed our shores, unlike winter 2010.
Blocking has occurred through the summer as well, that is why near the east coast has had a below average year so far. The block sat across the country much of the time dragging in cold cloudy weather off the sea.

The fact blocking has occured during summer as well would seem to discount it being linked to Arctic sea Ice, more linked to a global slow down of mobility.
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