Outlook might be changing ????

GREVILLE
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by GREVILLE » Sat Dec 28, 2013 10:46 pm

leunerj wrote:Do any of our resident weather experts want to update this thread? Go on - put your neck on the line and make a prediction for January :ahhh!:
I'll give you a sample of my expertise and promise that "There will be a lot of it about".


Tom2006
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by Tom2006 » Sat Dec 28, 2013 11:08 pm

More of the same although the intensity of the Atlantic storms should fall but rain and wind will continue with snow only for the hill tops and mountains. No sign of any severe frosty /snowy weather out to the middle of January. icon_thumleft
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by harryc » Sun Dec 29, 2013 12:15 am

I think the signs are there for more cold moving in from this relatively mild start to the winter - probably second half of January onwards. Hope I am wrong........


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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by Dave Brown » Sun Dec 29, 2013 12:29 am

leunerj wrote:Do any of our resident weather experts want to update this thread? Go on - put your neck on the line and make a prediction for January :ahhh!:
I predict January 2014 will be colder than July 2013 :lol:
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by Nigel » Sun Dec 29, 2013 9:18 am

harryc wrote:I think the signs are there for more cold moving in from this relatively mild start to the winter - probably second half of January onwards. Hope I am wrong........
I agree Harry, there is quite a significant change going on , this springlike weather is almost over , the cold has been over the USA but that is now shifting to a more normal position. This will mean temps closer to seasonal average, which is cold in January
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Arlon Tishmarsh
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by Arlon Tishmarsh » Sun Dec 29, 2013 9:33 am

leunerj wrote:Do any of our resident weather experts want to update this thread? Go on - put your neck on the line and make a prediction for January :ahhh!:
guillotine.jpg
:lol:
Last edited by Arlon Tishmarsh on Sun Dec 29, 2013 6:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by Conifers » Sun Dec 29, 2013 10:35 am

Dave Brown wrote:
leunerj wrote:Do any of our resident weather experts want to update this thread? Go on - put your neck on the line and make a prediction for January :ahhh!:
I predict January 2014 will be colder than July 2013 :lol:
And I'll predict that the warmest weather in January 2014 will be warmer than the coldest weather in July 2014 :wink:


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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by stephenprudence » Sun Dec 29, 2013 10:28 pm

You may end up choking on those words :lol:

I am starting to think mid-January may be the turning point for some genuinely cold weather, perhaps very cold. By no means certain but I'm starting to think that way, as I think the Vortex will successfully drop down, and also allow a ridge in from the east.

But I'm often wrong and might be this time. icon_thumleft
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by sanatic1234 » Sun Dec 29, 2013 10:45 pm

But lets face it stephen January and February are naturally pretty cold months anyway are they not?
Best regards Aaron :)

Summer 2013 was a good one :-).

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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by Tom2006 » Sun Dec 29, 2013 10:48 pm

stephenprudence wrote:You may end up choking on those words :lol:

I am starting to think mid-January may be the turning point for some genuinely cold weather, perhaps very cold. By no means certain but I'm starting to think that way, as I think the Vortex will successfully drop down, and also allow a ridge in from the east.

But I'm often wrong and might be this time. icon_thumleft
Dont get drawn by the cold loving fools on the forums stephen. I called in to a couple today to see the usual idiots clutching at straws of cold mid jan. In reality the jet is fired up BIG style and will take some calming. Lets hope its in time for march and we can lift air up from africa. icon_colors
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by sanatic1234 » Sun Dec 29, 2013 10:53 pm

That sounds nice tom african air. :>beard<:
Best regards Aaron :)

Summer 2013 was a good one :-).

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stephenprudence
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by stephenprudence » Mon Dec 30, 2013 12:20 am

Tom, drawn in? I don't even visit those model output discussions any more. This is entirely my own analysis of a situation. I have absolutely no interest what other people on other sites are suggesting. I genuinely think it'll get much colder, perhaps by mid-January

Aaron by cold I'm talking frequent frosts, perhaps more widespread snow.

Not out of the range of long term average cold, but neither could it be termed as short term average.

Anyhow it has to turn, to my knowledge there had never been a year (with the exception of 1988-89) when the cold hasn't come at some point.

We do have to consider cold at an up coming potential, despite, at the moment, models subduing it somewhat... the one thing I've learnt from model watching is how a seemingly fixed pattern can suddenly change, and I've witnessed this many many times over the years prior, so at the moment all's good, but there's no reason it won't change.

That said yes, it's mostly frost free at the moment.. I wouldn't call it mild, I think that's obtusely optimistic, but it's not an issue, and may even aid slow, intermittent growth, which is much better than frequent frost and ice. Live for the moment, yes, but also anticipate the future.

Im not overly worried though about this, as the currently pattern just shows, a cool period, which very limited frosts icon_cheers
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USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
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Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by fern Rob » Mon Dec 30, 2013 1:04 am

Looks like a lot of wet weather is coming our way.
Rob
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by Nigel » Mon Dec 30, 2013 7:34 pm

stephenprudence wrote:Tom, drawn in? I don't even visit those model output discussions any more. This is entirely my own analysis of a situation. I have absolutely no interest what other people on other sites are suggesting. I genuinely think it'll get much colder, perhaps by mid-January

Aaron by cold I'm talking frequent frosts, perhaps more widespread snow.

Not out of the range of long term average cold, but neither could it be termed as short term average.

Anyhow it has to turn, to my knowledge there had never been a year (with the exception of 1988-89) when the cold hasn't come at some point.

We do have to consider cold at an up coming potential, despite, at the moment, models subduing it somewhat... the one thing I've learnt from model watching is how a seemingly fixed pattern can suddenly change, and I've witnessed this many many times over the years prior, so at the moment all's good, but there's no reason it won't change.

That said yes, it's mostly frost free at the moment.. I wouldn't call it mild, I think that's obtusely optimistic, but it's not an issue, and may even aid slow, intermittent growth, which is much better than frequent frost and ice. Live for the moment, yes, but also anticipate the future.

Im not overly worried though about this, as the currently pattern just shows, a cool period, which very limited frosts icon_cheers
I think thats a pretty good assessment actually.
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by sanatic1234 » Mon Dec 30, 2013 8:33 pm

I suppose we and certainly including myself i doing it all the time, call it mild as compared to the winters we have had so far it does feel rather mild, but i agree with you it can change at any time and i will make sure i am ready for when/if it does. :-) but less frost is great. :-)
Best regards Aaron :)

Summer 2013 was a good one :-).

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