Outlook might be changing ????

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Dave Brown
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by Dave Brown » Thu Jan 09, 2014 9:08 am

Easterlies are a nightmare here, cold, cloudy conditions with temps bearly climbing above freezing. This is why exotics are more widespread the further west you go. It's not the minima that determines it, it the lack of maxima. :roll:
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Tom2006
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by Tom2006 » Thu Jan 09, 2014 9:47 am

Certainly a worrying trend for some cold easterlies to hit from around the 15th onwards. Fortunately some weather models want to continue a more Atlantic (although quieter) dominated theme. Lets hope its the latter.
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by Kristen » Thu Jan 09, 2014 7:04 pm

We have some building work, which was supposed to have finished by now but is going to take a few weeks more.

If anyone has any opinions on likelihood of snow in the East during February that would be appreciated.
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by Tom2006 » Fri Jan 10, 2014 12:23 am

Certainly strong signs that the 15th onwards probably for 5-7 days should see it turn more wintery. After that its impossible to say unfortunately. Personally I think the chance of deep long term snowy weather is less likely in Feb but then again winter 47 didn't really kick in until late jan and lasted well into march. At the moment I wouldn't put anything off.
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by stephenprudence » Fri Jan 10, 2014 12:43 am

Dave Brown wrote:Easterlies are a nightmare here, cold, cloudy conditions with temps bearly climbing above freezing. This is why exotics are more widespread the further west you go. It's not the minima that determines it, it the lack of maxima. :roll:
Well 2010 didn't help and I recall getting constantly higher maxima than most, but the minima (which was amongst the coldest in the whole country over a long period) disposed of my garden, pretty much.

Still I feel whilst it's healthy to prepare for cold, I think we've been hit so hard by cold recently, that we almost expect the worst now. I can see a period of cold weather, with some fairly low minimas, but while the continent isn't that cold, it shouldn't be plant killing cold.
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USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by sanatic1234 » Fri Jan 10, 2014 8:22 pm

Dave Brown wrote:Easterlies are a nightmare here, cold, cloudy conditions with temps bearly climbing above freezing. This is why exotics are more widespread the further west you go. It's not the minima that determines it, it the lack of maxima. :roll:
Agree with that 150% I flippin hate easterlies more because I am located east of the UK! so i feel the full force of it. :-(
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Summer 2013 was a good one :-).

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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by stephenprudence » Fri Jan 10, 2014 11:41 pm

It may be cold, but it's not going to be brutally cold. I just checked into the weather forums, and I see everyone panicking about another failed cold spell, well some panic and some delusions.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by Dave Brown » Sat Jan 11, 2014 8:48 am

stephenprudence wrote:I just checked into the weather forums, and I see everyone panicking about another failed cold spell, well some panic and some delusions.
Best news I've has all week :lol: :lol: :lol:

With each week that passes, another week closer to April :wink:
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by stephenprudence » Sat Jan 11, 2014 9:40 am

I have to be cautious about saying the cold spell won't happen because it still may however its looking on shaky ground. The other great thing is we're due a period of mild southwesterlies in a week which may or may not happen but the signals are good !
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by Tom2006 » Sat Jan 11, 2014 11:11 am

stephenprudence wrote:I have to be cautious about saying the cold spell won't happen because it still may however its looking on shaky ground. The other great thing is we're due a period of mild southwesterlies in a week which may or may not happen but the signals are good !
Wise words but every day that passes is another one that reduces the likely intensity of any cold that does arrive. This winter just has the feeling of an early 00s winter. Lets hope we get really lucky and we have a proper spring instead of like last year.
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by stephenprudence » Sat Jan 11, 2014 11:27 am

To be honest in the 'mild years', the Springs would nearly always be colder in nature than the Winter months - the pattern ensured that early Spring was generally a cool affair, but it was never so cold like last year. We would often encounter snow, sleet, hail, and numerous showers in March and April after a generally snow free Winter, though none stuck around for long, and generally it would be mixed with milder weather at times. If we are reverting back to the normal recent patterns (between 1988 and 2008) then we can expect a coolish Spring. Hopefully nothing like last year though.

As with the milder years though, generally December and January were either average, mild, or very mild. February often followed with at least one notable cold snap and this is where we would usually encounter our lowest temperatures of the season (here -2C to -4C)
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by Dave Brown » Sat Jan 11, 2014 12:00 pm

I don't have hard evidence to back this up, but my perception is that we get blocking at some point in most years.

Sometimes the blocking occurs in Oct/Nov, giving early frost, but followed by a stormy Dec/Jan/Feb and more blocking in Mar/Apr. This gives a shorter frost free season but a milder winter so things survive. Worst case is mild stormy Oct/Nov followed by blocking Dec/Jan/Feb and a mild stormy Mar/Apr. This gives a longer frost free season, but a killer of a winter. :ahhh!:
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by stephenprudence » Sat Jan 11, 2014 12:16 pm

Yes Dave, I'd agree with this, and it's definitely we've had the 'benefit' (in so that it educates us) of seeing during the last decade or so.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by cordyman » Sat Jan 11, 2014 12:49 pm

stephenprudence wrote:To be honest in the 'mild years', the Springs would nearly always be colder in nature than the Winter months - the pattern ensured that early Spring was generally a cool affair, but it was never so cold like last year. We would often encounter snow, sleet, hail, and numerous showers in March and April after a generally snow free Winter, though none stuck around for long, and generally it would be mixed with milder weather at times. If we are reverting back to the normal recent patterns (between 1988 and 2008) then we can expect a coolish Spring. Hopefully nothing like last year though.

As with the milder years though, generally December and January were either average, mild, or very mild. February often followed with at least one notable cold snap and this is where we would usually encounter our lowest temperatures of the season (here -2C to -4C)
-2 to -4*c lowest of the season, i'll have some more of that being the norm! icon_salut


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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by Tom2006 » Sat Jan 11, 2014 8:57 pm

It was the norm up here until 08 hit!
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