The yo-yo thread, for whence and whom it may concern.

[Springy]

Damn, that minus seven and below looks a bit close to Abingdon for my liking Stephen!!

[stephenprudence]

To me around Worcester, I'd expect around -5C at the height of the spell, although Worcester would usually get -5C in an average winter, and maybe colder, this is earlier than you would expect to see such a temperature.

Abingdon will probably get a similar temperature to Worcester, around -5C or so. I'd expect places like Wallingford to get around -7C or so.

[Springy]

To me around Worcester, I'd expect around -5C at the height of the spell, although Worcester would usually get -5C in an average winter, and maybe colder, this is earlier than you would expect to see such a temperature.

Abingdon will probably get a similar temperature to Worcester, around -5C or so. I'd expect places like Wallingford to get around -7C or so.

Thankyou Stephen for your forecast. I expect Benson (near Wallingford) will be colder than here as it always is!

[Tom2006]

Certainly some very strange charts being modelled. Not a good start to the winter. Glad im off this weekend to get the last bits sorted.

[stephenprudence]

Yes Benson (and Wallingford) seem to be in that very rural, frost hollow situation, so -6C to -7C would definitely be probable at some point in that area.

A list of major towns cities and their expected absolute minimum temperatures (including members locations)

+2C to +4C:
Isles of Scilly
St Ives (Cornwall)
Falmouth
Land's End
Padstow
Torquay
St Catherines Point
Llandudno
Aberdaron
Manston
Bridlington
Weybourne
Ramsey (IOM)
Southsea Island

0C to +2C

Portsmouth City
Southampton City
Hayling Island
Weymouth
Great Yarmouth
Milford Haven
Colwyn Bay
Fraserburgh
Margate
Douglas

0C to -2C

London
Southend
Norwich
Middlesbrough
Newcastle upon Tyne
Brighton
Holyhead
Wick
Stornoway
Londonderry
Gravesend

-2C to -4C

Belfast
Swansea
Rhyl
Liverpool
Nottingham
Leicester
York
Darlington
Maidstone
Leeds

-4C to -6C

Prestatyn
Chester
Birmingham
Worcester
Gloucester
Exeter
Manchester
Shawbury
Bristol
Oxford
Luton
Southport
Edinburgh

below -6C

Crosby
Benson
Hawarden
Sennybridge
Altnaharra
Mons grampius.

[Nigel]

I am seeing the first cold plunge of winter ,nothing unusual there , and it looks short lived, ie only a few days.

The only worry I have is that whilst temps will recover , without mobility after the warm up ,the temperatures can only slowly erode again. Lack of mobility has been a feature of our weather recently, the spring that never arrived, July 2013 heatwave, and without mobility it would be every bit as cold and prolonged as it was hot in july.

[stephenprudence]

Sorry Nigel this cold spell is not normal any more. It is showing hallmarks of sustained cold periods, such as 2009. I do not subscribe to it being a normal short lived spell on the way. The majority of ensembles have this lasting past week 2. That is not far off the longevity of the spell in December 2010. At the moment it's highly unlikely to be as cold as December 2010, however if this cold spell gets sustained or includes long periods of lying snow, then this will at the very least be as bad as 2009 for western areas. It no longer has the look of a 90s cold spell I'm afraid - and I am very familiar with the synoptics of 2009 and 2010 because I spent a huge amount of time analysing them at the time!

[cheshirepalms]

Why do you think Crosby will be in the lowest temperature band likely? I know it was badly hit in 2010, but more down to bad luck than a known frost hotspot. I'm not protecting as extensively this winter down to many reasons, but one is faith that any cold this winter won't have the longevity as it last winter/spring. I will be taking precautions though so thanks for the early warning.

[stephenprudence]

Actually Crosby is a well known frost hollow when Northeast winds occur. You watch, Crosby will record the lower temperatures on Merseyside in the next two weeks.

[Conifers]

below -6C

Can add Otterburn (Northumbs, up in the Cheviot Hills) to that section.

Edinburgh I'd think will be one or two sections higher up, same as Newcastle or only a degree or so colder.

[stephenprudence]

Quite alarming predictions for November... and those temperatures on the west coast would be much much lower than suggested on this map.



This is only a broad potential, as its too far away for certain but it seems right for the pattern shown. Reminds me of the temperatures experienced in 2009/2010.

[cordyman]

I'm just seeing crispy trails, looking forward to an end to this rainy spell tbf

[Delboy]

Thanks Stephen, looks like my next day off will be spent attempting to sort the garden

[Tom2006]

Not looking good at all.......

http://oi40.tinypic.com/2s1m4ip.jpg

[Nigel]

BBC weather link http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/24944891

Stephen its a short sharp cold spell with temps recovering after 2 or 3 days. However, I agree that lack of mobility can see a fallback in the days that follow. I dont see how we can be certain of anything right now, its a worrying chart , but I still dont see Greenland blocking forming , and the huge difference from the years you quote is position of jetsream which as yet has not entrenched way to the south.