Hardy Tropicals UK

Well winter weather is generally totally rubbish. At least what's coming isn't rubbish bin a plant killing capacity.

cordyman wrote:I value both Nigel and stephens forcasts.

But I'm in the wrap it for narnia camp, so whether I get minus 12 or plus 5, doesn't change my protection methods.

Same here, I'm planning to start building my camp this weekend, so when the freezing starts I have no worries, ropelights switch on automatically

Assuming the northerly wind doesn't happen down the line, it could be very dry from today onward for much of the country. There's won't be as much frost as you might expect from high pressure so drying out won't be as fast, but it will dry out eventually. Personally I prefer it to stay damp, because that tempers any potential severe frost later in the season. An excellent outlook would be something along the lines of mild high pressure, and then a resurgence of the Atlantic. That would take us nicely well into December!

Nigel wrote: At times the low pressure can disappear from west of iceland and reappear in the next model. Panic time comes when it disappears 10 days out and stays disappeared for a couple of days.

Stephen..... how close are you to panic time..... I am watching 12Z closely today.
If 12Z keeps the same outlook I think we have something to really worry about.

It's looking somewhat cooler from around 7 Dec, with possible frosts?

All 3 big models in agreement that a significant cold spell on the way but no agreement if it's just a 2-3 day spell or longer.

H

12Z came through with a good forecast after a run of very bad ones. Probably not going to happen now.

I would wait for the ECM before assuming the northerly is not going to happen and besides it's too far away yet, so was probably never going to happen

Complete back track now. Too far out to worry about yet.

Very often when you are stuck in a pattern, 10 days out it offers change, in summer when its raining it happens all the time. This is usually gone in the next run or the next day, but this has stuck around now for 2 days and was supported in the ECM , i am just relieved todays chart reverts to pattern, because that would have been the first real cold spell of winter.

The outlook looks good, it was always shown to be a short lived northerly, however, it was starting to look like a very powerful northerly, fortunately it's been weakened somewhat. All good, at the moment, it looks like, apart from a few light air frosts, going into December and maybe to mid-December will be average to above average.

Nigel wrote:

Nigel wrote: At times the low pressure can disappear from west of iceland and reappear in the next model. Panic time comes when it disappears 10 days out and stays disappeared for a couple of days.

Stephen..... how close are you to panic time..... I am watching 12Z closely today.
If 12Z keeps the same outlook I think we have something to really worry about.

I kept an open mind, because it looked like it could be short lived so I wasn't too worried, but the ECM and GFS are similar tonight.

stephenprudence wrote:

Nigel wrote:

Nigel wrote: At times the low pressure can disappear from west of iceland and reappear in the next model. Panic time comes when it disappears 10 days out and stays disappeared for a couple of days.

Stephen..... how close are you to panic time..... I am watching 12Z closely today.
If 12Z keeps the same outlook I think we have something to really worry about.

I kept an open mind, because it looked like it could be short lived so I wasn't too worried, but the ECM and GFS are similar tonight.

Yep its when the models move to an agreement over 2 or 3 days its time to worry, they were starting to do that, but it didnt happen thank goodness. The cold air isnt far away now , never is at this time of year, lets hope this friendly high continues to shield us.

ECM still suggesting a 3 day bitterly cold spell especially in the north next weekend, which I suppose is not to bad as long as everyone is prepared.

H

GFS has just delivered one of the most severe outputs Ive ever seen, fortunately it's a load of rubbish, and very unlikely to occur!