Record early Australian monsoon + record early cyclone!

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Troppoz
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Record early Australian monsoon + record early cyclone!

Post by Troppoz » Mon Nov 18, 2013 11:34 pm

Our monsoons usually dont kick in until between Christmas and New Year but its not even the last week of November and we have our first monsoon trough developing and a monsoonal low expected to hit Darwin on the weekend.

This has NEVER happened before in Darwin weather records and is happening a full month earlier than any monsoon that I have lived through. Thankfully they are not expecting the low to turn into a cyclone so it should just give us a few days of torrential tropical rain and squally weather! icon_cheers

A beautiful, wet, cool morning here. Over 80mm in the last hour or so and a very pleasant 24c...already doubled our monthly average rainfall this month and we are only just over half way through November!!

Just further evidence of a changing climate, not that we needed it :roll:
Last edited by Troppoz on Wed Nov 20, 2013 2:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Sean


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Re: Record early Australian monsoon

Post by Tom2006 » Tue Nov 19, 2013 12:15 am

Troppoz wrote:Our monsoons usually dont kick in until between Christmas and New Year but its not even the last week of November and we have our first monsoon trough developing and a monsoonal low expected to hit Darwin on the weekend.

This has NEVER happened before in Darwin weather records and is happening a full month earlier than any monsoon that I have lived through. Thankfully they are not expecting the low to turn into a cyclone so it should just give us a few days of torrential tropical rain and squally weather! icon_cheers

A beautiful, wet, cool morning here. Over 80mm in the last hour or so and a very pleasant 24c...already doubled our monthly average rainfall this month and we are only just over half way through November!!

Just further evidence of a changing climate, not that we needed it :roll:
Sounds interesting over there. Get some video if you can. Id love heavy rain in those tempertures. Like you say massive changes in the global climates. Just announced today that the once thought to be a flat lining global temperature has in fact seen an increase.
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Troppoz
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Re: Record early Australian monsoon

Post by Troppoz » Tue Nov 19, 2013 10:47 am

Ill try, its mostly been falling during the evening and early morning so not much to see. This mornings rain was an exception so far but Ill have the camera ready to go. Oh and there is construction happening in the garden so if it looks like a building site thats because it is... :roll:

Only reached 29.4c today, our first sub-30c maximum since 3rd July.

Update on the low pressure system: The weather bureau are giving the low pressure system a slight chance of developing into a cyclone, around the same time its due to be in this vicinity. Theres 2 main models actually, one with a direct crossing near Darwin and one crossing further south in the Kimberly region of Western Australia. Im keen for a bit of stormy weather, if it does develop it wont be strong so just some wet and windy weather ahead for us.
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Re: Record early Australian monsoon

Post by kata » Tue Nov 19, 2013 10:49 am

Keep safe Sean!

icon_sunny
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Rain...nowt but rain...Welcome to Lancashire............ :lol: :lol: :lol:


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Re: Record early Australian monsoon

Post by Troppoz » Tue Nov 19, 2013 10:54 am

Cheers Kata! Its nothing to worry about at all. icon_thumright

For any weather nerds who might be interested in following the development of a monsoonal trough system and tropical low might find this latest video from Oz Cyclone Chasers about the current weather situation interesting. Very informative and comprehensible. The gibberish at the start about sponsorship only last a minute or so:

Sean


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Re: Record early Australian monsoon

Post by flounder » Tue Nov 19, 2013 3:22 pm

Troppoz wrote:Only reached 29.4c today, our first sub-30c maximum since 3rd July.
Sean you poor thing, how do you cope? :shock:
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Re: Record early Australian monsoon

Post by Troppoz » Wed Nov 20, 2013 2:45 pm

LOL! As long as its only for a day or two I can cope. :lol:

OK latest modelling looks interesting, both the US and European centres have a category 2 tropical cyclone hitting Darwin on Monday next week. So category 2 on the Australian scale is sustained winds of up to 130km/hr, enough to make a mess, but not enough to be dangerous. Once again this will be a record for the earliest tropical cyclone to affect Australia...
TC.png
Biggest drama for me is my plants, Ive got a massive Amorphophallus titamum that would be torn to shreds in those kinds of winds, not to mention all of my rare palms, bromeliads and anthuriums. A busy week ahead for me getting this all sorted, plus since there is an extension being put on the house so Ill need to work with the builders to get all of the stuff cleaned up and fastened down, after all I dont want to deal with a piece of iron sheeting travelling at 130km/hr :shock:
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Re: Record early Australian monsoon + record early cyclone!

Post by Conifers » Wed Nov 20, 2013 6:19 pm

Looks like you might escape the worst of it, with the strongest winds about 80km south of Darwin?


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Re: Record early Australian monsoon + record early cyclone!

Post by Troppoz » Wed Nov 20, 2013 7:19 pm

Hopefully we do, but its too far out just yet to be 100% certain of where it will make landfall, and with the system still well over 3000km away a margin of 80km is pretty insignificant. Cyclones are notoriously hard to predict, but north Australian cyclones are the most unpredictable of all apparently. Most of the models are in fair agreement that it will impact somewhere along the north west coast, exactly where is still conjecture. As we get closer to landfall we will have a much clearer idea of where it will land. Time will tell...

Direct hit or a glancing blow, either way some heavy rain and gales are on their way!
Sean


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Re: Record early Australian monsoon + record early cyclone!

Post by Troppoz » Sun Nov 24, 2013 2:41 am

Tropical Cyclone Alessia category 1 (potentially cat 2) is due to affect the Darwin region tonight, the eye crossing the coast somewhere to the south. It will bring gales of up to 120km and as we will be on its north east quadrant we will get the strongest winds and rain. So while not a dangerous system it will bring down trees and power lines, damage roofs, cars etc and flooding in its wake, enough to be a significant nuisance and interruption.

Make no doubt though, this system is unprecedented! The Darwin region has already recorded an extremely wet November already with some stations near the city centre recording over 500mm so far this November, which not only exceeds the average of 135mm for the month but SMASHES the records (since 1884), and we still have a week left with a tropical cyclone and monsoonal conditions ahead. Predictions of 500mm over the next few days will take us to around 1000mm or more for the month, unheard of in November!! The ground is already so sodden and waterlogged that it wont take too much wind to bring down big trees...

Latest predictions are that after tracking westerly once moving inland it will eventually recurve before returning this way, moving back out to sea and redeveloping into a severe tropical cyclone, so Alessia has many surprises in store for us yet!

Biggest drama for me is having to bring in my plants like my titan arum that will be ripped to shreds in the winds or smashed by falling branches, plus secure the patio as best I can. The builders did an awesome job of securing all their stuff like roofing iron etc so thats not a worry.

Oh well, about 12 hours to go before she strikes, better get started!
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Latest forecast tracking map for TC Alessia
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Re: Record early Australian monsoon + record early cyclone!

Post by Conifers » Sun Nov 24, 2013 9:16 am

Hope all goes well!


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Re: Record early Australian monsoon + record early cyclone!

Post by Dave Brown » Sun Nov 24, 2013 9:43 am

Good luck icon_thumright

Is this all inked to the El Nino cycle ?

As in El Niño warm water and heavy rain affect the western Americas, and at the same time Indonesia has cooler water and drought. Then in La Niña does the opposite.
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Re: Record early Australian monsoon + record early cyclone!

Post by Troppoz » Sun Nov 24, 2013 2:18 pm

Well that was an anticlimax, highest breeze of 61km and 14mm of drizzle :lol:

Apparently as it passed through the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf moving towards Darwin it became affected by upper level wind shear to the extent that the eye wall was tilted so much that the mid-level of it showed up on radar over 100km east of where the eye wall was at sea level! So instead of a vertical eye wall this one was practically horizontal, a 1/10 incline :shock: The effect of the shear also meant that it was dragged quite quickly across the 31c waters of the gulf, not giving it time to intensify. Its now a low pressure system overland moving east.

Its still looking like more rain will come over the next week as the low sits overland before deciding whether to go back west, east, south or just die. In the meantime the monsoonal flow will continue so good rain for the foreseeable future icon_thumright

Dave Brown wrote:Good luck icon_thumright

Is this all inked to the El Nino cycle ?

As in El Niño warm water and heavy rain affect the western Americas, and at the same time Indonesia has cooler water and drought. Then in La Niña does the opposite.
Dave its not all so cut and dried. Our wettest year in 1998 was a moderate La Nina year, we had 2776.6mm, over 1000mm above average. Then the year after was a strong La Nina and yet was a dry year, so there is some correlation but other factors like the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Madden-Julian Oscillation all interplay with their varying strengths

Were in a neutral ENSO right now, but our sea surface temperature are very high and soupy, theres a lot of energy that has to go somewhere...
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Re: Record early Australian monsoon + record early cyclone!

Post by Conifers » Sun Nov 24, 2013 4:08 pm

Troppoz wrote:Dave its not all so cut and dried.
Sort of, more cut and wet? :lol:

Glad to hear you escaped!


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