Very stormy period coming up

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stephenprudence
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Location: Heswall, Wirral

Re: Very stormy period coming up

Post by stephenprudence » Fri Feb 07, 2014 10:36 am

In my experience annual rainfall never deviates hugely from it's average - usually in the UK it's around 100mm either side of it's annual average. To me this suggests we will have a dry summer, or a dry Autumn.. I hope the former, as I can't see us having drought problems with all the rain we've had, at least for first few months of Summer. Very rarely does a weather pattern such a heavy persistent rain events last entire seasons.

The problem is, we're in a no win situation here, because alot of us want to rain to cease, especially those in flood prone areas.. however if this does happen, we run the risk of developing very cold, frosty spells, which is something we don't want either. The best case scenario, the Azores high ridging in giving us mild and dry weather is the least possible outcome at this moment, so no win situation.

For me, I want the unsettled weather to continue for my own personal sake.. but this is because Im not being negatively affected, but I understand the implications of this, for people who are negatively affected.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


otorongo
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Location: sub-subtropical London

Re: Very stormy period coming up

Post by otorongo » Fri Feb 07, 2014 12:01 pm

Huge Atlantic storm heading STRAIGHT for Britain will hit in just 10 hours

A deep low Atlantic pressure system miles of the UK coast will whip up 150mph winds and violent sea surges as it barrels into the country.

At its centre the intense storm will see pressure drop to just 944mb - seven millibars LOWER than the Great Storm of 1987.

Experts said the worst of the weather is due to set in tonight before a relentless onslaught of wind and rain over the weekend.

They warned communities to prepare for trees to be torn from the ground, roofs ripped from buildings and the flooding crisis to dramatically deteriorate.

Meteorological projections show winds of 12 on the Beaufort scale - Hurricane force - hitting the west coast on tonight and into tomorrow.

Forecasters have warned exceptional low pressure driving the storm threatens to whip up gales which could exceed 100mph - way off the Beaufort scale.
Image

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature/45 ... ern-coasts

I'm leaving for Brazil tonight, may need to bring a few plants inside. Not sure what to do with the blowaway GH, but it may be the last time I see it...


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stephenprudence
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Location: Heswall, Wirral

Re: Very stormy period coming up

Post by stephenprudence » Fri Feb 07, 2014 12:45 pm

Some wave height models are now predicting swells of 70 feet and breaking wave heights of between 50-70 feet in some places.. that is devastating.. and more akin to a Tsunami than an Atlantic storm. Fortunately in many cases the waves won't cause too much damage because of natural defences such as islands and natural harbours etc.

not just that but the next load of damaging storms are being picked up on models.. this is definitely one for the history books.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Dave Brown
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Re: Very stormy period coming up

Post by Dave Brown » Fri Feb 07, 2014 3:39 pm

1287 all over again. http://www.villagenet.co.uk/history/1287-storms.php

Apparently huge storms a flooding was and real issue as the Medievel warm period gave way to the start of the Mini Ice Age. Many Thames flood defences were built with mass labour in the 12th 13th Centuries.
Best regards
Dave
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ourarka
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Joined: Tue Jan 11, 2011 10:01 pm
Location: East Sussex

Re: Very stormy period coming up

Post by ourarka » Fri Feb 07, 2014 4:30 pm

So what setup has arisen this winter to cause this unprecedented Atlantic attack?

Second question ..... what events need to transpire in order to put an end to it? How likely are they, and what sort of timescale would they be likely to happen on? Could this theoretically continue in to late March, April etc?

Despite being in the south-east, my garden has coped pretty well being fairly high. No standing water and so, apart from not being able to do much in the veg garden, it should mean the soil (or air) isn't too cold when things start warming up. Really feel for those many, many people who are under water and from a selfish point of view I want to get out golfing and gardening!!!


Tom2006
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Location: East Yorkshire UK

Re: Very stormy period coming up

Post by Tom2006 » Fri Feb 07, 2014 4:43 pm

If that storm comes to pass it will cause untold damage!!!...quite scary really. Feel so sorry for those living down there.

As to the cause. Well its due to the intense cold leaving the US and Canada moving over the Atlantic driven by the very strong jet stream. This one is also pulling in warm and very moist air from the south which fuels it even more. As to whats causing the intense cold and all factors to combine no one knows but personally I think its due to the climate change caused by man polluting the earth.
Most wanted list - Any Young Trachycarpus and/or fern.


RozDevon
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Location: South Devon UK

Re: Very stormy period coming up

Post by RozDevon » Fri Feb 07, 2014 9:36 pm

The storm is hitting here now.
Front garden hedge is doing the Mexican wave.
Have tied some of it to supports as parts of it are separating due to the buffeting back and forth.
Some shrubs have branches ripped off.
It was such a lovely calm sunny day as will.
Got lots of pots of perennials planted out and tidying up done.
See what it all looks like in the morning!


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