Any end in sight? Any 'normal' weather on the horizon?

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ourarka
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Any end in sight? Any 'normal' weather on the horizon?

Post by ourarka » Sun Feb 09, 2014 5:02 pm

Just wondered if there were any tiny olive branches that those in the know could hand me, regarding the end of these incessant storms?

My reason is not entirely altruistic - I don't have major damage, or a bedroom full of water, but am waiting to get some major refurbishment done on the house. The builders have been putting it off and off, but desperate but for it not to be too long until it starts.


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kata
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Re: Any end in sight? Any 'normal' weather on the horizon?

Post by kata » Sun Feb 09, 2014 5:13 pm

Doubt it Ouraka, especially down South,

Maybe our resident weather forcaster Stevie knows something positive.

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Re: Any end in sight? Any 'normal' weather on the horizon?

Post by Nigel » Sun Feb 09, 2014 5:19 pm

I think the answer is yes. The massive cold block sat over the atlantic that was energising our storms is set to diminish its hold in the coming week. This doesnt mean an end to atlantic weather , but it does mean normalisation as the wind is literally taken out of the sails of the storm systems developing.
Therefore by end of next week i think we will be under the influence of `normal ` atlantic weather rather than this souped up stream of superstorms.
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stephenprudence
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Re: Any end in sight? Any 'normal' weather on the horizon?

Post by stephenprudence » Sun Feb 09, 2014 6:15 pm

Yes there are signs of the weather calming down, which is good news, like Nigel says, a normal Atlantic influence taking over - aka depressions, rather than storms, and therefore milder weather mixed in with ridges, a typical British outlook. icon_thumleft

There is a small chance of something colder at the end of the month but that would come with more settled weather which I think many people would happily take, regardless of frosts etc, as it's a respite from flooding, winds, and rain.
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Re: Any end in sight? Any 'normal' weather on the horizon?

Post by Nigel » Mon Feb 10, 2014 9:24 am

With every model now it looks more and more like this terrible weather will come to a lively end next weekend. After that normal atlantic weather with ridges of high pressure. No sign of cold from the east either. A few light to medium frosts under ridges of high pressure when the wind dies down and skies clear, to be expected.
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Re: Any end in sight? Any 'normal' weather on the horizon?

Post by ourarka » Mon Feb 10, 2014 1:16 pm

Nigel wrote:With every model now it looks more and more like this terrible weather will come to a lively end next weekend.
Music to my ears (and many others too I am sure). Fingers crossed!


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Re: Any end in sight? Any 'normal' weather on the horizon?

Post by stephenprudence » Mon Feb 10, 2014 3:38 pm

The last storm could be the most severe yet... Current thoughts to a damaging storm... Not great news.. Also it's an idea to remain cautious about the weather settling down
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USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
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Last 5 winter minimums:
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Re: Any end in sight? Any 'normal' weather on the horizon?

Post by Nigel » Mon Feb 10, 2014 4:14 pm

stephenprudence wrote:The last storm could be the most severe yet... Current thoughts to a damaging storm... Not great news.. Also it's an idea to remain cautious about the weather settling down
Stephen, I dont see where the energy will come from after next weekend, the vortex that was driving the storms is breaking down now. It seems impossible to me for those storms to continue given the current GFS
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Re: Any end in sight? Any 'normal' weather on the horizon?

Post by stephenprudence » Mon Feb 10, 2014 6:32 pm

Wednesdays storm and Fridays storm have just popped up out of nowhere though.. it was looking like settling down after the last storm we had.. I think we have some latent energy which may by the driving force for some more storms.. I don't believe were out of the woods after Friday, I expect more storms systems gradually losing their power over the course of the next few weeks.

Wednesday has the potential to be devastating if the storm tracks further north over northern England.. it's one not to be taken lightly, and providing there are no downgrades in strength in the next 30-40 hours, then we could be looking at one of the strongest storms for the past 20 years or so.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: Any end in sight? Any 'normal' weather on the horizon?

Post by Yorkshire Kris » Mon Feb 10, 2014 6:40 pm

stephenprudence wrote:Wednesdays storm and Fridays storm have just popped up out of nowhere though.. it was looking like settling down after the last storm we had.. I think we have some latent energy which may by the driving force for some more storms.. I don't believe were out of the woods after Friday, I expect more storms systems gradually losing their power over the course of the next few weeks.

Wednesday has the potential to be devastating if the storm tracks further north over northern England.. it's one not to be taken lightly, and providing there are no downgrades in strength in the next 30-40 hours, then we could be looking at one of the strongest storms for the past 20 years or so.
Thats the sort of weather warning to be shouting about. Worse storm in 20 years.


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stephenprudence
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Re: Any end in sight? Any 'normal' weather on the horizon?

Post by stephenprudence » Mon Feb 10, 2014 6:55 pm

Image

This will have an incredible 'sting' to it.. the way it moves makes it highly volatile... I suspect it'll need watching.. it looks nasty. The big 'eye' is cause for concern too, as it draws dry air into the flow, it could result in something akin to the Burns Day storms of 1990.. but that's the absolute worst case scenario.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: Any end in sight? Any 'normal' weather on the horizon?

Post by Nigel » Mon Feb 10, 2014 9:04 pm

I dont think we should be surprised at this weeks storms, all the ingredients are still there. Its not until the weekend the ingredients disperse.
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