the implications of such a mild winter.

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stephenprudence
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the implications of such a mild winter.

Post by stephenprudence » Sun Feb 23, 2014 5:53 pm

8 years ago we saw the warmest year on record in UK, more recently this has been beaten by 2011, however 2006 was defined by an exceptionally mild winter, the warmest on record for some even surpassing 1988.

Now I don't want to claim I know what's going to happen or even force this idea on people but I think given how mild this winter has been for some, and given I personally expect a summer not too dissimilar to least years, I believe there's a possibility we could get a record warm year for UK in 2014, I also believe the chance of a record warm year globally is relatively high.

Again this is only my opinion based on current patterns and where I expect them to go, but could be wrong of course.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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kata
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Re: the implications of such a mild winter.

Post by kata » Sun Feb 23, 2014 8:42 pm

Its going to get wetter and warmer the experts say Stevie,

More flooding ..remember they the experts said this, just so I don't get shouted down.

:lol: :lol:

Not many years ago they said the Ice age was coming...It never happened.
http://flowersnpalms.com/floraandfaunauk/

Rain...nowt but rain...Welcome to Lancashire............ :lol: :lol: :lol:


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Blairs
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Re: the implications of such a mild winter.

Post by Blairs » Sun Feb 23, 2014 9:56 pm

On the implications side, I was wondering if we will have a lot more pests in the garden? I have found a few Vine Weevil and piles of slugs. The damp wet winter has made a haven for slugs and none will have died from frost this year. A few plants are showing moulds from the rains.

Positives are half hardy plants have sailed through this year and put on growth - a lot of plants have put on growth through this winter. Top part of my garden has not seen frost but has seen the gales.


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cordyman
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Re: the implications of such a mild winter.

Post by cordyman » Sun Feb 23, 2014 10:00 pm

Like the sound of that Stephen! I'll take more bug spraying for a hot year, good time to put slug pellets down next weekend by the sounds of it too icon_cheers


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stephenprudence
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Re: the implications of such a mild winter.

Post by stephenprudence » Sun Feb 23, 2014 10:09 pm

If winters are to get milder in general, we will see an increase in pests... Weevils could become a serious problem over time however that's assuming it becomes warmer and wetter over time in winter.. We will still get cold winters of course. Also agriculture will seek new eco-friendly remedies to these things that science will discover in time.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


GREVILLE
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Re: the implications of such a mild winter.

Post by GREVILLE » Sun Feb 23, 2014 10:22 pm

I understand Atlantic temperatures are way up thanks to the position of the jet stream for most of this winter. Would it be true to say that unless we have persistent north to north-easterlies that all other airstreams will contribute to above average temperatures for the growing season?


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cordyman
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Re: the implications of such a mild winter.

Post by cordyman » Sun Feb 23, 2014 10:29 pm

Won't it take another uber cold snap in the states for the jet to be in its current location again for our winter to be like this again, which would be akin to narnia again eg. 1 in 100 etc?


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stephenprudence
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Re: the implications of such a mild winter.

Post by stephenprudence » Sun Feb 23, 2014 11:37 pm

GREVILLE wrote:I understand Atlantic temperatures are way up thanks to the position of the jet stream for most of this winter. Would it be true to say that unless we have persistent north to north-easterlies that all other airstreams will contribute to above average temperatures for the growing season?
This depends, you'd think so but the link in the chain are the returning air flows.. You get a southerly and then it snows, many would think how did that happen.. Well this winter we've been quite lucky in the sense that although the air masses haven't been exceptionally mild we've still managed to stay frost free this is down to how fast things were moving... The velocity of the air just didn't allow temperatures to fall to frost level, where had it been less windy we would have seen at least average incidents of frost. The winter from December onwards was mostly characterised by polar maritime air masses, also known as cold zonality. Much of this cold zonality appeared as southwesterly airflows but we're in fact returning from northwesterly and westerly origins. So not all air masses are what they appear
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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stephenprudence
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Re: the implications of such a mild winter.

Post by stephenprudence » Sun Feb 23, 2014 11:43 pm

cordyman wrote:Won't it take another uber cold snap in the states for the jet to be in its current location again for our winter to be like this again, which would be akin to narnia again eg. 1 in 100 etc?

As weather events tend to run in cycles and patterns you'd think it would be rare but we've seen numerous times patterns have repeated themselves on two year bases or every couple of years. Think more recently 2003, then 2006: for hot summers, 2006 to 2007 for very mild winters. 2009 and then 2010 for harsh winters... So it's not inconceivable that next winter could be just as mild as this one
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


otorongo
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Re: the implications of such a mild winter.

Post by otorongo » Mon Feb 24, 2014 11:08 am

I don't mind the pests, never had much of [what I would consider] a problem with them anyway.
And I'm not one to spray plants growing outside, if you need to spray there is something wrong with your garden. Natural ecosystems such as forests don't need to be sprayed and are perfectly fine. Work with nature, not against it icon_thumleft Plant companion plants that deter the pests or attract their natural predators, etc.


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kata
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Re: the implications of such a mild winter.

Post by kata » Mon Feb 24, 2014 11:27 am

I have some shells, are they slugs or snail?

As for Vine Weevil I will check for those as I am recycling old past their sell by dates potted plants to make way for new life.

Some never even made the effort last year but roots are left behind.

icon_sunny
http://flowersnpalms.com/floraandfaunauk/

Rain...nowt but rain...Welcome to Lancashire............ :lol: :lol: :lol:


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Leigh
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Re: the implications of such a mild winter.

Post by Leigh » Mon Feb 24, 2014 4:59 pm

otorongo wrote:I don't mind the pests, never had much of [what I would consider] a problem with them anyway.
And I'm not one to spray plants growing outside, if you need to spray there is something wrong with your garden. Natural ecosystems such as forests don't need to be sprayed and are perfectly fine. Work with nature, not against it icon_thumleft Plant companion plants that deter the pests or attract their natural predators, etc.
Could not agree more never used any pesticides in the Garden, might take a couple of years to balance out but nature finds a way icon_thumleft icon_thumleft icon_thumleft
Leigh


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cordyman
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Re: the implications of such a mild winter.

Post by cordyman » Mon Feb 24, 2014 6:43 pm

£11.99 for x50 ladybird larvae :D

http://www.greengardener.co.uk/product. ... =34&cat=75


bargainous icon_thumleft


I found a lot of ladybirds in my garden after last summer, and as a consequence had very few pests

http://www.hardytropicals.co.uk/forum/v ... =1&t=21534


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cordyman
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Re: the implications of such a mild winter.

Post by cordyman » Mon Feb 24, 2014 6:44 pm

stephenprudence wrote:
cordyman wrote:Won't it take another uber cold snap in the states for the jet to be in its current location again for our winter to be like this again, which would be akin to narnia again eg. 1 in 100 etc?

As weather events tend to run in cycles and patterns you'd think it would be rare but we've seen numerous times patterns have repeated themselves on two year bases or every couple of years. Think more recently 2003, then 2006: for hot summers, 2006 to 2007 for very mild winters. 2009 and then 2010 for harsh winters... So it's not inconceivable that next winter could be just as mild as this one


Cheers Stephen, all sounds feasible! My gut feeling is another dry summer this year :D


Kristen
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Re: the implications of such a mild winter.

Post by Kristen » Fri Feb 28, 2014 2:49 pm

cordyman wrote:I found a lot of ladybirds in my garden after last summer, and as a consequence had very few pests
I've only spent a few hours in the garden so far (but been pleasantly surprised that I could garden until 6pm before the light started to give up :) ( but I'm really surprised how many ladybirds are up & about already. I was expecting a major aphid infestation following the mild winter, but perhaps the ladybirds are one step ahead of them?

Now I just need to train the ladybirds to eat slugs ...
K's Garden blog last update 30th December 2012, HTUK Blog


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