Unusually warm since Summer Solstice 2013?

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otorongo
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Unusually warm since Summer Solstice 2013?

Post by otorongo » Fri Feb 28, 2014 3:54 pm

After the cracking summer with 30C most days, we had a warm autumn (remember those articles about the trees holding on to their leaves 3 weeks longer than usual due to warm weather?) and a super-mild winter with most days in double digits. If this coming spring is warm - and by the looks of it, it may well be - by the next Summer Solstice we'll have had a year (as in 365 consecutive days) way above average, perhaps even 4C above average for some locations?


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stephenprudence
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Re: Unusually warm since Summer Solstice 2013?

Post by stephenprudence » Fri Feb 28, 2014 8:57 pm

otorongo wrote:After the cracking summer with 30C most days, we had a warm autumn (remember those articles about the trees holding on to their leaves 3 weeks longer than usual due to warm weather?) and a super-mild winter with most days in double digits. If this coming spring is warm - and by the looks of it, it may well be - by the next Summer Solstice we'll have had a year (as in 365 consecutive days) way above average, perhaps even 4C above average for some locations?
Probably not as much as 4C but certainly between 1-2C which for an annual average is a massive departure.

It will be interesting to see where summer 2013 to summer 2014 comes in on the league tables of record means.

If we get a warm Spring and warm Summer, and avoid any serious cold next Autumn/December, then we will almost certainly be looking at a record warm year. It wouldn't take much.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


Nigel
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Re: Unusually warm since Summer Solstice 2013?

Post by Nigel » Sat Mar 01, 2014 7:23 am

If we get a strong El Nino form in the pacific which from the ENSO forecasts is a distinct possibility, I think the world will see a lot more records broken for heat in 2014. That could include the UK.
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stephenprudence
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Re: Unusually warm since Summer Solstice 2013?

Post by stephenprudence » Sat Mar 01, 2014 10:59 am

I'm starting to agree with that idea Nigel.. and March could well kick it off.. it may do, it may not, but ultimately, I'm seeing strong signals for a central European High setting up, interacting with the Azores, and we know what that meant.. warm subtropical airmass. Another 2003 wouldn't go amiss, but I feel that sort of pattern is unlikely.

Things feels a bit different to a few years ago now, in terms of patterns.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


Nigel
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Re: Unusually warm since Summer Solstice 2013?

Post by Nigel » Sat Mar 01, 2014 3:22 pm

If it we do have a strong El Nino and DONT get records for heat broken globally I will start to believe a bit more in the GW sceptics, but I sincerely hope if its really hottest the sceptics will stop, because La Nina is known to depress world temps so we can then conclude that the recent flat line was La Nina driven, and if that was the case, then this will surely be warmest year yet.
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