Winter 2008 / 2009 forecast

[stephenprudence]

If we get stuck under this high pressure we'll struggle to see any rain at all, or snow. In fact from what I see the atmosphere is relatively warm throughout the run, but we're trapped in an inversion of cold air, below the warm layer. So basically the best place to be is not sea level, inland. The higher you are and closer to the coast you are, the higher temperatures you will have, the inversion is pretty much like a shallow dome over the UK you see.

In fact if we do get any precipitation it's likely to be freezing rain or ice pellets.

[Dave in Warrington]

from what I see the atmosphere is relatively warm

...... Worth checking the wetterzentrale charts for January and see what you make of these

[stephenprudence]

They look very cold indeed, however I'm not convinced and I think that'll have changed in the next few days. If it did happen though there would be widespread snow for 99% of the UK at some point with very low temperature for parts, especially inland Northern England. I don't think we have to worry yet though.

I think after the last session of cold and frosty weather I'm not too concerned about the upcoming one (ie from now until January) because it looks relatively light and unproblematic.

[Dave Brown]

Makes a bit of a mockery of the long term forecast if they get it wrong and then change it short term.

[stephenprudence]

I dont want to sound like a broken record and I know a number of you hate this part of me, but the forseeable future looks set to bring very low temperatures for the majority of the UK, with central England recording absolute minimums of -5 to -7C as lows from tonight onwards (The reason I'm worrying is that the odd frost is fine, the odd sub zero night is fine but this could go on for weeks with some days not rising above zero - its a VERY stubborn setup in my experience). This will be worst in central and western coastal districts. There are a few plants of mine I've prepared for composting, I know this sounds terrible, awfully assumptious but the charts look horrific beyond anything I've seen since I started watching models... I guess maybe you guys aren't worried but I think there's a bit to be concerned about for the stuff you dont want to die or is even half tender (ie a Nerium Oleander/Phoenix canariensis_CIDP?).

[Dave in Warrington]

with central England recording absolute minimums of -5 to -7C as lows from tonight onwards

I'm not convinced it will be this bad over the next few nights since we're picking up South Easterlies but with cloud and warmth still. If these conditions persist however the near continent will get colder and in a fortnights time, we'll get a lot colder in the UK, starting with Kent and those closest.

On a positive note, for the North West, we'll get very little rain which would be a promising start to 2009

[pete G]

I've just had a look at the weather charts for the next few days.

What really bugs me is why we cant get this situation in July, it would be great.

But no, it happens in the winter, come summer, we get Atlantic depressions.

[Andy Martin]

Just picked this up today. Will probably have to think what new plants to grow if forecast is correct
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... itons.html
Lets hope it is overhype

[stephenprudence]

As much as I usually criticise papers for the mis-treatment of weather forecasts, I can't really find anything to argue about in that article. I said it earlier this winter that we are due a severe winter, one that would usually happen every 12 or so years so I think perhaps this year is the year judging by the patterns (although my original forecast was for mild and dry, which is now wrong). Of course the Daily Mail's -13C would refer to the Scottish mountains, but -6C widespread is not unlikely and even in those situations, the south coast will go sub zero too. Cornwall's worst direction is Northeasterly, so if the big freeze was to occur, Cornwall would be the worst hit, along with perhaps the Scilly Isles, if there was calm winds there.

That sort of temperature would actually clear out a central UK garden over the course of a week, so yes nearly everyone on here would lose fairly hardy plants to a freeze like that, but I do believe it's a one in 15 year event occurring this year, so next winter should be much milder. Let's hope we get a 1995 scenario anyway, with a hot summer.

I am now expecting sub zero temperatures every night for the next 10 days in my area, so its not a shock as I realise things will have to go, as they do in the cycle of nature.

[Dave in Warrington]

Lets hope it is overhype

It doesn't look like it this time and have to agree with you Stephen.

[Gaz]

So we are expecting some -6 this winter, thats what we get most winters. so far this winter has been ok as far as im concerned, a couple of cold snaps, but nothing too bad.

I dont think there is much to be overly worried about so far.

[Dave in Warrington]

I agree, it hasn't been too cold yet but another week or more of this is now forecast.

You might be interested in ....

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?acti ... =SEEngland

and predictions for March and April

[Gaz]

Its the odd spike down that causes the problems in the garden. a cool period wont affect most of the garden too much (i hope) but im not feeling all the gloom yet.

Although there is still plenty of time left

[stephenprudence]

Not been too bad here so far,

-3.8C on Saturday night, -0.3C last night and currently +0.5C at the moment so given the GFS had us down for -3C tonight at this stage, not bad! The breeze is horrific but has done a job of keeping temperatures above freezing.

[Dave Brown]

Ok it is colder than average at the moment, currently -2.7C, but having gardened here for nearly 24 years, this is not that unusual. It is certainly on average colder than the last couple of years, but thye coldest so far is -3.0C which is a pussycat compared to most. We had already had 10 frosts by this time last year, the coldest -4.7C.

Fingers crossed it won't get too cold....... my Nikau is still out, as is the Queen Palm