If you think the UK has been cool for the time of year....

[stephenprudence]

Florida at the moment is relatively freezing.

Much of Florida should be in the 20C mark this time of the year

Some of the temperatures recorded at 09:00 this morning..

Tallahasse: 2C
Jacksonville: 3C
Brooksville: 4C
Pensacola: 5C
Daytona Beach: 9C
West Palm Beach 13C
Miami: 15C

I know Florida can get cold temperatures from time to time, and has recorded snow, but this is utterly crazy for Florida in October!

[Dave Brown]

It is funny, I was doing some USDA zone comparisons about a month ago and chose Gainesville Florida as a twin for my location Zone 8b. Apparently northern Florida has a Tropical summer with max temps in the 30Cs with Mins in the low 20Cs from June to september with virtually no fluctuation, but they are too close to continental USA to get away with it in winter. and get wildly fluctuating temps depending on if warm Gulf air or cold continental air.

See the temp charts for the last 4 years. You will notice that it can get pretty cold at night from early October onward. Also what you have to remember is it bearly reached 8C max here today, where as northern Florida is getting to 18C on their very cold day like today.

These are the temperatures for Gainsville Fl verses Greenwich London. Note our maximums are similar to their minimums

These are Gainesville sunshine hours verses Greenwich, not much difference in summer, but look at the winter

These are the number of frosts for each

This is the rainfall.... and we get less

Bottom line is there is no comparison..... given the choice between UK and Florida, no competition.... Florida wins on every count

[stephenprudence]

Nice post Dave, indeed, no comparison as you suggest....

....except for today maybe Pensacola recorded a high of just 9C, snap!

[Dave Brown]

Nice post Dave, indeed, no comparison as you suggest....

....except for today maybe Pensacola recorded a high of just 9C, snap!

Yes, but Pensacola is is not on the Pan Handle, it is part of continental USA, so it's weather will be more akin to New Oleans. Still pretty chilly though.

[stephenprudence]

Some temperature from today, I'll list all of floridas recording states but what I'll do is I'll put PH next to the name for panhandle, and GS for gulfstream town.

This morning is interesting... and while it's not uncommon, for October these are a little out of the ordinary.

at 07:00

Pensacola NAS (GS): 4C
Pensacola AP (GS): 6C
Milton (GS): 2C
Hulburt Field (GS): 3C
Crestview AP (GS): -1C
Duke Field (GS): 0C
Destin Beach (GS): 10C
Tyndall AFB (GS): 9C
Panama City (GS): 7C
Apalachicola (GS): 7C
Mariana (GS): 3C
Tallahasee (GS): 2C
Perry-Foley AP (PH): 4C
Jacksonville AP (PH): 4C
Jacksonville-Craig (PH): 7C
Jacksonville NAS (PH): 8C
Jacksonville Cecile (PH): 0C
Keaton Beach (PH): 4C
Cross City (PH): 1C
Gainesville (PH): 4C
St Augustine AP (PH): 7C
St Augustine (PH): 8C
Cedar Key (PH): 10C
Ocala International: 2C
Ormond Beach (PH): 7C
Daytona Beach (PH): 8C
The Villages (PH): 6C
Leesburg (PH): 7C
New Smyrna Beach (PH): 7C
Orlando/Sanford (PH): 4C
Brookesville (PH): 0C
Punta Gorda (PH): 7C
Fort Myers (PH): 10C
Miami (PH): 13C
Molasses reef (PH): 18C
Key West (PH): 19C

[Dave Brown]

yeah, cool or what

[stephenprudence]

Some rather interesting updates for Florida.

Again aware it can go cold, but for November... brrr we're not the only ones getting a cold spell this week!

04:46
Tallahasee: -3C
Pensacola: 2C
Keaton Beach: 0C
Cross City: -4C
Gainesville: -1C
Jacksonville: -3C
Daytona Beach 5C
West Palm Beach: 10C
Miami Beach: 12C
Molasses reef: 15C

Even the Caribbean islands are struggling to get much over 15C.

No matter how much someone tries to cover this up, this is not normal for November. (even in the early morn), and forecast to not get much warmer either!

[Dave Brown]

Stephen, the Met Office has a world chart showing expected temp deviations from the norm for Nov/Dec/Jan. UK is expected to be most likely warmer, and Florida through the Caribbean to Central America expected to be most likely colder. SEE HERE

Unfortunately, for Troppoz the Northern Coast of Australia is expected to be most likely warmer

Edit: The High Arctic is colder but the near arctic warmer, as is Siberia, and most of Europe. This tends to suggest where ever the wind comes from, it is expected most likely to be warmer where it is from. Obviusly this is a big picture overview, and there may be colder spells like we are about to get.

[stephenprudence]

Makes sense to me Dave, usually if it fits and works correctly the forecast is usually correct, this is no exception for me. First of all the colder area around the Arctic, if there is big cold there and a milder layer in the lower lattitudes of the Arctic, the colder air from the high lattitudes usually streams into the USA, this explains the cold Florida expectations, I would expect to see some broken records in the USA this winter for cold. With that cold arctic air sitting there though like you say UK could get one or two cold spells, but they will be diluted if there if milder air in lower Arctic lattitudes.

Just for interest watch how cold Europe gets this weekend into next week, it'll highlight how mild Britain is as an island, part of southern Germany and central Europe are expecting -10C with the Alps expecting -30C!!

Here were still going to get frost, snow, sleet, ice. Looks like staying cool after that, so in all it's more a cool spell than a cold spell, but in places temperature will dip frequently below freezing at night. Saturday night could bring -4C to the centre of the country and even here on the coast it could dip to -0C

All in all, I'm scared of losing plants, but that can't be helped too much - enjoy the wintry weather and snow if you get any I guess.

[Petefree]

Did anyone see the 'Oceans' programme last night on TV?
They were looking at the Southern Ocean around Tasmania and helping with some research monitoring how the prevailing currents are shifting, which could have huge impacts globally.
They looked in particular at a kelp bed which is suffering badly because kelp grows optimally in water between 14 & 15C - and the temp in that area has risen by 1.5C which puts it at the top of kelp's optimal range, and so it doesn't grow as strongly. In addition the rise in water temp has brought in spiny sea urchins which didn't occur there before in the cooler waters, but have now moved in and decimated the kelp, so that large areas of the former kelp bed are now completely barren.
They also showed another bit of research whereby they released huge numbers of mature rock lobster into the same kelp beds, these being one of very few predators of the spiny sea urchins...
All very complicated - lets hope it works!
Pete

[DavidF]

I did watch that programme Pete and it was interesting although I found the programme as a whole a bit tedious and I was really looking forward to it too!

It is surprising how what seems like such a small rise (1.5C) could have such a profound effect on a whole ecosystem. I hope the lobsters work, as sometimes with those re-introduction schemes you find that the "re-introduced" species either don't like thier new home and butter off or don't eat the prey they were introduced to eat (or get eaten themselves by a new predator that prefers water 1.5C warmer)!

We shall see....

[Troppoz]

Unfortunately, for Troppoz the Northern Coast of Australia is expected to be most likely warmer

Hmmm thanks for the information Dave.... It has been obscenely hot here a good 2c above average at least! The nights have been cooler than average though, we should be having 28c overnight this time of year but it has been mostly 26c. I think that because there is less moisture in the air it cant hold the heat as well as if it were more humid.

As for the kelp in Tassie yep that is a real worry. A few years ago the water temps reached 22c around Tasmania and a lot of kelp beds were destroyed beyond recovery. Now 22c is the sort of sea temps you get much further up the coast in NSW and QLD, but the warm East Australian Current is going much further south possibly due to global warming with eddys sweeping past Tasmania.

here is a link http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/s987401.htm

I spent 12 months in a town called Bega on the NSW south coast which has the warmest sea surface temperatures in NSW and most of Qld during summer when the current would sweep close to shore and bring with it tropical fish and water temperatures of 26c before dissapating in winter and replaced with cooler water with temps of 14c. All the tropical fish would die off in the cold water and wouldnt be seen again until summer. I fear that this is what will happen to Tasmanias waters in the coming years leading to the complete destruction of the kelp beds whcih would be a huge loss...

I have seen models predicting that Tasmanias climate will be more akin to mainland Australia with hot dry summers and milder winters. What this will do to the cool temperate rainforests can only be imagined but I fear they will be lost as well. Now these forests have grown in Tasmania since the days of Gondwana so to loose them all after less than a century of large scale industrial pollution just blows my mind....

Sean

[Petefree]

I did watch that programme Pete and it was interesting although I found the programme as a whole a bit tedious and I was really looking forward to it too!

I know what you mean, Fletch. It feels to me like these could be 30 min progs instead of 60 - with a bit less of the inane chatter and efforts to dramatise how dangerous the dives are - it should be about the places not the team IMO.

Pete

[stephenprudence]

It is currently -30C at Rouyn airfield in North USA. BRRR!

[stephenprudence]

Oh my lord make that -35C in the central North USA