Not out of the woods..

[stephenprudence]

It looks like cold is back on the cards, not as cold as what we experienced in the deep winter months but enough to give severe frost if the models are correct. If you want my opinion I think they are correct, this is not me being pessimistic - this is me recognising that the current pattern we are in at the moment is like a cul-de-sac and the only way out is through cold and frosty weather with rather low daytime temperatures.

If this occurs (I know there are people who dont trust my forecasts etc) I am ready and I'm going to take cuttings of all my woody perennials/what I can because this type of spring cold that is progged will kill plants (in experience learned from others on the forum). More damage is probably done from cold following warm weather rather than anything else - which is why I'm making this post.

Sorry to be what some may call pessimistic but sometimes you have to face certain realities and this is, in my opinion, one of them.

Anyway lets hope not eh?

[TOP BANANA]

Stephen , im already in to spring mode , was gona plant a few plants next week cause the weather is looking good, but to me you have been right so far this winter top man

[stephenprudence]

I wouldn't plant them unless they are super hardy, like an olive/Trachycarpus or something. I hope it passes quick but in my experience of the pattern coming up it could be well into May before its safe to plant borderline stuff?

[Dave in Warrington]

Stephen , im already in to spring mode , was gona plant a few plants next week cause the weather is looking good, but to me you have been right so far this winter top man

Same here Top Banana ... Spring mode in the garden but difference between daytime maxes and night-time mins will be quite something even as the sun is getting stronger, the nights are still long enough to allow temperatures to fall away and that's precisely what we're going to see in the coming days.


As long as we don't get below zero I need not go out with insulation for the plants !

[stephenprudence]

Well.. in one of the most remarkable and head scratching feats of turnaround, the models have backed away from the cold scenario, which I'm confused about because it didn't look like a turnaround was possible.

I should have delayed this post actually because the next day I was increasingly sceptical of the output.

This is not to say it wont occur still - there are still frosty nights on the way but the days look much more agreeable

I would still be on my toes though because if the models can change away from the cold scenario by day - they can easily change back again..

[DavidF]

Well I'm pleased you got it wrong Stephen, it's been glorious here for days and looks set to stay that way for the next couple of weeks!

Above average temps and nothing to worry about at night either.

Spring is finally here it seems...............

[stephenprudence]

I'm glad to David, my credibility on here for weather forecast is a small price to pay for keeping my plants alive, and so I'm glad that's happened.

In fact if the models are correct (big if) we could be looking at a huge deficiency in rainfall over the remainder of the month. It's all starting to shape up like 2003.

[lucienc]

In fact if the models are correct (big if) we could be looking at a huge deficiency in rainfall over the remainder of the month. It's all starting to shape up like 2003.

Reading through this I was about to ask what the rain forecast was like? I have 3 empty water butts, and not had rain for days n days now. We were supposed to get some heavy rain last week, but nothing came. BBC and Met all saying dry for the next week. Met check not showing any for the rest of the month.

I went to use the outside tap and found it not working, so need to fix that before I can give the treeferns a good soaking.

So what was the rest of 2003 like ? I can't remember .

Lucien

[stephenprudence]

Lucien, in 2003 Feb, March and April were very dry (in my location just 12mm of rain occurred), with none recorded at all that March. May was wet and cool for most, June and July was hot, dry and sunny, with just a few thunderstorms and August was hot and turned wet with frost towards the end of the month.

The rainfall coming up is going to be low, there is a low pressure system apparently due to skirt Ireland and Scotland in a weeks time then I would suggest back to high pressure again. Very little rain due therefore.

Like you Ive had virtually no rain although I just use my tap water to water plants, and ground is dry and dusty but its not a problem yet as despite the dryness of this area anyway, the water table is fairly high.

[Nathan]

In fact if the models are correct (big if) we could be looking at a huge deficiency in rainfall over the remainder of the month. It's all starting to shape up like 2003.

Oh please don't jinx it & say that Stephen, I want a nice hot, dry summer this year...

[Dave in Warrington]

Wasn't it a fact that the winter of 75/76 was so dry that lent itself to the serious drought conditions of the summer of 1976.

With this anti-cyclonic winter and spring, perhaps we are shaping up for a 'corker' of a summer

[Dave Brown]

Wasn't it a fact that the winter of 75/76 was so dry that lent itself to the serious drought conditions of the summer of 1976.

With this anti-cyclonic winter and spring, perhaps we are shaping up for a 'corker' of a summer

Stephen, Dave, there is no comparison between winter 1975/76 and what we have just had. I was recording weather data and temps then. Summer of 1975 was warm and dry, so we went into the winter needing rain The winter was very sunny and dry, but quite warm, I recorded 16C several times in January, 18C in Feb and 23C in March. The warmest I have recorded so far this year is 14.9C last week.

2004/05 was more like 1975/76.

2003 saw the hottest conditions ever recorded in the UK, and Gravesend reached a record 38.1C on 10th August. However, we were beaten into second place by an unmanned orchard near Faversham when they read the readings of 38.5C on Monday 12th. We are still the hottest inhabited town in the UK.

[Dave in Warrington]

Sleet forecast and snow on the Pennines tonight, Frost for the weekend even here at at my lofty '16 metres' above sea level. Certainly 'not out of the woods'