We seem to have different weather over the last 2 years, and maybe solar dimming is playing a part. In summer the Gulf Stream Powers up to Iceland allowing higher pressure over Southern UK. With Solar dimming the Gulf Stream is not as powerful and takes it's more winter route across the UK. When it gets really weak the low pressures seem to stall across the UK so instead of fronts passing through they straddle the country just meandering as the low rotates.
This started in 2007 and I recall in early June I had a very muggy 29C while Phil Hurst in Hull 200 miles north has 11C and torential rain, but the front just stayed there for days and days eventually flooding Hull, and Phil had to move out for nearly a year. Two weeks ago the south was under the front which again just did not move and we struggled to 10.3C while Lee-ann had a sunny 19C Now the roles are reversed and I have had a sweltering (Sean ) 21.9C while the northwest gets 9 or 10C.
The way I read this we are not on for a good summer unless the Gulf Stream picks up some power form somewhere, and the only place that is going to come from is solar activity. So it is not looking good from my point of view. It all really depends on where the front sits. if from Cornwall up to North Yorkshire I am always on the warm side of the front, so muggy and mid 20s if it sits over you 14 to 16C and rain.
Dave, I don't think anyone has to worry about the solar minimum affecting ground temperatures directly as they won't. They will however affect Stratospheric temperatures, and these tiny shifts in Stratospheric temperatures over the poles can influence weather patterns. In a solar minimum I would expect milder weather all round - this might seem strange, afterall why would lower atmospheric temperatures cause warmer weather?
Basically when the Stratosphere is cooler around the poles is allows the development of low pressure systems and stops the the development of high pressure systems around Greenland, this then allows the high pressure cells around the Azores area to ridge in and bring mild Atlantic driven weather (humid and dry/humid and wet) which then forms continental high pressures > a-la-2003. If however the stratosphere is warm over the Arctic, it will allow high pressure to form over Greenland giving us cool summers, aka the last two. This winter was dominated by Stratospheric warming and we saw colder weather due to this, however now I would expect given the minimum of the sun, stratospheric cooling will setup.
Great! - but is it? It is for continental and southern UK (aka southeast and southern UK) but remember the jet will drive southwesterlies more in a sun minimum meaning northern UK (either Scotland, and Northern England/Ireland/or both) will usually be plagued by cool, wet conditions on the ground. So not everyone wins.
The gulf stream has no real direct links to the sun minimum, but the ocean temperature differences in a region may have something to do with that.
I do believe though that it's a weak high pressure year this year meaning some very big temperature differences on the way through the summer, ranging from perhaps 35C in the south to 12C in the north on a really 'hot' day.
I do think the Met-office in their forecast should have emphasised that the north/west will be very unlikely to experience the 30C is suggests, but then again maybe they only have so much room to write their forecasts..?
In terms of the my area, I'm actually genuinely expected a poor summer based on the signals that I've read into, but not as bad as the last one. At the end of the day it isn't a huge problem if we do get a bad summer here because there's nothing you can do about it, and to be fair even though in an average summer the temperatures in my location may be similar to Norwich, being in the northwest it's very unrealiable and too much to expect the longevity of high temperatures that the southeast get usually. On its day for example, in the summer, parts of the Northwest can rival London for temperatures such as Manchester for example but these are very occassional.
Just enjoy summer for what it brings - for example my Indian azalea which is in flower now will flower all summer given lots of rain, coolness and humidity - so that will do just nicely if that occurs.
Last edited by stephenprudence on Fri May 01, 2009 4:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I would take an artic circle winter every year.if they could guarantee a dry hot sunny summer.I'm off to live in Majorca when I'm 65.I have had enough of wet summer sh*t .Then again this summer might be different.Time will tell
Now the roles are reversed and I have had a sweltering (Sean 
) 21.9C while the northwest gets 9 or 10C.
.Then again this summer might be different.Time will tell 