Autumn Weather

[Dave in Warrington]

What ever their location, there are conflicting forecasts on the net now for frosts on the mornings, 5th and 6th November

The models have been updated and looks as if frost will not be an issue next week

[stephenprudence]

Still isn't it humbling that air frosts havent occurred since February! Only very light ground frosts in March, so basically it's quite a long frost free period were in, I wonder whether it could last into December?

[Nick]

Steve:
Down here, not last winter but the two winters before last we only had no more than four frosts all winter, last winter we had frost nearly every night in Oct early November, but we all live in hope of a mild winter, frost free

[stephenprudence]

I don't think we'll ever get a frost free winter anywhere away from say absolute extreme coastlines, but we can witness very few frosts, like you say lets hope this winter is one of them!

[Dave Brown]

It is not necessarily the number of frosts that is a problem. South of France has many frosts in winter with sunny days followed by clear nights. Their Mins are lower than many parts of the UK, but they are generally light frosts of -1 or -2C. If we were to only get 3 frosts but they were -5 -6 -7C there would be more damage than 20 -2Cs.

Now if I could get through with frosts of only -2C that would really be something

[Dave in Warrington]

I don't think we'll ever get a frost free winter anywhere away from say absolute extreme coastlines, but we can witness very few frosts, like you say lets hope this winter is one of them!

Looking at the long range forecast, the autumn may only have given just 1 night of frost that just leaves the risk of frost on 90 nights of the 3 winter months

[stephenprudence]

At least its not say 5 frosts already and another 90 to go

Its unlikely will get even a third of the frosts of the 90 days.

[Exotic Life]

Looks like we gonna get a frostfree autemm here. November forecast are even milder with 14-16C for the coming days and in the long term don't temperatures below 12C on day and 6-7C during the nights.

Now have to look how long it take before I get my first frost this winter season 2009-2010.

Here are the records from the first frost from the last three winters.

Winter 2006-2007. 19 December -0.3C (In the whole winter 9 frosts)
Winter 2007-2008. 14 November -0.3C (In the whole winter 29 frosts)
Winter 2008-2009. 28 October -0.7C (In the whole winter 48 frosts)

I do have some records from the winter 2004-2005 and winter 2005-2006 but they can't be taken really sure because the recorded on a different way then I do now since the first day of 2006.

But for the one who interested winter 2004-2005, 22 nights with frost. Winter 2005-2006, 39 nights with frost.

Robbin