Autumn Weather

[stephenprudence]

Now were past Meteorological summer, I think it's important that we start an Autumn thread as this can be one of the most important times of the year for us, with the first frosts, and sometimes, snow.

Tonight after looking at a couple of long range forecasts, It may be the case we don't see an air frost in North West England until November ......

It should be interesting to see how the autumn 'plays its hand'

Usually I prefer the northerlies and cold easterlies to make their presence felt now, and although there's no evidence that suggests that a colder pattern may take hold after a mild pattern, it certainly is more like in terms of probability.

I just think that is next week is going to be fairly warm, with temperatures up to 17-20C, and nights in the range of 6-11C, the lack of frost in any long term period we may pay for come this winter. As far as I know there hasn't been a frost yet since March, that's a long time to go without frost even for the coast! Let's hope its a freakishly long warm, frost free spell were entering.

[Exotic Life]

Long range forecast are quite nice, and don't have got anything of cold in it. Looks like we gonna get some sunny days with temperatures between the 17-21C and 10-12C during the nights.

Let see what's going to happen...

Robbin

[delboy12]

Hi Everybody,
Like i said last week my water butts are empty,and now the high pressure building again next week, ive put all my plants away could get them back out ! and i will soon be up on the roof putting up xmas lights which i do for charity every year please take alook www.robinroyd-xmas-lights.co.uk long may this weather carry on cheers

[Dave in Warrington]

Clouding over tonight so looks promising now to keep the frost off and we may not get frost this month Long range forecast has milder air pushing in.

You don't want icy weather putting up all those lights delboy12

[Dave in Warrington]

Hope the forecast for the 28th and 29th october is right.
Temperatures forecast are in the high teens here, might even get a 20C in the midlands.

This is something we missed in July and August .... a warm spell

[stephenprudence]

Although again there is no evidence to suggest trends like this continually occur, 2008 and 2007 recorded record warm Novembers, or near record warm Novembers, and those winter went on to become some of the mildest of record (not that that Im insinuating that it will) but it's food for thought.

[Nathan]

But of course some very mild October & November's have been followed by very cold winters too...

Obviously we have had warming over the last 20-30 years, but last winter was a shock & after a run of the warmest winters on record. I'm not saying this winter is going to be cold, infact I personally think it will be fairly mild, but no one knows what will happen as unfortunately the weather doesn't stick to set patterns & even a mild winter will have some colder snaps...

[Dave in Warrington]

But of course some very mild October & November's have been followed by very cold winters too....

So 'make hay whilst the sun shines' which isn't very often at this location

[stephenprudence]

Last winter was colder than many before, but it wasn't 'true' cold, like many of the great winters were. Most of it was either from inversions (ie warm atmosphere, and cold surface), or from high pressure scenarios were things would cool down quickly as they do, and cold surface pools often developed because the sea was generally cooler.

Last year had virtually no deep rooted cold (for example cold transferred from the Arctic or Siberia), most of the cold was 'home grown'.

In general winter was only 'just' below average in the CET zone.

[Nathan]

In general winter was only 'just' below average in the CET zone.

Try telling that to the exotic gardeners of Cornwall

Most of the Midlands got off lightly, it was the South West that had the worst of the cold due to the direction of the winds...

[stephenprudence]

Yep true, officially of course the Met-office wont have that

Mind you - the Met-office hub is in the southwest now so it should be more west-centric - unfortunately it isn't, London-centric is still the way!

[Nathan]

Well the Met Office is manned by numpty's, they couldn't even forecast the snow last year that had themselves snowed in at their HQ!

[Dave in Warrington]

What ever their location, there are conflicting forecasts on the net now for frosts on the mornings, 5th and 6th November

[stephenprudence]

Frosts are possible according to the recent forecasts, it could change though, I am a little sceptical of any frost occurring next week, I think this one will change alot. Could well be some cool nights though especially in our area Dave.

[Exotic Life]

November looks cooler here to compared to the last week, but not the real cold forecasted. At the moment it would be around the 11-13C during the days and 4-7C during the nights. In fact that would be most of the time a little above average, so if that would happen, i'm not complaining then.

Robbin