Winter 2009 / 2010 forecast

[stephenprudence]

cool, mostly frost free I would say Dave, of course with my track record you may as well ask the wall.

[Conifers]

cool, mostly frost free I would say

I'd agree with that for May.

[Dave in Warrington]

I didn't think anyone would comment Stephen, but then you add a disclaimer - ask the wall

I think Conifers is a safer bet

[Alexander]

Finely surious thaw here! And we are over the half of the metereological winter now! In 6 weeks it will be spring!

Alexander

[stephenprudence]

Not sure whether this will be achieved but the not so good news is that the NAO and AO are forecasted to go lower than they have been (setting a potential new record), well I know that would mean one thing, it would be colder than even it was earlier in the month.. we'll have to wait and see whether this forecast is a true one.

If the models start picking it up then we must start to worry but to be honest who knows what will happen, it could all change - the signals might be an overreaction to a potential pattern.

I wouldn't like to guess right now though.

[Dave in Warrington]

If we can stay above freezing until the end of January and the near continent thaws too, surely whatever the wind direction it shouldn't be as cold as it was last week...... or can it

[stephenprudence]

Good point Dave, although the forecast for the AO is for a negative index of -5. The index we just escaped from was -4. This is unchartered territory because the index doesn't show us how long any potential cold spell will last for, and besides they are not always accurate, I've known the NAO and AO forecasts to change over the course of a day, however having said that any NAO/AO forecast now probably has added credence due to the solar minimum.

Wait and see I guess!

[Dave Brown]

They haven't gone to -5 in the last 60 years according to this, but it is mean 3 month. However I am having difficulty fitting thid to the main weather events I recall.

1962/63 was a bit nothingy in AO terms so was summer 1976 soi I don't know if you can use AO to forecast

The only thing on there is 1989/90 was when I had to look for shade to park the cars, and windscreen shades became essential. I fell out with a neighbour when he demanded to park his car in the shade of a tree in the road outside my garden. He got the right hump when I parked there rather than on my drive which was full sun.

[stephenprudence]

I think the key about the 1963 is the length of the AO, perhaps the longevity of it led to 1963 rather than the severity. Then again it takes many attributes, it's about finding the main one that causes this severe, prolonged cold, because if we can find one main culprit then we have a better idea in future. Of course the lower it goes the longer lasting is - plus I suspect it's how it reacts with the -NAO

NAO



AO



As I suspected it's the collaboration between negative NAO and AO that seemed to lead to the severe winter of recent times (1962/63), (1981/82), 1995/96)

This is quite important I suspect.

Interestingly it seems a mix of -AO and +NAO or +NAO/+AO led to hot spells in summer (aka European high), very interesting and suggest that mild/hot spells are more likely and very cold spells are odds against because they need something that is suggestive of 25% probability. (This correlates with the 1 in 25 year cold spell)

What I also gather is that the North Atlantic Oscillation is a bigger driver than the Arctic Oscillation in our weather patterns, but they do work together.

For winter the best Oscillation pattern your could hope for is a +NAO and -AO = a strong European High pumping warm air from the south - a little like now only stronger. Interestingly given the stregth of the negative oscillation I reckon this is possible later in the year

[Alexander]

Frost returns next week! www.weatheronline.co.uk and look at the expertcharts for Europe. Spring is still far away...

Alexander

[Alexander]

Folks, the winter probably returns with temperatures down to -7 in some places and snow brought to you by cold easterlies from Russia! Still possible for a more deepfreeze weather! And after that a cold misserable spring...

Take care...

Alexander

[stephenprudence]

Unfortunately you may be right Alexander - the easterly looks like hitting the Netherlands very hard though, UK will be hard but not as hard as NL.

The GFS is showing some extreme weather, although I'm not 100% convinced yet because I do believe the GFS will have a habit overdoing the cold from time to time, but if we look at what the GFS has predicted.. it's temperatures of -10C widespread for the UK and well I would guess -15C widespread for the Netherlands.

That's why I have trouble believing it is true because it would be the coldest winter since 1947 if this came off - 1963 was snowy but it would not touch the winter in terms of cold of the prediction occurred.

So yep not convinced but if it does happen then carnage will result pretty much everywhere.

I wouldnt worry though.

[Alexander]

Not the coldest sinece 1947, far from that! And 1963 was the coldest! But in 1996 and 1997 we had cold winters, 1997 was colder then what we have had until now!

The lowest temperature in The Hague are was about -8 to -9. Cold but far from extreme cold! The eastern part gets much colder!

Alexander

[stephenprudence]

Thats interesting as you say the 1963 was the coldest for you in the NL, I think 1947 was much colder here in the UK, but I believe 1947 is the 4th or 5th coldest on record (since 1700), there was the coldest winter on record in, it was made famous in a book, what was it called? the winter was in 1793 or 1783 something like that?

edit: Lorna Doone!!

[Alexander]

For Wednsday next week temperature here down to - 8 again. Farther inland -10 and colder! Well thats according to www.weatheronline.co.uk And they are often pretty reliable...

Alexander