Mid-latitude frontal cyclones dissolving

[Adrian Brattle]

As when we move in to the second half of October, the
Mid-latitude frontal cyclones that generally moves northeastwards into the arctic will dissolve, as it comes up against the developing and advancing Siberian high pressure system. This winter, Siberia will be so cold; the north atlantic weather fronts of the mid-latitude cyclones will not be able to penetrate in to western Europe.

[billdango]

I think i better get a load of extra wraps in if its going to be as bad as that.
thank God i have only got hardys left?.
billdango.

[Nathan]

Ooh & when we moves into 2012 then we will all be doomed, not just our plants...

[Conifers]

Don't worry, those mid-latitude frontal cyclones are only dissolving in the funny liquids Adrian drinks

[Adrian Brattle]

Don't worry, those mid-latitude frontal cyclones are only dissolving in the funny liquids Adrian drinks

Is that all you can say?

[stephenprudence]

The end of September - beginning of October have generally always been traditionally settled. It's usually towards the middle-end of October that the Atlantic systems break through.

Seeing a quiet Atlantic now has no bearing on winter.

Seems far too many people are being dragged into the.. "there no Atlantic systems so therefore we are going to have a severe winter".

The Gulf Stream (and adjoining North Atlantic Drift) are very healthy at the moment.

and just to correct, the systems across the Arctic are not dissolving.. it is just the matter that the Jet stream is well North of the UK, so therefore low pressure is being hemmed into the Arctic, this will move south - hopefully slowly.

Prediction for 24 hours (pretty much certain)



That is a fairly active Atlantic so suggestions that the Atlantic is dead are false statements and completely un-needed. All that has happened is the jet stream has moved north allowing high pressure to ridge further north.. this is a fairly good thing.

[Adrian Brattle]

The end of September - beginning of October have generally always been traditionally settled. It's usually towards the middle-end of October that the Atlantic systems break through.

Seeing a quiet Atlantic now has no bearing on winter.

Seems far too many people are being dragged into the.. "there no Atlantic systems so therefore we are going to have a severe winter".

The Gulf Stream (and adjoining North Atlantic Drift) are very healthy at the moment.

and just to correct, the systems across the Arctic are not dissolving.. it is just the matter that the Jet stream is well North of the UK, so therefore low pressure is being hemmed into the Arctic, this will move south - hopefully slowly.

Prediction for 24 hours (pretty much certain)



That is a fairly active Atlantic so suggestions that the Atlantic is dead are false statements and completely un-needed. All that has happened is the jet stream has moved north allowing high pressure to ridge further north.. this is a fairly good thing.

You misunderstood. Its to early to see it now, but the unusual high level of the snow fall over Siberia will cause a mass cooling in that region. As when we move into November, cooling will spread over the continental land mass. The mid-latitude cyclones moving towards that region will dissolve as high pressure will build and blocking jet stream will manifest in November.

[Nathan]

Did someone tell you this in a dream Adrian??

[Adrian Brattle]

Did someone tell you this in a dream Adrian??

The foundation for the most severe -AO/NAO since the dalton minimum is being put in place now.

Autumn snowfall catches Russians off guard. 28th-sept-2011
http://rt.com/news/prime-time/siberia-r ... wfall-497/

Also supported by the webbots project.
It accurately predicted that the last cold winter of 2010/11 that had start in europe frist, then spread to north america.
But the wetbot report of late 2011 nothing was in it of a comet or brown dwarf star coming close to earth.


If you want to hear his winter forcast for 2011/12

[stephenprudence]

Adrian, last winter wasn't cold, December was yes (one the coldest on record), but February was well above average (one of the warmest Februaries on record, but this never gets mentioned), where does that fit in with the sudden ice age theory?

[Adrian Brattle]

Adrian, last winter wasn't cold, December was yes (one the coldest on record), but February was well above average (one of the warmest Februaries on record, but this never gets mentioned), where does that fit in with the sudden ice age theory?

It did start in Europe first, but USA had the highest impact.
In late January the polar ice did completely refreeze, helping to kick start the polar vortex.

[Tom2006]

Although it could be cold this winter (deep cold) the probability is against it. 09-10 was a very cold winter. As Stephen says last winter was extremely cold but for only part of winter.

Last winter the weather circulations in the n hemisphere during December reversed as the deep cold plunged south and west.

This winter the solar output is much greater, its been a very active hurricane season fueling the energy into the Atlantic pushing warmer waters our way plus and most importantly the jet stream it back on track with HP systems in north Europe pushing warmer air up into the south and deflecting the Atlantic further north. So long as this continues us exotic lovers should be happy, even in Scotland!

Adrian, if I can ask, I don't remember seeing you post much regarding plants etc. How come?

[Adrian Brattle]

Although it could be cold this winter (deep cold) the probability is against it. 09-10 was a very cold winter. As Stephen says last winter was extremely cold but for only part of winter.

Last winter the weather circulations in the n hemisphere during December reversed as the deep cold plunged south and west.

This winter the solar output is much greater, its been a very active hurricane season fueling the energy into the Atlantic pushing warmer waters our way plus and most importantly the jet stream it back on track with HP systems in north Europe pushing warmer air up into the south and deflecting the Atlantic further north. So long as this continues us exotic lovers should be happy, even in Scotland!

Adrian, if I can ask, I don't remember seeing you post much regarding plants etc. How come?

The solar output is greater now, but not enough to have any affect. The active hurricane season is associated with an unstable atmospheric circulation.

EX: when the AO/NAO is positive, the tropical trade winds that blows from the subtropical high to the equator is stronger than normal; this Ade tropical surface water evaporation and allowing of upwelling of colder water from the deeper levels to the surface, this in turn will reduce tropical storm activity.

When the AO/NAO is Negative, tropical trade winds that blows from the subtropical high to the equator is weaker then normal;
this will reduce evaporation over the tropics, so the upwelling of colder waters from the deeper level will be reduced, this will in turn over heat the surface waters, allowing more tropical cyclone to develop.

[Adam D]

You misunderstood. Its to early to see it now, but the unusual high level of the snow fall over Siberia will cause a mass cooling in that region. As when we move into November, cooling will spread over the continental land mass. The mid-latitude cyclones moving towards that region will dissolve as high pressure will build and blocking jet stream will manifest in November.

Adrian,

That sounds more like a snow/cold ramper's wet dream!

[stephenprudence]

If as you say Adrian that solar output has increased and has no effect, that surely means solar input in general has no effect. If solar input effects out weather patterns as some suggest, then surely even an increase in solar input must have some effect..if it doesn't have any effect then it seems to be that the sun has no direct effect on our atmosphere.. of course it always has an indirect affect, but a direct effect would, in this case affect weather patterns.