Our October continues to be mild.. however

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stephenprudence
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Our October continues to be mild.. however

Post by stephenprudence » Fri Oct 28, 2011 10:38 pm

Northeast USA is preparing for a record breaking snow storm tomorrow (I think it is due tomorrow).

Most inland areas will get some significant snow, but the cities of Washington D.C. and New York City should get away with sleet or rain.

Here's an article.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-15502380
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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sanatic1234
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Re: Our October continues to be mild.. however

Post by sanatic1234 » Fri Oct 28, 2011 11:50 pm

I am forecast, and i say forecast so it could be wrong! i am meant to be having 18c on the 3rd of november and 11c night low. Now if that is true, i will be shocked but will be loving it. :-)
Best regards Aaron :)

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Tom2006
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Re: Our October continues to be mild.. however

Post by Tom2006 » Sat Oct 29, 2011 3:12 am

Could be a very damaging snow storm if some areas do get the 12-15" of wet snow forecast.

Meanwhile you are spot on San, many of us could have high teens even 20C in places as we enter Nov!
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Re: Our October continues to be mild.. however

Post by Dave Brown » Sat Oct 29, 2011 6:32 am

18C here in early November is not as uncommon as you might expect. I'd say 1 year in 3.
Here is the met office summary of UK weather for Nov 2010 ..... basically: very mild start, very stormy mid month, very cold, snowy end.
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sanatic1234
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Re: Our October continues to be mild.. however

Post by sanatic1234 » Sat Oct 29, 2011 8:24 am

Normally dave i am seeing frosts at mid/late october. It is crazy but great! :-)
Best regards Aaron :)

Summer 2013 was a good one :-).

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Re: Our October continues to be mild.. however

Post by Exotic Life » Sat Oct 29, 2011 10:05 am

Dave Brown wrote:18C here in early November is not as uncommon as you might expect. I'd say 1 year in 3.
Here is the met office summary of UK weather for Nov 2010 ..... basically: very mild start, very stormy mid month, very cold, snowy end.
Same here. November 2010 started with 14-18C as well here with some good windy and rainy days. In the end of November the first frost started and the rest we all know.

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Darlo Mark
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Re: Our October continues to be mild.. however

Post by Darlo Mark » Sat Oct 29, 2011 10:07 am

Yes we do not want a repeat of last november!
Winter lows:
Winter 2009-10 -9.5
Winter 2010-11 -15.0
winter 2011-12 (so far) -7.2


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Re: Our October continues to be mild.. however

Post by kata » Sat Oct 29, 2011 10:37 am

Not sure about 'great' San, its unnatural to be so mild,

According to my Wunderground widget on mine its 10C and rising steady, its now raining. Our temps are about right for the north of England in October, Its supposed to be a warm weekend though.

Looks grim for the US, looks grim fir us if it happens.

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Re: Our October continues to be mild.. however

Post by Nigel » Sat Oct 29, 2011 12:48 pm

Stephens warning is applicable , there is a correlation between cold winters on north east coast of USA and cold winters in the UK.
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Re: Our October continues to be mild.. however

Post by stephenprudence » Sat Oct 29, 2011 1:08 pm

This snow storm isn't a suggestion of a cold winter, just an unusual complex low off the northeast coast of USA.

However I don't see any correlation with UK and Northeast USA.. I do see correlation however with Florida and UK in terms of anomalies. Last winter Northeast USA did not have a cold December or Autumn (it was mostly above average, although it was snowy), so I can't see the correlation. However Florida did have an anomalously cold November and December in 2008/09, 2009/10 and 2010/11.

Ive never come across anyone who has accepted northeast USA and UK have correlation. I don't believe it myself. The issue for me is the morphology of low pressures and their tendency to have changed somewhat when they get here from the eastern seaboard. Also the fact that low pressures get here from the eastern seaboard suggests a strong UK bound jetstream.

UK and Florida do seem to share a similar knock on effect of a global pattern though for some reason or other
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: Our October continues to be mild.. however

Post by sanatic1234 » Sat Oct 29, 2011 1:24 pm

kata wrote:Not sure about 'great' San
Which would you prefer though kata? nice and mild for that bit longer plants being able to flower and grow for that bit longer or in its single figures and really cold, garden looking miserable? I know which one i would prefer. Last year was enough cold for a couple of years for me. :lol:
Best regards Aaron :)

Summer 2013 was a good one :-).

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Re: Our October continues to be mild.. however

Post by Nigel » Sat Oct 29, 2011 1:36 pm

Stephen when its mild on north west coast of USA its often cold in the UK. I dont know why but I spent years talking to guys on the pacific north west forum and it was always like that.
When mild air was there the cold seemed to topple our way. Likewise when its cold on the east coast its usually mild on the west coast.
I dont know if there is any accepted logic for this its just my observation that it usually happens that way.
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Re: Our October continues to be mild.. however

Post by stephenprudence » Sat Oct 29, 2011 1:47 pm

Nigel, finding out if there were some overall patterns in different global areas of the world would be very beneficial to medium term forecasting if it were available. I wonder whether this has been researched before though because presumably if it had, it would have benefitted forecasts much more.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: Our October continues to be mild.. however

Post by Nigel » Sat Oct 29, 2011 2:02 pm

I always reasoned that there was a block of cold air over the arctic with a fairly consistent mass and temperature , and when it toppled the way of the pacific north west it was toppling away from us and vice versa.
I did read that whilst La Nina peps up our jetstream it leads to more high pressure over there , and vice versa with el nino so maybe those weather patterns are influencing more of the globe than is realised or accepted.
I dont know, but you should keep your eye on the weather patterns of the PNW to compare to us, maybe barrie can help you , it would be interesting if you were to make same observations as I did.
Maybe start a new PNW vs UK weather blog and each week Barrie gives update, ie cold, average, or warm and we do same and each week we compare to see if they are randomly connected or if there is a pattern ??
Last edited by Nigel on Sat Oct 29, 2011 2:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Our October continues to be mild.. however

Post by Conifers » Sat Oct 29, 2011 2:04 pm

stephenprudence wrote:Nigel, finding out if there were some overall patterns in different global areas of the world would be very beneficial to medium term forecasting if it were available. I wonder whether this has been researched before though because presumably if it had, it would have benefitted forecasts much more.
I'd assume something so obvious has been researched, and presumably found not to work icon_blackeye


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