New Year 2012 Winter forecast

[stephenprudence]

Here it's a case of damned if it is, and damned if it isn't, because if the jet is south like last year we get severe cold, if the jet is north then we often get high pressure and a frosty scenario, so it shows the importance of the jet stream being right over the UK, and fortunately for us it is most of the time!

[Nigel]

The best scenario surely is the azores high ridging up over spain and france then you get the westerly edge with warm sowesterlies , still light frosts at night when its clear but usually in that scenario you get the bottom edge of the jet and grey cloud. Those are always the mildest and most pleasnant days of winter and even when its clear its usually 7 or 8 by day and only light frosts.

[stephenprudence]

Yes they can be pleasant but there's often a fine line between pleasant, sunny days and cool nights, and inversions with foggy freezing days and very cold nights.

[stephenprudence]

Ok well it does have to be said the 12z run is a little bit special, and although it wouldn't break the record it would come very close.

[stephenprudence]

Another wonderful model run to take us into the new year - if this run had been in July we would have widespread temperatures of 30C.

[Tom2006]

we must hope that these charts continue right through for ever more!!...if only

[Dave Brown]

Stephen, where do you see 2011 finishing in terms of warmest years. Surely in the top 5 ? With the azores high seemingly moving into the 'dream position' for the rest of the year december will surely come out again well above average, with a very warm xmas period.

Unfortunately no, not in the top 5, more like top 15 - however 15 out of 300 or so, is quite an achievement in itself!

If the CET zone was here we would beat the record, but it's in the central part, and they need 4.65C above average every day for the rest of the month to break the record, which is bordering on inconceivable - especially when frosts/sub zero temperatures are looking very likely towards the end of December.

This is how the year has panned out here so far

[stephenprudence]

Would you say that's a record for you Dave so far? It looks like your rolling mean is around 12C which is pretty warm! My current rolling mean is around 11.5C which would most likely be a record if it finished like that. The CET record is 10.8C and it's currently 11.0 I think so it really is going to go right to the wire if we het the mildness shown for the rest of December.

[Nigel]

Blimey dave, lowest for entire YEAR just -3.7C

[Yorkshire Kris]

Blimey dave, lowest for entire YEAR just -3.7C

My lowest temp up here in Yorkshire for 2011 has been -4.1 in March and again in early April.

So the last 12 months have been very mild as that's the lowest temp recorded in my garden.

Just last November and first three weeks of Dec that were rubbish.

[Nathan]

My lowest temperature for 2011 (so far) has been +0.3C, recorded back in January...

Just 4 more days to go & it will be 12 months exactly since I had my last frost here (below 0C)

[stephenprudence]

We got hit badly in late January, and recorded -4.9C it was basically when the frigid air affected the northern part of the country (or just here?).

-4.9C is the lowest. Very low and very cold.

[Darlo Mark]

Keep these warm fronts coming................