Britain on course for hottest ever summer [Daily Mail]

otorongo
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Britain on course for hottest ever summer [Daily Mail]

Post by otorongo » Mon Mar 17, 2014 1:07 am

Warm-up for summer: Sunshine will stay around all week so bask while you can

Temperatures reached 20C in St James's Park, London, this afternoon - following a weekend of warm weather
Experts have predicted there is a 75 per cent chance of this summer being the hottest ever
Britain could experience an El Niño weather pattern - caused by rising temperatures in the Pacific
Next week will stay dry and mild for this time of year, say Met Office forecasters
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... March.html


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stephenprudence
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Re: Britain on course for hottest ever summer [Daily Mail]

Post by stephenprudence » Mon Mar 17, 2014 7:31 am

Hottest ever summer? Thatll be a very tall order! I think experts would be more sensible than to forecast a 75% chance of the hottest summer ever. But the daily mail will rake the money in so to them it probably doesn't matter so much whether their headline is a tad embarrassing


That said, summer may be warm however.. I see no reason why it couldn't be.

However, after next week the end of March into early April is likely to be of the wet and cool variety.
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Re: Britain on course for hottest ever summer [Daily Mail]

Post by Kristen » Mon Mar 17, 2014 1:02 pm

Beats me why anyone buys such junk. Daily Mail sales desperate so inventing sensational headlines to sell papers as per Daily Express?

19 May 2012 - followed by wettest Summer in memory
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14 Nov 2013 - and we know how last winter turned out

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18 Nov 2013 - Ditto

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billdango
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Re: Britain on course for hottest ever summer [Daily Mail]

Post by billdango » Mon Mar 17, 2014 1:33 pm

Hottest summer ever? :D

I,ll believe it when I see it. 8)

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Re: Britain on course for hottest ever summer [Daily Mail]

Post by Tom2006 » Mon Mar 17, 2014 2:32 pm

Worryingly they tend to jinx it so expect a cool wet one......
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Re: Britain on course for hottest ever summer [Daily Mail]

Post by Nigel » Mon Mar 17, 2014 6:11 pm

The article does have some credibility actually. I dont agree with the 75% chance figure but we surely have a high chance compared to normal.
There is an accumulation of factors that could indeed see some quite remarkable temperatures this summer.
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Re: Britain on course for hottest ever summer [Daily Mail]

Post by Kristen » Mon Mar 17, 2014 6:40 pm

Nigel wrote:The article does have some credibility actually. I dont agree with the 75% chance figure but we surely have a high chance compared to normal.
There is an accumulation of factors that could indeed see some quite remarkable temperatures this summer.
Presumably, similarly, there were indicators, last Autumn, that the winter just gone was likely to be very cold, and some boffin somewhere articulated them and that prompted the Express headlines ...

When it comes down to it though the chances that any long range forecast is right are little better than 50:50 aren't they?
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Re: Britain on course for hottest ever summer [Daily Mail]

Post by otorongo » Mon Mar 17, 2014 6:50 pm

Kristen wrote:Presumably, similarly, there were indicators, last Autumn, that the winter just gone was likely to be very cold, and some boffin somewhere articulated them and that prompted the Express headlines ...
I don't know about the Express, but the polar ice was suggesting a mild winter.


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Re: Britain on course for hottest ever summer [Daily Mail]

Post by kata » Mon Mar 17, 2014 10:02 pm

Daily Mail...fail.

Thats what G calls it.

:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Britain on course for hottest ever summer [Daily Mail]

Post by Nigel » Mon Mar 17, 2014 10:47 pm

otorongo wrote:
Kristen wrote:Presumably, similarly, there were indicators, last Autumn, that the winter just gone was likely to be very cold, and some boffin somewhere articulated them and that prompted the Express headlines ...
I don't know about the Express, but the polar ice was suggesting a mild winter.
Yes, I was completely unable to see the cold scenario being predicted , although the boffins could argue that the USA copped it. This summer though is going to be interesting. I really think a lot of factors are stacking up that say HOT.
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Re: Britain on course for hottest ever summer [Daily Mail]

Post by Dave Brown » Tue Mar 18, 2014 9:24 am

I can't work it out... as 1976, which is the best summer of my lifetime, was not an El Nino, and was just after a solar minimum in the 11 year cycles icon_scratch Not sure what caused the Azores high to sit over us all summer.
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Re: Britain on course for hottest ever summer [Daily Mail]

Post by Nigel » Tue Mar 18, 2014 3:37 pm

Dave Brown wrote:I can't work it out... as 1976, which is the best summer of my lifetime, was not an El Nino, and was just after a solar minimum in the 11 year cycles icon_scratch Not sure what caused the Azores high to sit over us all summer.
Dave, an El Nino formed at the end of 1976 but as you say during the summer it was ENSO neutral . that actually is the pattern we see now, ENSO neutral with an El Nino forming. I must admit I had always thought the El Nino was already in place and not lagging behind our summer. There is no doubt though that a pattern exists of El Ninos combined with good summers.
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Re: Britain on course for hottest ever summer [Daily Mail]

Post by billdango » Wed Mar 19, 2014 2:06 pm

Dave Brown wrote:I can't work it out... as 1976, which is the best summer of my lifetime, was not an El Nino, and was just after a solar minimum in the 11 year cycles icon_scratch Not sure what caused the Azores high to sit over us all summer.
Many people tend not to remember that 1975 was at least for us on the south coast nearly as hot and dry as the summer of 1976.

After a cold start in early June that year it just kept getting hotter.

According to my daily weather records that year the drought was nearly as bad as 1976 but a dry winter followed by the even greater drought of that year was what did the damage.

The hot summer of 1976 didn,t really start till about the 20th 0f June and carried on till the 30th of August which was then followed by a wet cold Autumn.

The sun hours recorded for Southampton were over 1.900 hours for both years but were reduced by the cold cloudy spring and early summer of 1975 and again by the cloudy dull spring and wet autumn of 1976.

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Re: Britain on course for hottest ever summer [Daily Mail]

Post by stephenprudence » Wed Mar 19, 2014 4:01 pm

El Niño and La Niña work on lag so the effects may not be felt for a year after the initiation of the oscillation
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: Britain on course for hottest ever summer [Daily Mail]

Post by Nigel » Wed Mar 19, 2014 6:16 pm

stephenprudence wrote:El Niño and La Niña work on lag so the effects may not be felt for a year after the initiation of the oscillation
I am not sure about that Stephen, the sea temps in the pacific off south america have a direct effect on the weather down there and affects our jet stream. Its more likely that a weak El Nino or La Nina dont have effect so the event has to strengthen before its effects are felt. When I was in Brazil the la Nina was directly effecting the weather down there it was very predictable as is El Nino, further away the effects are less reliable although we know it has an effect on the entire worlds weather.
La Nina is able to suppress temperatures globally, this is one of the major factors over the recent flatlining of world temps , jumped upon by the anti GW vandals to `prove` global warming was a lie, which of course it was not because the flatlining was caused by la Nina
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