Watch out overnight, the stars come out to play

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fern Rob
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Re: Watch out overnight, the stars come out to play

Post by fern Rob » Sat Mar 22, 2014 9:47 pm

More frost forecasted for me.
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GREVILLE
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Re: Watch out overnight, the stars come out to play

Post by GREVILLE » Sat Mar 22, 2014 11:33 pm

Met Office get pilloried for 10% inaccuracies, so you are in good company, Stephen icon_thumright


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stephenprudence
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Re: Watch out overnight, the stars come out to play

Post by stephenprudence » Sun Mar 23, 2014 12:00 am

Image

The latest suggestion of temperatures for lowland sites.. I really can't argue with this because it's been consistent.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: Watch out overnight, the stars come out to play

Post by harryc » Sun Mar 23, 2014 12:02 am

You boys both have a point because on face value Stephen's analysis can seem a bit OTT but he just states what could possibly occur, where as Nigel seems seems to think first hollows don't exist and the chances of -6 or -7 don't exist....


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Dave Brown
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Re: Watch out overnight, the stars come out to play

Post by Dave Brown » Sun Mar 23, 2014 9:30 am

Normal Met office forecasting used to only give towns and cities readings until they were crucified by gardeners and growers for the loss of crops. Now they have figures for Towns and Cities, countryside, and cold spots and may differ by as much as 10C.

My comment on forecasting, whether the Met Office, Stephen, or Nigel, is that you have to know your own location to enterpret what it means to you. I am about 2/3rds towards countryside end from towns and cities, so if towns are 3C and countryside 0C I'll be around 1C, but on the same night real cold spots could be as low as -5C.

You are both using the same figures but one using towns and cities the other cold spots..... both are inaccurate for my location :wink:
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stephenprudence
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Re: Watch out overnight, the stars come out to play

Post by stephenprudence » Sun Mar 23, 2014 9:35 am

Someone could argue that that would be the same for all locations as we'd need to devise a list then which would be impossible. I mean sure someone could do a broad assessment ie for rural locations, towns and cities, it might work, but the range of temperatures would be useless to most people. Unless of course it was done regionally (which would take some time).

I'm not sure if anyone lives rurally on here, or whether it is town based.

This cold does not concern me tonight from an IMBY point of view.. my location is for once, not in the 'firing line' so to speak, and whilst you and I will get below 0C Dave, I'm sure it won't be by much.

It's the Midlands and the far North of England that gets the coldest weather this time. (excluding frost hollows)

I think what makes tonight stick out in that it is a lot colder than any night for the previous rolling year.. I think that shows just how mild it's been through this winter, rather than how cold it will be tonight.

As for my use of figures.. fair enough people see it as pessimistic, but what I quote is only potential.. I could quote -2C but if a person gets lower then Im toast - your damned if you do, and your damned if you don't

The -6C still stands and there's a real possibility than it could occur, albeit isolated, in towns or other suburban areas (not just rurally.

It's best to keep a watch on the televised forecasts because they usually mention the potential for city and rural temperatures before a frosty night.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Dave Brown
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Re: Watch out overnight, the stars come out to play

Post by Dave Brown » Sun Mar 23, 2014 9:49 am

One really annoying thing I've noticed recently since working evenings.. The weather after the late evening news does not give the overnight temps. Instead they skip to 8am as though the overnight low has already happened. :roll:

Not working today for a change so will keep my eyes and ears open. :wink:
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Re: Watch out overnight, the stars come out to play

Post by Dave Brown » Sun Mar 23, 2014 4:48 pm

BBC lunchtime news, weather showed widespread -3 to -6C with some places colder, so has the Met Office been taken over by the Daily Express, or are we in for an extremely cold night :?:
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Tom2006
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Re: Watch out overnight, the stars come out to play

Post by Tom2006 » Sun Mar 23, 2014 5:26 pm

Expect a really cold night. ..sadly.
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Re: Watch out overnight, the stars come out to play

Post by otorongo » Sun Mar 23, 2014 5:27 pm

The BBC and Metoffice are giving London a low of 2C tonight icon_thumleft I've chucked some autumn leaves on the more exposed new shoots like Zantedeschia etc. to keep the potential ground frost off them.


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Re: Watch out overnight, the stars come out to play

Post by stephenprudence » Sun Mar 23, 2014 6:08 pm

Dave, when i first spotted this I had a difficult time, initially believing it, in fact you'll note a few posts back I said I don't think it'll happen - it can be quite difficult to know when the model is exaggerating or true - most of the times there is exaggeration in the minimum temperatures, but every so often it gets it right.

Tonight is a strange one, on the face of it, temperatures as low as they're supposed to get don't seem likely, but something (probably cold upper air) will allow the heat to escape to a greater depth.

The Met-office are certainly right, they rarely get this kind of thing wrong, but we'll see. It's at this time of year we start seeing bigger differences between the coast and inland though, so coastal areas may barely get below 0C, whereas inland areas do.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: Watch out overnight, the stars come out to play

Post by Nigel » Mon Mar 24, 2014 6:27 am

Reality
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Blairs
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Re: Watch out overnight, the stars come out to play

Post by Blairs » Mon Mar 24, 2014 7:10 am

Nigel wrote:Reality
AccuWeather has -5c here now, my outdoor thermometer says -2.2c, visually frost has already gone from areas that have sun on them (even at 7am) and car does not need scraped. Glad I fleeced though.


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Re: Watch out overnight, the stars come out to play

Post by stephenprudence » Mon Mar 24, 2014 7:28 am

It did get cold last night but not as cold as expected, which is a good thing, and we have to take the positives from that.

The week ahead is looking decidedly better with light frosts at first, and a trend for warmer frost free conditions perhaps through the week - assuming the model output has it correct.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: Watch out overnight, the stars come out to play

Post by Nigel » Mon Mar 24, 2014 7:51 am

stephenprudence wrote:It did get cold last night but not as cold as expected, which is a good thing, and we have to take the positives from that.

.

Stephen, As far as I can see the reliable forecasts were accurate. Its the best start to spring for years , spring is something to enjoy, so i am going to stop reading the endless diatribes of daily express style depression and gloom and enjoy the weather , it just stresses me too much reading it.
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