How much Supercold notice do you need? debate thread...

[cordyman]

After reading the great discussion on the weather thread and the various opinions on how much notice is needed for everyone to protect against Supercold © spells. Many long term forecasts simply don't come to fruition, where as 5 day forecasts are usually very accurate in my area. I want to know personally how much notice the forum masses feel is necessary.


Copy and paste the below options and add your name under the most relevant, and then discuss....

A. 2 weeks and more, I need to get all the inventory and protection items in stock, i'm not prepared yet.

B. 1 - 2 weeks, there are items i'll still need time to source for protecting

C. 5-7 days, i've all the materials on standby, just need time to get in the garden
Tom, Nigel Fear

D. 3-4 days, I'm very prepared, several days notice is perfect

E. 48 hours, I can nip out at the drop of a hat and finish off any preparation, I prefer the most up to date predictions
Cordyman, Dave Brown, GoggleboxUK,





I chose E as the backbone of garden is readied once the first frosts are forecast for certain, then its simply a waiting game for any potential supercold. I check BBC once a day and this gives me enough info to leave the garden in stasis, and look for any sunny dry days to plan some outdoor activities etc. Once beeb gives me a supercold spell across the 5 day forcast, I can nip out and add any additional protection where needed, very quickly and without any excessive stress or worry weeks before.

[Tom2006]

Somewhere between C and D because I like to be prepared. That said ive reduced what needs protection. But I work shifts and have three little ones so sometimes I literally dont get the time to wrap protect the palms if stupid cold is on route.

[Nigel Fear]

C. For me too. [5-7 day's].

That way I can potentially leave all the preps until the weekend, and it gives the forecasters a chance to change their minds about the severity of the weather.
It don't alway's work out like that though, but I seldom lose a plant due to being un-prepared, more often it's because said plant is way out of it's 'zone' anyway.

[DAVIDEVANS]

None of the above. I often work 6 days a week and have stuff arranged for the 7th day so from end of October stuff gets wrapped and shifted when I have time.

[Dave Brown]

The planning for winter is almost a science for me, as everything is planned and documented, including instructions for erection of shelters and wind breaks. I have used an Excel spreadsheet, but am currently transferring to a MS Access database. Then I will be able to query by plant, by bed, by temp etc.

Once all this is planned, putting into action takes a few hours, as depending on the accuracy of the temp forecast only subsets of the plants may need protecting in one go. For me an accurate a synopsis is required rather than weeks of inaccuracy.

E for me 48hrs as I have always taken it to the wire, and was often out in the garden after midnight protecting on the night frost was due, and it would be taken off again once the cold spell was over.

[flounder]

I don't want to appear too cynical and I know I live in an area not renowned for it's Arctic conditions, but Cordy how do you sleep at night? You seem to be obsessing about this winters predictions!
Yes I know we've had a couple of dodgy ones of late and YES I know there's always a chance of the UK turning into a big block of ice, but just throw an extra blanket over the horse and put some knobbly tyres on your bike then go and get some extra fleece for plants you're worried about.
All that's left to do is after that is sit down with your favourite gardening book, have a cocoa and look forward to spring

[GoggleboxUK]

A. 2 weeks and more, I need to get all the inventory and protection items in stock, i'm not prepared yet.

B. 1 - 2 weeks, there are items i'll still need time to source for protecting

C. 5-7 days, i've all the materials on standby, just need time to get in the garden

D. 3-4 days, I'm very prepared, several days notice is perfect

E. 48 hours, I can nip out at the drop of a hat and finish off any preparation, I prefer the most up to date predictions
GoggleboxUK

Even 48hrs is a bit long. I tend to only really rely on the forecast for the day and check about an hour before it goes dark for the overnight update. if it predicts -3 or lower the protection comes out, if not I don't worry.

[cordyman]

I don't want to appear too cynical and I know I live in an area not renowned for it's Arctic conditions, but Cordy how do you sleep at night? You seem to be obsessing about this winters predictions!
Yes I know we've had a couple of dodgy ones of late and YES I know there's always a chance of the UK turning into a big block of ice, but just throw an extra blanket over the horse and put some knobbly tyres on your bike then go and get some extra fleece for plants you're worried about.
All that's left to do is after that is sit down with your favourite gardening book, have a cocoa and look forward to spring

Flounder its months off from any sunbathing, cold beer action, surrounded by my palms weather, this topic is about as on-trend as it gets before December

If you actually read the OP you'll see i'm of the glass half full variety

[cordyman]

updated OP, cheers for thoughts

[huporhaha]

The honest super honest truth .......I'm past caring. 5 hours....5 days.....5 weeks......all inaccurate here. We have had sub zero when 4 degrees forecast and above freezing when minus 4 is forecast or more usually vice versa......just wrap,wrap, super wrap and pray is my motto....

[bordersboy]

I need 5 days notice as im away during the week mostly. I never listen to extended forecasts beyond 5 days because they are usually wrong and thus meaningless to me where I live anyway.

[miketropic]

I usually pack it up to soon but it gets much colder sooner here than it does over there..mid oct. it has to be done or your loses will be large

[Kristen]

I went "early" last year, working on 5+ day forecast. Wrapped / brought in and then we had a further 14 days before frost.

This year I prep'd everything - straw, chicken wire, list of plants to bring in - and did it on the day that frost was forecast. I work from home, so no big deal for me to spend the day doing that and then make up the time, no so easy for someone on 9-5 though ...

My bigger issue, this Autumn, was wet. I am wondering if I should have lifted Cannas and Dahlias before frost to have lifted them as the Autumn wet started to become persistent ...

[madgav]

I have two answers.

First and foremost I don't think there is much value in warnings about anything beyond the 5-7 day period since model output beyond that is very unreliable with cold scenarios probably less likely to verify than mild ones. If an 'event' has consistently been showing in the extended model outputs and is still there at t+120 then IMO that is when it becomes more likely and we need to begin to prepare for it.
Let's face it, if you need more notice than that you are probably not as prepared for winter as you should be!
Any model output beyond 5-7 days is just for fun.

Secondly, my current plan is to have my winter protection in place from mid-November to mid-March, so I'm more than happy with 48hrs warning of any cold spell. Only in the event of very abnormal cold would I have to have any additional protection.

[Clive60]

If I know the temp is going below -2c on a particular night I'll temporarily put fleece bags on 6 of the more tender plants otherwise nothing.