Hardy Tropicals UK

Nigel wrote:I dont think that will be the worst storm, we have had at least 2 that will be worse. Dont forget the UK is accustomed to westerlies , the worst storms always come with southerlies. Furthermore,this one is going to zip past so the winds will be relatively shortlived. Anyway, a few more days and the severe stuff should be over, I am sticking to my forecast that this coming weekend will see last of the sequence of severe storms for time being.

I'll drink to that

stephenprudence wrote:

cordyman wrote:

stephenprudence wrote:Oh crappe. Im in trouble

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is this chart reliable? how accurate as only 2 days off? worst storm of the winter so far? and your predictions for manchester?

Id say so, the storm has been making northwards progress so far through the week, it's likely to verify as a very strong storm, it could move north or south of here but most models put it around where it is now.. I'd say tomorrow night it will be reliably positioned. Strong winds for Manchester of course, around 50-60mph gusts should this verify.

I would stick my neck out and say this will be the worst storms so far in terms of widespread strong wind yes.

Cheers Stephen, i'll block in the flyaway greenhouse with wheely bins again

Nigel sorry pal, I dont agree with your assessment about this not being the worst storm (assuming you're talking about tomorrows storm).If you are referring to tomorrows storm then I think you're wildly underestimating the wind field with this storm, you'll come to find this out tomorrow evening. You may not be hit directly with the worst winds, but coastal areas in SW Wales up into Northern England will most likely see considerable damage. It looks very similar to 2007 and 1997 storms, which caused bad damage in this region.. if you don't know of them, look them up - some horrible damage in both storms.

I would urge people not to underestimate this storm, it's a very dangerous storm. The Met-Office have it on the level below red, which it may well change to.. red would indicate a life threatening storm.

Agree Stephen the met office in the last 3 hours has changed my forecasted wind speed from 53mph to 65mph and it'll will probably get higher!

stephenprudence wrote:Nigel sorry pal, I dont agree with your assessment about this not being the worst storm (assuming you're talking about tomorrows storm).If you are referring to tomorrows storm then I think you're wildly underestimating the wind field with this storm, you'll come to find this out tomorrow evening. You may not be hit directly with the worst winds, but coastal areas in SW Wales up into Northern England will most likely see considerable damage. It looks very similar to 2007 and 1997 storms, which caused bad damage in this region.. if you don't know of them, look them up - some horrible damage in both storms.

I would urge people not to underestimate this storm, it's a very dangerous storm. The Met-Office have it on the level below red, which it may well change to.. red would indicate a life threatening storm.

the beeb are totally unaware of it on the forecast thus far

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643123

The BBC are not the best forecast to use as they don't use gusts only mean speeds. Don't forget Manchester is inland so won't be hit hardest.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weat ... 1392163200

top gusts roughly 56 to 60mph for Manchester.

stephenprudence wrote:The BBC are not the best forecast to use as they don't use gusts only mean speeds. Don't forget Manchester is inland so won't be hit hardest.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weat ... 1392163200

top gusts roughly 56 to 60mph for Manchester.

Cheers Stephen, I never use the met office, but its a nice detailed forecast that, looks like rush hour at 6pm is kick off time for the storm


Also thought this was good from that link, as clients often have the perception its always raining here

"Manchester, like most of Britain, experiences a generally mild climate and while there is a commonly held perception that it receives a lot of rain, in fact, it receives slightly less than the UK average."

Stephen, south western winds do less damage than southerlies , i am not denying the wind potential, but a westerly will never be as bad as a southerly. The country is better adapted to wind from that direction. It was a southerly that took down the railway at dawlish and did all that damage and I doubt this storm will be as bad, even if the wind potential is greater.
Thats what i was trying to say , not talking about wind speeds, i am sure west facing coasts will get it worse , but the storm overall is less threatening to the country generally and will pass through quickly.
A southerly like this at this point would be horrendous.

Nigel wrote:Stephen, south western winds do less damage than southerlies , i am not denying the wind potential, but a westerly will never be as bad as a southerly. The country is better adapted to wind from that direction. It was a southerly that took down the railway at dawlish and did all that damage and I doubt this storm will be as bad, even if the wind potential is greater.
Thats what i was trying to say , not talking about wind speeds, i am sure west facing coasts will get it worse , but the storm overall is less threatening to the country generally and will pass through quickly.
A southerly like this at this point would be horrendous.

Im not sure I agree re: the southerly thing.. maybe for people exposed to southerlies (ie south coast, etc)..

Its an each to their own thing.. a westerly will be worse for the west than a southerly will, and a southerly will be worse for the south than a westerly will be.

The reason this storm will be worse than the others is the south will get heavy rain, whilst the west will get severe winds.. so more area will be affected by severe events.

Winds are always strongest on the southwestern flanks of lows, so technically southwesterly winds are stronger than southerly winds.

I agree with Stephen we have much more west facing coast than south coast so surely more coast to be damaged and cause disruption too.

Keep safe people.

here's the latest flood warning map:

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/ho ... 42151.aspx

stephenprudence wrote:
Im not sure I agree re: the southerly thing.. maybe for people exposed to southerlies (ie south coast, etc)..

Its an each to their own thing.. a westerly will be worse for the west than a southerly will, and a southerly will be worse for the south than a westerly will be.

The reason this storm will be worse than the others is the south will get heavy rain, whilst the west will get severe winds.. so more area will be affected by severe events.

Winds are always strongest on the southwestern flanks of lows, so technically southwesterly winds are stronger than southerly winds.

Stephen, I dont think there is any doubt it will be the most intense storm, however the wind almost always come from the south west. Everything is adapted to wind from that direction, especially the countries storm defences.
If you look at the great storms , in terms of damage rather than intensity, its almost always southerlies that do most damage, even at lower wind speeds, because neither man nor nature is adapted for wind from that direction. You only have to look at a large tree near a coast to perceive its adaptation to the prevailing wind direction.
Anyway 2 just more storms to go and it should be over. Saturday looks potentially even worse to my eye.

Just seems like normal weather to us on the south coast so far this winter !

The Wind Arrows looked very Southerly on the BBC's chart this morning - although I don't know whether that's just the track of this low? rather than a proper Southerly gale (which might be a different weather system perhaps?)