Daily Express takes its global warming theorum up a level!!

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Dave Brown
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Re: Daily Express takes its global warming theorum up a leve

Post by Dave Brown » Sun Feb 16, 2014 1:08 pm

Nathan wrote:it may well have been even wetter in January 1066 but this is of little relevance to people who have had their homes & businesses flooded...
Yes, little relevance to those flooded, but very relevant in the scheme of things where the doomsdays climate change brigade are concerned.
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Nathan

Re: Daily Express takes its global warming theorum up a leve

Post by Nathan » Sun Feb 16, 2014 3:06 pm

Dave Brown wrote:
Nathan wrote:it may well have been even wetter in January 1066 but this is of little relevance to people who have had their homes & businesses flooded...
Yes, little relevance to those flooded, but very relevant in the scheme of things where the doomsdays climate change brigade are concerned.
Yes it is relevant, the genuine climate change scientists (not the tabloid doom mongers) are more than aware that the climate has always changed & these same scientists have never said it is as simple as 'Global Warming', but that we will get more extremes, which we have had. Just because the climate has always changed though doesn't mean we should dismiss what is happening around the world now. It will, & is, affecting everyone, if people want to debate if it is caused by man or not that is irrelevant as it wont make any difference the climate is changing...
Last edited by Nathan on Sun Feb 16, 2014 3:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Leigh
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Re: Daily Express takes its global warming theorum up a leve

Post by Leigh » Sun Feb 16, 2014 3:49 pm

Nathan wrote:
Dave Brown wrote:
Nathan wrote:it may well have been even wetter in January 1066 but this is of little relevance to people who have had their homes & businesses flooded...
Yes, little relevance to those flooded, but very relevant in the scheme of things where the doomsdays climate change brigade are concerned.
Yes it is relevant, the genuine climate change scientists (not the tabloid doom mongers) are more than aware that the climate has always changed & these same scientists have never said it is as simple as 'Global Warming', but that we will get more extremes, which we have had. Just because the climate has always changed though doesn't mean we should dismiss what is happening around the world now. It will, & is, affecting everyone, if people want to debate if it is caused by man or not that is irrelevant as it wont make any difference the climate is changing...

So the question is, can Mankind do anything to stop this change ?

My own opinion is NO, we just got to adapt to live with it as Mankind has always done.
It's called Evolution
No amount of green taxes are gonna make a blind bit of difference, just make some fcukhead rich
Leigh

Andy Martin

Re: Daily Express takes its global warming theorum up a leve

Post by Andy Martin » Sun Feb 16, 2014 9:26 pm

It was actually the same Daily Express that said last Autumn that we were going to have a 3 month freezing Winter...oh well.
I really do wish we would get the hell out of the EU as this institution is the main cause for the massive rise in our Energy bills. Its carbon reduction directives will eventually make this Country unproductive and lead to seventies style blackouts. Too many Politicians have sold their soul to the green brigade to make a lot of money.... I believe Tim Yeo is the latest to be deselected by his constituents because of his green money making activities.
And then there's Ed Davey whose Knowledge of Climate change could be written on a postage stamp.
As for our Climate change Scientists.. well they rely on Super Computers that belch out data that was incorrectly inputted in the first place. I think Christopher Booker sums this whole debacle in one
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weath ... claim.html

Nigel

Re: Daily Express takes its global warming theorum up a leve

Post by Nigel » Mon Feb 17, 2014 3:19 pm

If its the Daily Express who are the gloom mongers who revel in bad winter weather , then the opposite must be the Daily Mail see this link. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/ ... paign=1490

I actually checked this out , and in fact there is a reasonable basis to it , although the german guy forecasting a 3 in 4 chance is in fact doing what the UK small guys do to try and get noticed , he is trying to make a name for himself. Nobody listens to smalltime forecasters who dont blow things out of proportion, thats why they like to exagerate everything in hope they will finally get one right.

So lets look at the facts http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... -cpc_plume

Here we can see we have a roughly 40% chance of El Nino developing in springtime. El Ninos affect our weather in that they de-energise the jet stream which begins down in the gulf of mexico. This allows high pressure to form over our part of the world, and heat builds up. 1976 was a strong el Nino year. In fact long hot summers almost always coincide with strong El Nino events.
So 3 in 4 chance ? Errrm no, 40% chance of an El Nino forming and even then, our weather is only really affected significantly during strong El Nino events. So its realistically quite possible we could have a 1976 summer this year although the chance has been greatly overexagerated.

Given that the chance of El nino occurring is increasing I think there will be an El nino event at some point in the next year, so i think its likely we can expect a significant dry period at some point.

cordyman

Re: Daily Express takes its global warming theorum up a leve

Post by cordyman » Mon Feb 17, 2014 6:34 pm

Nigel wrote:If its the Daily Express who are the gloom mongers who revel in bad winter weather , then the opposite must be the Daily Mail see this link. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/ ... paign=1490

I actually checked this out , and in fact there is a reasonable basis to it , although the german guy forecasting a 3 in 4 chance is in fact doing what the UK small guys do to try and get noticed , he is trying to make a name for himself. Nobody listens to smalltime forecasters who dont blow things out of proportion, thats why they like to exagerate everything in hope they will finally get one right.

So lets look at the facts http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... -cpc_plume

Here we can see we have a roughly 40% chance of El Nino developing in springtime. El Ninos affect our weather in that they de-energise the jet stream which begins down in the gulf of mexico. This allows high pressure to form over our part of the world, and heat builds up. 1976 was a strong el Nino year. In fact long hot summers almost always coincide with strong El Nino events.
So 3 in 4 chance ? Errrm no, 40% chance of an El Nino forming and even then, our weather is only really affected significantly during strong El Nino events. So its realistically quite possible we could have a 1976 summer this year although the chance has been greatly overexagerated.

Given that the chance of El nino occurring is increasing I think there will be an El nino event at some point in the next year, so i think its likely we can expect a significant dry period at some point.

Significant dry makes me very happy! :D icon_salut icon_salut icon_salut

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Re: Daily Express takes its global warming theorum up a leve

Post by Dave Brown » Mon Feb 17, 2014 6:38 pm

The hot water in Indonesia at the moment is a La Nina, and Met have said that is what was driving our super fast jet. Interesting that 2003 was worse flooding than 2007, and similar to this year, but also ended up with our hottest weather since records began.

Fingers crossed :D
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Dave
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Roll on summer.....
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cordyman

Re: Daily Express takes its global warming theorum up a leve

Post by cordyman » Mon Feb 17, 2014 6:40 pm

Dave Brown wrote:The hot water in Indonesia at the moment is a La Nina, and Met have said that is what was driving our super fast jet. Interesting that 2003 was worse flooding than 2007, and similar to this year, but also ended up with our hottest weather since records began.

Fingers crossed :D

I like the link! Heres to a stinking, hot, sticky, sit out everynight summer icon_sunny icon_sunny icon_sunny

Nigel

Re: Daily Express takes its global warming theorum up a leve

Post by Nigel » Mon Feb 17, 2014 9:54 pm

Dave Brown wrote:The hot water in Indonesia at the moment is a La Nina, and Met have said that is what was driving our super fast jet. Interesting that 2003 was worse flooding than 2007, and similar to this year, but also ended up with our hottest weather since records began.

Fingers crossed :D
Dave, the last la Nina was 2012 , since then conditions have been neutral. In any case La Nina is characterised by colder than average water in the east pacific off of south america. Anyway, the important thing is that if indeed the ENSO forecast is accurate then we should see rapid warming of the east pacific and resultant de-energising of the jetstream.

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... uick-look/

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/ne ... and-floods

Mowgley

Re: Daily Express takes its global warming theorum up a leve

Post by Mowgley » Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:29 pm

I can see a hosepipe ban looming :D

Nigel

Re: Daily Express takes its global warming theorum up a leve

Post by Nigel » Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:43 pm

Mowgley wrote:I can see a hosepipe ban looming :D
That would seem an absolute joy right now.

stephenprudence

Re: Daily Express takes its global warming theorum up a leve

Post by stephenprudence » Mon Feb 17, 2014 10:48 pm

would be an even bigger joy in the summer months icon_thumleft even if we get a period of no rain this Summer - and I'm quietly confident this Summer will be dry, it won't be too much of a problem, as our groundwater should be fine for a while.

Nigel Fear

Re: Daily Express takes its global warming theorum up a leve

Post by Nigel Fear » Tue Feb 18, 2014 6:31 pm

As much as I'm peeved off with the rain etc, I still wouldn't want a 1976 summer thank you very much.
Warm and sunny yes, but periods of rain in between would suit me just fine.

cordyman

Re: Daily Express takes its global warming theorum up a leve

Post by cordyman » Tue Feb 18, 2014 9:41 pm

Give me another 2013 summer, dry is top of my list above anything else! then perhaps ramp up the temps even more. That would be sublime :D

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Leigh
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Re: Daily Express takes its global warming theorum up a leve

Post by Leigh » Thu Feb 20, 2014 1:05 pm

Nigel Fear wrote:As much as I'm peeved off with the rain etc, I still wouldn't want a 1976 summer thank you very much.
Warm and sunny yes, but periods of rain in between would suit me just fine.
I wouldn't mind a 76 Summer, though I must admit I spent most of it at the Beach being about 13 at the time,
But I would have to agree a bit of rain would be good mixed in.
Having had stand pipes in the street's down here and having to go to corner of the road to fill water container's up wasn't much fun

Just remembered the plagues of Ladybirds weren't much fun either,they were everywhere
Last edited by Leigh on Thu Feb 20, 2014 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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