Hardy Tropicals UK

Nathan wrote:it may well have been even wetter in January 1066 but this is of little relevance to people who have had their homes & businesses flooded...

Dave Brown wrote:

Nathan wrote:it may well have been even wetter in January 1066 but this is of little relevance to people who have had their homes & businesses flooded...

Yes, little relevance to those flooded, but very relevant in the scheme of things where the doomsdays climate change brigade are concerned.

Nathan wrote:

Dave Brown wrote:

Nathan wrote:it may well have been even wetter in January 1066 but this is of little relevance to people who have had their homes & businesses flooded...

Yes, little relevance to those flooded, but very relevant in the scheme of things where the doomsdays climate change brigade are concerned.

Yes it is relevant, the genuine climate change scientists (not the tabloid doom mongers) are more than aware that the climate has always changed & these same scientists have never said it is as simple as 'Global Warming', but that we will get more extremes, which we have had. Just because the climate has always changed though doesn't mean we should dismiss what is happening around the world now. It will, & is, affecting everyone, if people want to debate if it is caused by man or not that is irrelevant as it wont make any difference the climate is changing...

Nigel wrote:If its the Daily Express who are the gloom mongers who revel in bad winter weather , then the opposite must be the Daily Mail see this link. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/ ... paign=1490

I actually checked this out , and in fact there is a reasonable basis to it , although the german guy forecasting a 3 in 4 chance is in fact doing what the UK small guys do to try and get noticed , he is trying to make a name for himself. Nobody listens to smalltime forecasters who dont blow things out of proportion, thats why they like to exagerate everything in hope they will finally get one right.

So lets look at the facts http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... -cpc_plume

Here we can see we have a roughly 40% chance of El Nino developing in springtime. El Ninos affect our weather in that they de-energise the jet stream which begins down in the gulf of mexico. This allows high pressure to form over our part of the world, and heat builds up. 1976 was a strong el Nino year. In fact long hot summers almost always coincide with strong El Nino events.
So 3 in 4 chance ? Errrm no, 40% chance of an El Nino forming and even then, our weather is only really affected significantly during strong El Nino events. So its realistically quite possible we could have a 1976 summer this year although the chance has been greatly overexagerated.

Given that the chance of El nino occurring is increasing I think there will be an El nino event at some point in the next year, so i think its likely we can expect a significant dry period at some point.

Dave Brown wrote:The hot water in Indonesia at the moment is a La Nina, and Met have said that is what was driving our super fast jet. Interesting that 2003 was worse flooding than 2007, and similar to this year, but also ended up with our hottest weather since records began.

Fingers crossed

Dave Brown wrote:The hot water in Indonesia at the moment is a La Nina, and Met have said that is what was driving our super fast jet. Interesting that 2003 was worse flooding than 2007, and similar to this year, but also ended up with our hottest weather since records began.

Fingers crossed

Mowgley wrote:I can see a hosepipe ban looming

Nigel Fear wrote:As much as I'm peeved off with the rain etc, I still wouldn't want a 1976 summer thank you very much.
Warm and sunny yes, but periods of rain in between would suit me just fine.