Horrorwinter 2012.

sanatic1234

Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by sanatic1234 » Sat Feb 04, 2012 3:52 pm

Nigel wrote:
According to the GW scientists it cant happen. The sun is in a low cycle which isnt helping. NASA say the next cycle will be flat and similar to the maunder miniumum cycle which lasted over 40 years. HOWEVER, CO2 needs to fall below 235 ppm for an ice age to happen and its over 300ppm and rising. The irony is that mans climate change that everybody is so worried about may well be what saves us (at least until the sun comes out of its dormancy in another 70 years and then it would be a big problem) .
I can not remember the full report now Nigel but on the bbc news a few months back they was saying that the sun is showing more activity and something about the spots seen on the sun were now increasing? I don't understand it fully but from what i made out it was more spots the more activity due to there being more bursts of energy on the sun? Please put me right if that is not right i can not remember it fully from the report.

Nigel

Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Nigel » Sat Feb 04, 2012 4:07 pm

The cold of the last 3 winters coincided with a solar low, the lowest for 100 years. We are now into a new cycle and the sunpot activity is well up which is probably why you didnt suffer the same as the last 3 winters ( yet) .
However, the solar cycle lasts approx 11 years ,and when the next low occurs in 2020 , NASA are predicting that the next cycle wont happen because the sun is going to sleep which is called a grand minimum.
The suns output doesnt really change much and the difference is neglible but its the solar flares and UV radiation that is thought to be important because it energises the worlds jetstreams and without them the poles just become colder with deeper winters.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news ... e-science/

Exotic Life

Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Exotic Life » Sat Feb 04, 2012 5:21 pm

cordyman wrote:Exotic life when was the last time you seen those temps, or close to those temps? or havnt you? icon_scratch :shock:
I live in the southwest with was the "mildest" part and all year round the southwest is the mildest area. Before the last 3 cold winters came I never saw lower then -6C after I started growing palm trees. Most of my nights where not even below -3C. The last three winters shows me that I can be colder as well but on a few cold nights around the -7/-8 and one -10C nights the rest was similair to my "normal" winterfigures. Ice days are very rare here and I'm getting those now just like it's nothing.

I had -13.5C last night with mean I broke my personal record. Not direct a figure what could kill a Trachycarpus but combinated with the hard Ice days and coming forecast they going heavy damaged or dead this spring.

The last time it was very cold in the whole country we have to go back to 1997, well that our weatherservice says. Temperature like -20C, then we need to go back even further to the early 90's. There is some serious change going on here, the extremes in Holland get worse and heavier every year. Now it's the cold, then it's heat or even deadly tornado's and a increasing factor of supercells. They say that climate change is going with extremes, well in that case they are totally right.

By the way. -7.0C at the moment so another very very cold night is coming.

Nigel

Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Nigel » Sat Feb 04, 2012 5:27 pm

It looks like you have to hang in there another week then hopefully if the models are right it will break down. I guess 2 weeks like that will kill most palms in Holland including Trachycarpus. Terrible for you, and its going to stay cold in the UK as well although probably bearable.

Conifers
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Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Conifers » Sat Feb 04, 2012 5:31 pm

Exotic Life wrote:The last time it was very cold in the whole country we have to go back to 1997, well that our weatherservice says. Temperature like -20C, then we need to go back even further to the early 90's.
That's not very long ago! For a realistic look at any continuity, or change, in climate, you need to consider the extremes over at least the last 50 years, preferably the last 100 years. To discuss the hardiness of long-lived trees, more realistically the last 500 or 1000 years.

By those standards, the last 2 winters have not been unusual.

Axel

Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Axel » Sat Feb 04, 2012 7:14 pm

Robbin, i wasnt home last night so couldnt see the outside temps. According to your amateur readings map it seems that the area of Amsterdam fell into the -13C minimum?

thanks
Axel

Exotic Life

Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Exotic Life » Sun Feb 05, 2012 1:00 am

Conifers wrote:
Exotic Life wrote:The last time it was very cold in the whole country we have to go back to 1997, well that our weatherservice says. Temperature like -20C, then we need to go back even further to the early 90's.
That's not very long ago! For a realistic look at any continuity, or change, in climate, you need to consider the extremes over at least the last 50 years, preferably the last 100 years. To discuss the hardiness of long-lived trees, more realistically the last 500 or 1000 years.

By those standards, the last 2 winters have not been unusual.
Well of course you are right on that but who looks over 50 years or even 100 years? Nobody! Since the early 80's a very visuable temperature jump has been made with brought us much milder winters. Of course in that meanwhile there where quite cold temperatures above a snow cover like now. Most of the time that was in the more eastern area's. I said early 90's but it are the early 80's and the most cold records in the west are from the 70's. For example Rotterdam airport had with -16.2C the coldest night in 56 years.

Also in mind that February is one our milder wintermonths. The last time it was so cold like last night in this month we have to go back to 1956. Specially for the western area's last night was quite unsual. To give a short conclusion to this. Last night loads of cold records are broken on official and amateur weather stations.

Exotic Life

Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Exotic Life » Sun Feb 05, 2012 1:20 am

Axel wrote:Robbin, i wasnt home last night so couldnt see the outside temps. According to your amateur readings map it seems that the area of Amsterdam fell into the -13C minimum?

thanks
Axel
I've seen readings from Amsterdam with -13/-14 indeed. However it does depending on where you live I the city. Someone on the dutch weather forum told that temperatures where a bit milder in the centre of the city. Amstelveen had -14C as well, Schiphol even -18.

How does your Phoenix look at the moment?

Alexander

Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Alexander » Sun Feb 05, 2012 5:43 am

Well here is a list of coldwaves in The Netherlands during the last 100 years. They are not that rare. I have grown Trachychycarpus fortunei succesfully outside since 1980. But microclimate and shelter helps a lot during harsh winters!

http://www.knmi.nl/klimatologie/lijsten ... olven.html

Alexander

Alexander

Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Alexander » Sun Feb 05, 2012 5:47 am

The UK has the advantage of the warm Northsea. Usely its enough to keep the worst of winter at bay! The Northsea is arround 4 to 6 degrees right now.

Alexander

Nigel

Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Nigel » Sun Feb 05, 2012 6:24 am

Alexander wrote:The UK has the advantage of the warm Northsea. Usely its enough to keep the worst of winter at bay! The Northsea is arround 4 to 6 degrees right now.

Alexander
In this situation yes , but in December 2010 when it was from the North it was much worse than in holland

Axel

Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Axel » Sun Feb 05, 2012 7:27 am

Exotic Life wrote:
Axel wrote:Robbin, i wasnt home last night so couldnt see the outside temps. According to your amateur readings map it seems that the area of Amsterdam fell into the -13C minimum?

thanks
Axel
I've seen readings from Amsterdam with -13/-14 indeed. However it does depending on where you live I the city. Someone on the dutch weather forum told that temperatures where a bit milder in the centre of the city. Amstelveen had -14C as well, Schiphol even -18.

How does your Phoenix look at the moment?

Robbin, it has reached -5C on the coldest night, so that's not too bad considering the -13C outside. It will be interesting to see how it comes out. Most nights it dropped to -2C inside.

Exotic Life

Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Exotic Life » Sun Feb 05, 2012 11:44 am

Alexander wrote:Well here is a list of coldwaves in The Netherlands during the last 100 years. They are not that rare. I have grown Trachychycarpus fortunei succesfully outside since 1980. But microclimate and shelter helps a lot during harsh winters!

http://www.knmi.nl/klimatologie/lijsten ... olven.html

Alexander
But thats the Bilt... It says enough that Rotterdam had the coldest temperature since 56 years. Thats much longer ago then the last coldwave in the Bilt. In fact when you have 5 days with a maximum from -0.1 and 3 nights with -10.1C you have an officialy coldwave, so what does the name "coldwave" say in our country. Temperatures like that night with -13C/-15C on large scale along the coast is rare. Specially the southwest doesn't seen that kind of temperatures much.

We can't compare cold from 50 years ago to the cold from now. 50 years ago when a northwest winds where coming from the northwest during summer we had only 15C or so. The last few summers when the wind came from that direction we still had temperatures around the 20C. The weather from the last time is much different and instable then the history shows us, we seen much more extremes now. From no freezing to bloody cold. From a record dry November with lowest water in the rivers since they start recording to flooding problems in December...

Exotic Life

Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Exotic Life » Sun Feb 05, 2012 12:20 pm

Last night was a lot milder.... :x
Minimum temperatuur 04-02-2012.png

Nigel

Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Nigel » Sun Feb 05, 2012 12:24 pm

Robbin, I am very happy to see the temps rising slowly, I hope your plants can survive it, the one good thing is that it is February, and next month it can be warm and they can maybe recover.

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