Horrorwinter 2012.

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Adam D
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Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Adam D » Sun Feb 05, 2012 1:27 pm

Alexander wrote:The UK has the advantage of the warm Northsea. Usely its enough to keep the worst of winter at bay! The Northsea is arround 4 to 6 degrees right now.

Alexander
Being close to the North Sea did nothing for the temperatures up here last winter or the one before!


Nigel
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Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Nigel » Sun Feb 05, 2012 1:31 pm

Adam D wrote:
Alexander wrote:The UK has the advantage of the warm Northsea. Usely its enough to keep the worst of winter at bay! The Northsea is arround 4 to 6 degrees right now.

Alexander
Being close to the North Sea did nothing for the temperatures up here last winter or the one before!
The north sea it seems isnt a defence against the ADA ,lets hope its not back again,thats far worse than the siberian monster.
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Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Conifers » Sun Feb 05, 2012 1:35 pm

Nigel wrote:isnt a defence against the ADA
ADA :?: :?:


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Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Nigel » Sun Feb 05, 2012 2:07 pm

The cause of the last 3 winters, first observed in 2007 as a new weather phenomenon.
It hasnt appeared this year.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Global- ... nters.html
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Exotic Life
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Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Exotic Life » Sun Feb 05, 2012 7:29 pm

Nigel wrote:Robbin, I am very happy to see the temps rising slowly, I hope your plants can survive it, the one good thing is that it is February, and next month it can be warm and they can maybe recover.
Hi Nigel.

Well last night wasn't that bad as the night before indeed. I do think tonight would be not that bad either because it's cloudy at the moment and will stay for a long time. In the meanwhile today was very cold again (Figure shows maximum temperatures). Till wednesday the nights would be more clear again and the snow can do his work again. Specially till wednesday/thursday we are going to see much more temperatures between the -10 and -15C. Not that cold as that -20C but cold enough to kill some exotic stuff. Till that time negative daytemperatures as well between the -2 and -6.

I gave the Trachycarpus some protection for the first time since i'm growing palm trees and never though that I would do that. However I lost all my faith and don't trust the coming nights at all also with the knowledge the southwest was still the "mildest" area.
Maximum 05-02-2012.png


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Adam D
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Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Adam D » Sun Feb 05, 2012 8:29 pm

One or two extreme days and your plants should be okay.

However it looks like you are getting prolonged cold with no respite during the day. That's what happened to my plants during the last two winters and caused so much damage :(

I hope you get some respite soon.


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Exotic Life
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Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Exotic Life » Sun Feb 05, 2012 10:27 pm

Adam D wrote:One or two extreme days and your plants should be okay.

However it looks like you are getting prolonged cold with no respite during the day. That's what happened to my plants during the last two winters and caused so much damage :(

I hope you get some respite soon.
Not getting it we have it got already for a week and we are going to get if for another week at least. Last models shown even longer... specially those amount of ice days are very special to me. If the last models come true the longest cold wave since they start recording in 1901 is possible...

Somewhere i've some hope on the "warmer" february sunshine. If the sun shines the color from the leafes turn for a big part to the normal green even with freezing temperatures. Something what not always is visuable with a short frost period in January or December.


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Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Nigel » Mon Feb 06, 2012 7:19 am

It does look like it will be a 2 week freeze , and I hate to say it but even trachys cannot stand 2 weeks of severe day and night sub zeros like that. The weather in the UK is going to be borderline for survival of some things in some areas if it goes on another week, beyond that and it will get worse for survival rates.
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stephenprudence
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Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by stephenprudence » Mon Feb 06, 2012 7:34 am

Nigel, this morning I checked on the temperature forecasts on the GFS. It showed widespread -5 to -7C for this morning. This means really the outputs can't be trusted at all, based on the 0z runs.. they are likely to be riddled with errors all over the place.

In my experience, even if something as menial as the temperature at 6 hours out is wrong, the whole run is then voided and binned.

Image

Even in a history of GFS cock ups this is one of the most spectacular.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Nigel » Mon Feb 06, 2012 7:39 am

Stephen I never look at those min/max temp figures they are always beyond reality and bad for the heart. I look at the 2m temp 9 panel as its more in line with reality. Two totally different readings ????? So the run is not rubbish, its just that stupid min/max run which I never trust any more because its always wrong.
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eddie
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Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by eddie » Mon Feb 06, 2012 8:28 am

Tmin -6.4C Tmax -3.4C

Forecasts show only icedays to come...

I've given my Trachycarpus a light string on the trunk to keep it warm. I'm thinking of covering it tonight, as another strong freeze is supposed to be coming. The unbelievable low temps did not reach my innercity garden yet. I'm surrounded by three storeys high residential buidlings. Lots of foreigners from tropical countries who surely heat up their homes and the whole area. Fingers crossed, light strings are keeping temperatures around 0. Lowest in the shelter at ground level was -1.9C a few nights ago when the airport 10 miles away say -17.2

I'm worried that the condensation inside the shelters might cause things to rot instead of freezing. If I switch the lights off the condensation freezes, as does the air inside so thats not an option. This record breaking coldspell pushes us to really get to be gardening on the edge.
Washingtonia Trachycarpus Cordyline? Bamboos Olive tree? Bananas


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Exotic Life
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Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Exotic Life » Mon Feb 06, 2012 10:08 am

Nigel wrote:It does look like it will be a 2 week freeze , and I hate to say it but even trachys cannot stand 2 weeks of severe day and night sub zeros like that. The weather in the UK is going to be borderline for survival of some things in some areas if it goes on another week, beyond that and it will get worse for survival rates.
And because of that I give all my Trachycarpus some fleece and plastic that will be removed when temperatures come above zero again. Don't think fungus will give any problems then. Hopefully the growing point will stay alive, if not and the palms will die it's over for me.

Some leafes of my Trachycarpus palms does really look rubbisch already, brown and fried. Specially the ones that don't see to much sunshine during the days.
Last edited by Exotic Life on Mon Feb 06, 2012 10:28 am, edited 1 time in total.


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Exotic Life
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Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Exotic Life » Mon Feb 06, 2012 10:10 am

eddie wrote: I'm worried that the condensation inside the shelters might cause things to rot instead of freezing. If I switch the lights off the condensation freezes, as does the air inside so thats not an option. This record breaking coldspell pushes us to really get to be gardening on the edge.
The first thing to do when the daytemperatures come above zero is to give it fresh air. I'm gonna do that as well.


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Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by Exotic Life » Mon Feb 06, 2012 10:21 am

During sunrise the sky got clear with means the temperature dropped like a stone to -8.2C as minimum. The whole night the temperatures where between the -5 and -6 because the clouds.

Incredible to see that this morning the middle of Holland dropped to -15C and more again. At this moment it's still -10C over there and it's almost 12.00 hour! I do see another -20C and -15C on large scale coming tonight when it's clear from the beginning till the end. There will be not more palm or exotic garden freaks left this year after this I guess. I don't think some people in those incredible cold area's will start over again.
Minimum temperatuur 05-02-2012.png
Quite special is the relative humidity since the frost period started. On some moments left the RV is mostly between the 30% and 45%. That's very dry for us normally but it will be a side effect from this situation.


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MikeC
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Re: Horrorwinter 2012.

Post by MikeC » Mon Feb 06, 2012 11:34 am

Seems to me, whether natural or man made, the climate in Europe is changing to bitterly cold winters, but mixed with record breaking warm spring and autumn periods.

A lot more effort (in time and money heating plants) is required to get them through winters now. More like the Canadians in terms of building semi-permanent frost protection structures and lots of rope lights on everything.

:roll:


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