Cold Winters for Britain

[Dave Brown]

What I want to know is where the drought fit in with it ? as that is as likely to force changes in my gardening style as freezing winters. If it carries on like this I'll need a desert garden.

[stephenprudence]

Nothing wrong with a garden full of Yuccas (hardy ones of course) Dave.

Reading back on some historical excerpts from before records began.. there are written records was as far back as 1000AD. There are some talk where a decade might be particularly dry, and within that exceptionally dry period, some very cold winters and exceptionally hot summers.

One record I recall reading suggested the 5 years drought, where virtually no rain fell for 5 years, the land turned to desert

I can't remember what year, but I think 1150 or something similar.

[Adrian Brattle]

This winter we have had the opposite extreme in the way of a +AO/+NAO

The extreme -NAO/AO may lead to a warmer tropics due to heat not being transported to the mid-latitude through the atmospheric wind circulations. so the NAO/AO may eventually turn to an extremely positive mode to transport the extra heat polewards.

Or it could be energized by the suns particles.

[Tom2006]

This winter we have had the opposite extreme in the way of a +AO/+NAO

The extreme -NA0/AO may lead to a warmer tropics due to heat not being transported to the mid-latitude through the atmospheric wind circulations. so the NAO/AO may eventually turn to an extremely positive mode to transport the extra heat polewards.

Sorry Adrian, you have got me on this, so do you think we will warm up in the UK or go the other way?

[Adrian Brattle]

This winter we have had the opposite extreme in the way of a +AO/+NAO

The extreme -NA0/AO may lead to a warmer tropics due to heat not being transported to the mid-latitude through the atmospheric wind circulations. so the NAO/AO may eventually turn to an extremely positive mode to transport the extra heat polewards.

Sorry Adrian, you have got me on this, so do you think we will warm up in the UK or go the other way?

Its hard to say. we could have 3 or 4 winter of extreme -AO/-NAO followed by a winter of an extreme +NAO/+AO. we could have a future where we are jumping from extremes.

[Tom2006]

This winter we have had the opposite extreme in the way of a +AO/+NAO

The extreme -NA0/AO may lead to a warmer tropics due to heat not being transported to the mid-latitude through the atmospheric wind circulations. so the NAO/AO may eventually turn to an extremely positive mode to transport the extra heat polewards.

Sorry Adrian, you have got me on this, so do you think we will warm up in the UK or go the other way?

Its hard to say. we cold have 3 or 4 winter of extreme -AO/-NAO followed by a winter of an extreme +NAO/+AO. we could have a future where we are jumping from extremes.

To be honest our climate has always been a bit like that, although with global warming extremes will become the new normal.

[Adrian Brattle]

One winter my house could be buried in 3 week worth of snow. The next winter my house could be swept away with 80mph wind in flood.

[GoggleboxUK]

One winter my house could be buried in 3 week worth of snow. The next winter my house could be swept away with 80mph wind in flood.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlBiLNN1NhQ

[Adrian Brattle]

The winter of 2012/13 may be another extreme of +NAO/+AO. That makes it more likely for the opposite extreme for the winter of 2013/14. But we could go back into the oposite extreme next winter.

[The Codfather]

we have just come out of winter here and you are yalking about the next 2 already......

[Adrian Brattle]

we have just come out of winter here and you are yalking about the next 2 already......

I was talking about the extremes in th NAO/AO, not about the 2 upcoming winters. I only used it for an example.

[The Codfather]

[Nigel]

we have just come out of winter here and you are yalking about the next 2 already......

I was talking about the extremes in th NAO/AO, not about the 2 upcoming winters. I only used it for an example.

If we use the suns solar cycle as the basis for forecasting possible extreme winters as perhaps we should be given the relationship between solar minimums and cold winters ,then nobody needs to worry until winter 2018/2019.

[Adrian Brattle]

we have just come out of winter here and you are yalking about the next 2 already......

I was talking about the extremes in th NAO/AO, not about the 2 upcoming winters. I only used it for an example.

If we use the suns solar cycle as the basis for forecasting possible extreme winters as perhaps we should be given the relationship between solar minimums and cold winters ,then nobody needs to worry until winter 2018/2019.

The simple 11-year solar cycle alone cannot explain the extreme swing in the NAO/AO

[Tom2006]

No, but it has a big role to play. The problem is the global warming is creating displaced weather patterns and more extreme weather patterns.