More hot days this year to date, than last year put together

[cordyman]

Last year although pretty dry here overall, and bar April, didnt have any real standout heatwaves.

Would it be absurd to suggest weve already had more max hot days this year than last year put together? Don't know where i'd begin to search for this kind of data, UK wide or even locally

Be it more 22*c + days, 24*c+ days be nice to see some kind of comparison (i'm sure Stephen will be able to dig up some stats )

[GoggleboxUK]

Yes, that sounds wrong.

I think we had 9 good days in March and, so far, the same again recently but they are memorable because they were flanked either side by total shiite weather.

Remember last year had a really long growing season and we were still getting good days in November after an early start in March.

[RogerBacardy]

Different story in Surrey, we had a scorching hot and dry spring. April and early May in particular were well above average. With less than 5% of the annual rainfall for March, April and May. Hot and sunny but much too dry. Felt just like Summer. I was even swimming in the sea in April!

Also, last year was virtually frost-free here, with only a handful of light frosts in Jan, no snow and no prolonged cold-spells. Planted out my ensetes in Feb and didn't regret it! We got a memorable 30C in October and upper 20's in April. The actual summer months weren't too special, but with such a warm spring, autumn and the exceptionally mild winter months I was very happy. The sort of year that made me want to try a Phoenix canariensis again.

Here, 2012 has been the EXACT opposite of 2011 so far.

Plenty of snow, below average temps in Jan, Feb, April and early May, with one of the wettest springs on record, & the temps have rocketed just at the point where they were falling last year (late May). I wonder if the pattern will continue & this summer will be the opposite of last summer.

[GoggleboxUK]

I hope so Roger, as long as the pattern breaks and we don't get an opposite winter to last year as well. That would be worse than 2010.

[stephenprudence]

I will try and dig out some stats, although interestingly, for 2011, the warmest day of the year occurred at the end of October for many.

As for this summer, well expectations seems pretty low.. a few comments are the "astonishing similarity" to last year have started to crop up. If that's the case, it's not good news, but with 3 months of summer to come, we don't know.

[Tom2006]

This year has already been much much better here. Although we had a horrific april and most of May it was better in the sense that last spring we had very drying winds for long periods here which caused a lot of damage. That hasn't been the case here and with this last week of heat, the plants have started to catch up to where they should be.

No one can predict this summer, so its just guesswork. The weather forums are full of idiots either hoping for cold or hoping for stupid heat so you wont get a decent summary/prediction of what might happen, better just to look yourself.

[otorongo]

For stats, how about the growing degree days base 50, as provided by Wunderground (not for all stations though)?

Data for London:

2011
------
January: 4
February (1-28): 7
March: 14
April: 198
May (1-31): 204

TOTAL: 427

2012
------
January: 0
February (1-29): 12
March: 39
April: 12
May (1-30 only): 216

TOTAL: 279


My comment:
No way is this year better than last year. Jan and Feb's contribution is negligible. March was perceived as exceptionally good but that was by contrast to the cold of the winter and while nice for catching the longed-for sun, didn't really contribute much GDD.
April was as bad as February and thus useless. May 2012 has only been slightly better than May 2011.

[Tom2006]

but its not just temperature that impacts growth although those figures are pretty damning

[Conifers]

For stats, how about the growing degree days base 50, as provided by Wunderground (not for all stations though)?

Data for London:

Looks very dubious? Don't think London reached 50°C at any time last year??

Figures for GDD base 20 would be a better indicator of warm days, and base 25 for hot days.

[otorongo]

Looks very dubious? Don't think London reached 50°C at any time last year??

Figures for GDD base 20 would be a better indicator of warm days, and base 25 for hot days.

Base 50F, not C, and you take the average of max,min, not just the max.

For example...
A day with a max of 15C and a min of 5C contributes 0 GDD.
A day with a max of 20C and a min of 10C contributes (68-50)/2=9 GDD.

[Conifers]

Base 50F,

That mediaeval sh*t?! Why on earth are they using that?? That loses then any scientific credibility whatsoever.

[otorongo]

Base 50F,

That mediaeval sh*t?! Why on earth are they using that?? That loses then any scientific credibility whatsoever.

Wunderground is a US-based website, so that's what they're using.

You can multiply all the figures by 0.55 and you'll get GDD base 10C.

[cordyman]

For stats, how about the growing degree days base 50, as provided by Wunderground (not for all stations though)?

Data for London:

2011
------
January: 4
February (1-28): 7
March: 14
April: 198
May (1-31): 204

TOTAL: 427

2012
------
January: 0
February (1-29): 12
March: 39
April: 12
May (1-30 only): 216

TOTAL: 279


My comment:
No way is this year better than last year. Jan and Feb's contribution is negligible. March was perceived as exceptionally good but that was by contrast to the cold of the winter and while nice for catching the longed-for sun, didn't really contribute much GDD.
April was as bad as February and thus useless. May 2012 has only been slightly better than May 2011.

Wow thanks for the stats, thats pretty conclusive!! bar the heatwave this year has sucked balls weather wise


Can you run the same stats for Manchester?

[otorongo]

Can you run the same stats for Manchester?

Sure. Data for Manchester:

2011
------
January: 0
February (1-28): 4
March: 2
April: 80
May: 101

TOTAL: 187

2012
------
January: 0
February (1-29): 4
March: 13
April: 2
May: 133

TOTAL: 152

I'll leave the comments to you, Cordyman

If anyone else wants to get the stats for their location:

1. Go to the Wunderground page for your city, e.g. http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/03772.html for London
2. Click under "Weather Station", which will take you to the historical data page, e.g. for London that will be http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... story.html
3. If that page has a "Degree Days" section you're good, if not you can't get the GDDs.
4. Click on the "Monthly" tab
5. "Growing Degree Days (base 50)"/"sum" is the value to look at for the currently selected month.
6. Select another month/year from the dropdowns (ignore the day) or use the "Previous Month" and "Next Month" links.

[Exotic Life]

For here 2011 the first 5 months where much much better for growing and for myself. Of course summer wasn't that good in 2011 as well, so hopefully 2012 will be better.

2011 till 31-05

29 days with a temperature from 20.0C and higher, 10 of them where higher then 25.0C, and the highest maximum 29.8C.

Growing degrees days. (based on the same fahrenheit)
Jan: 3.0
Feb: 1.9
Mar: 28.8
Apr: 260.4
May: 303.8

Totall: 597.9 GDD

2012 till 31-05

20 days with a temperature from 20.0C and higher, 5 of them where higher then 25.0C, and the highest maximum 29.3C.

Growing degrees days. (based on the same fahrenheit)
Jan: 0.9
Feb: 0.6
Mar: 46.8
Apr: 49.7
May: 312.4

Totall: 410.4 GDD

So after such a bad winter, and on some days besides quite a poor spring, I really hope a warm summer will reach us. I really had the feeling last week when I was looking at the garden that everything was so far behind compared last year. If you see the figures that feeling isn't that wrong really..