Jet stream deserts us 13/03/2013

[Dave Brown]

This is the northern hemisphere jet stream map for 13th March 2013. UK circled red, and jets in grey, but the blue arrow shows there is a slack drift directly to us from the north pole. I don't think this is good

[Tom2006]

Worrying times indeed.

[GREVILLE]

On holiday. Gone for a blow in the Med.

[stephenprudence]

It looks like it will be a very long drawn out process to get away from frosty, well below average conditions, and we are looking at months, not weeks for this process to happen... some may well scratch their heads and think this absolutely ludicrous but it wouldn't be the first time in history our approach into summer has been a frosty one. It's actually documented one summer a fair while back (1100's?), had frequently frosty nights throughout summer, and daytime temperatures resembling that of winter... these occurrences are rare but do happen.

There are many years recorded 'without a summer', and those years were not years like last year, but years far far colder, with summer means I imagine being in the single figure temperature category! (for example similar means to March or April!)

The jet does seems to buckle as it approaches Europe, this is something to worry about, and it is, I suspect, here for the long term.. so two options I imagine, tough it out and adapt, or move west.. I think USA is going to get frequent instances of warm winters over the next few decades (but obviously with infrequent occasions of extreme cold)

[Dave Brown]

There is a major warm northward incursion into the Arctic over the other side, and everything seems to be pushed southward on our side. The jet over the Atlantic has a MAJOR kink ending up with jet over Spain and North Africa. This is it's normal position in much colder periods, like Ice ages when the Sahara was green and fertile.

Nigel has not posted for a while that I can see, but the Azores high seems to have ridged up to Greenland so lows are forming over Iceland and trundling south. This is similar to December 2010. Just my untrained observations

[GoggleboxUK]

Looks as though we might be getting some serious solar flaring, sunspots and CMEs over the next week too so that could help hit the reset button.

Fingers crossed!

[stephenprudence]

Yes Dave, those maps sadly, have all the hallmarks of a long term change. The jetstream is roaring through Spain... if this was short term change I'd expect to see the jetstream very fragmented and all over the place.. unfortunately that's a very organised jet stream, and one that looks pretty stable overall.

[stephenprudence]

Looks as though we might be getting some serious solar flaring, sunspots and CMEs over the next week too so that could help hit the reset button.

Fingers crossed!

I doubt it will hit the reset button, the overall sun is very quiet, some short term flaring won't change this, however the last forecast for flaring was a complete failure, so I', not sure I buy into this one.

[GoggleboxUK]

There are some massive double force weather systems over the continental US right now which could be accounting for a draw acrosss the Atlantic. These are set to cancel each other out shortly so that pattern is very likely to change.

[Dave Brown]

Yes Dave, those maps sadly, have all the hallmarks of a long term change. The jetstream is roaring through Spain... if this was short term change I'd expect to see the jetstream very fragmented and all over the place.. unfortunately that's a very organised jet stream, and one that looks pretty stable overall.

Just that it moves 10 degrees north in summer which puts it right over Northern France and Southern UK

[cordyman]

Thanks for the data Dave, interesting

[GoggleboxUK]

Looks as though we might be getting some serious solar flaring, sunspots and CMEs over the next week too so that could help hit the reset button.

Fingers crossed!

I doubt it will hit the reset button, the overall sun is very quiet, some short term flaring won't change this, however the last forecast for flaring was a complete failure, so I', not sure I buy into this one.

It's already started:

[cordyman]

Looks as though we might be getting some serious solar flaring, sunspots and CMEs over the next week too so that could help hit the reset button.

Fingers crossed!

I doubt it will hit the reset button, the overall sun is very quiet, some short term flaring won't change this, however the last forecast for flaring was a complete failure, so I', not sure I buy into this one.

It's already started:

great video!

[Tom2006]

Always leaves me in awe when I watch the sun. Hard to comprehend the power...in fact I can't!

Lets hope it fires up BIG style and gives us a summer to remember, for the right...hot....reasons.

[Dave Brown]

Always leaves me in awe when I watch the sun. Hard to comprehend the power...in fact I can't!

Lets hope it fires up BIG style and gives us a summer to remember, for the right...hot....reasons.

Not too much, or it will blast our atmosphere away but wouldn't need to worry about CO2 then