Long cooling period ahead??

[Alexander]

Well winter is back in the Alps. Snow at arround 2000 meters iun Austria. So for those interested into wintersport...

Alexander

[Dave Brown]

Well winter is back in the Alps. Snow at arround 2000 meters iun Austria. So for those interested into wintersport...

Alexander

So glaciers will start to advance again if we are getting snow in June up there.

[tropical Tom]

Well winter is back in the Alps. Snow at arround 2000 meters iun Austria. So for those interested into wintersport...

Alexander

So glaciers will start to advance again if we are getting snow in June up there.

I saw snow up there last august and the august before that, guess it's always there!

[Conifers]

So glaciers will start to advance again if we are getting snow in June up there.

If it went on happening year after year - or more realistically - decade after decade - then yes, it would. But that's highly unlikely to happen.

[Tom2006]

It doesnt matter how much snow falls if the temperatures on average are higher, especially lower down. The glaciers on NZ are proof of this. They have some of the highest snowfall in the world yet rising temperatures have seen dramatic reduction in the glaciers.

[GoggleboxUK]

Ask yourself a couple of questions,

1 - Why is it cooler at night than day ?
2 - Why is it colder in winter than summer ?

Answer.... Less solar radiation

Anyone saying a weaker sun won't make a difference is talking out of their 'arris

What he said

Our monitoring of the sun has only just begun in the last decades with any real accuracy but chances are, with such low solar activity occuring in a solar maximum year, we are embarking on a much larger solar cycle and one which we have no real data to compare against other than non-helioscientific historical records.

My advice is not to worry. It's the beginning of summer.

When it gets to the end of autumn just make sure you have enough protective equipment and, should we get another 2010-like winter (remember they said once in 100 years) then you'll be fine.

If not, plant natives or Scandinavian alpines and get on with it.

[Rabbie]

It doesnt matter how much snow falls if the temperatures on average are higher, especially lower down. The glaciers on NZ are proof of this. They have some of the highest snowfall in the world yet rising temperatures have seen dramatic reduction in the glaciers.

What matters is how much snow is left at the end of summer, snow levels can totally fall off in a colder climate and glaciers will grow. Providing the snow that does fall survives summer, a warmer climate that doesnt melt the ice in summer due to a cooler summer and warmer winter will throw higher average temperatures out the window. Like wise a cooler climate with cooler winters and hotter summers that melts all the ice will again throw out the average temperature. Glaciers are a bad choice for climate measurement, as its totally dependant on the summer temperatures and totally disregarded winter.

[Tom2006]

I feel that I can just about cope with a Dec 10 ish cold spell but winter just gone has wiped out most of my ensetes, my dahlias and certainly cannas due to the longevity of the average cold. Can't really protect against that. I do hope we get a shorter winter this year. On a positive note July looks like being nice and warm like summers of old.

[Alexander]

Well winter is back in the Alps. Snow at arround 2000 meters iun Austria. So for those interested into wintersport...

Alexander

So glaciers will start to advance again if we are getting snow in June up there.

I saw snow up there last august and the august before that, guess it's always there!

It was below the treeline, thats not normal. Snow at 3500 meter and higher is normal though.

Alexander

[Nigel]

I think the Russian article is essentially correct and why we have seen bad weather.
The sun is currently a bit more active than it was , we just passed through a solar minimum and are now at a peak, albeit a lower than normal one. However the sunspot cycles are on a downward trend again and they are forecasting a spell similar to what we had in the maunder minimum period when there was record cold and the thames famously froze over.
Will it happen again.... no.
Firstly the CO2 will protect us , global warming and effects of the low solar activity are cancelling each other out.

The sun doesn't actually put out less heat during a period of inactivity , or at least not enough to make much difference. It is the sunspot activity that drops. It is not fully understood but sunspot activity energises jetstreams ,there was a recent scientific article on this subject. This means that the transportation of warmth by jetstreams is diminished. When we enter periods of low solar activity the worlds jetstreams are de-energised and areas near to the poles become colder.
That is essentially what the UK has been seeing.

[Andy P]

Something i`ve noticed ,through following Sunspot activity for quite a while, is that we`re not experiencing anything even close to a repeat of the maunder Minimum. During the MM, Sunspots became such a rarity that in some years there were NO Sunspots recorded at all. For an entire year! Compare that to what we`ve seen over the past 12 months or 3 years say. We ARE getting plenty of Solar activity and plenty of Sunspots but for some strange reason they are not flaring on the Earth facing disc. If you follow the findings of the Satellites Stereo A and Stereo B you see lots of Sunspot activity , Lots of flaring and CME`s but as soon as these face earth they dissipate. Why this is happening , i don`t think anyone knows. But it IS happening. I agree with Nigel when he says the higher levels of Co2 in the atmosphere do go a way to cancelling out the lower Solar activity. If you follow ` Suspicious0bservers` channel on YouTube you can get a daily review on Solar activity and how it effects our climate which is unbiased. The lack of flaring on the Earth facing disc though is shrinking our atmosphere and i think this might be the biggest cause of our recent extreme Weather.

[Nigel]

Yes Andy, but it isn't until the end of this solar cycle that NASA are actually predicting the sunspot activity dropping right off like it did during MM. They are saying this will be the last active cycle. We are however already seeing the jetstreams de-energising, you only have to look at the USA where heat is building up and is not being distributed by jetsteams as it should be, whilst we continue to stay on the cool side.

[Dave Brown]

We are however already seeing the jetstreams de-energising, you only have to look at the USA where heat is building up and is not being distributed by jetsteams as it should be, whilst we continue to stay on the cool side.

This is part of the reason I don't subscribe to the Global Warming belief. As Solar output drops, the Earth's circulation slows down, allowing the centre of continents to overheat in summer and over cool in winter. This is why we are seeing extremes all over the place. Climate Change is occurring rapidly, but IMO nothing to do with CO2, but the changing sun.

On the 'Secret life of the sun' programme last week, the measurements of the magnetic field in the sun spots, show a reduction year on year regardless of the Maximum/Minimum cycle. This suggests the sun is on a long term downward part of a cycle of activity.

[Nigel]

Dave, the suns behaviour is very predictable , worryingly, NASA have been very accurate with their predictions.
If you are right we will plunge into a MM scenario within the next decade , if I am right GW will insulate us from that effect.

[Tom2006]

We are at very warm global temperatures with no let up in emissions of green house gases. I am on board with your thinking Nigel. In fact I'm looking at it another way. The calming sun is likely to temporarily save the earth from catastrophic warming.

On a serious note though, if temps do fall where in the world will remain warm?