October 2013 predictions?

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Kristen
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October 2013 predictions?

Post by Kristen » Wed Sep 11, 2013 11:12 am

You weather pundits have gone quiet (or I've missed it in other threads, sorry).

Always appreciate your thinking-out-loud, in particular for me this year as we are rebuilding the conservatory and I have no decent space for overwintering until November ... so I'd appreciate some predictions so that I can make a best-guess of whether I can fleece in-situ until then, or if I need to lift and store with neighbours ...
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otorongo
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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by otorongo » Wed Sep 11, 2013 11:37 am

Seems too early to make predictions for October?

September is looking like more of what we're having now, with a bit more sun in the second half.

I'm not worried about frosts in London until the second half of November.


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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by Kristen » Wed Sep 11, 2013 12:40 pm

otorongo wrote:Seems too early to make predictions for October?
2 - 4 weeks out - from memory that is what the discussion & debate normally covers?
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johnb23456
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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by johnb23456 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:57 pm

Don't think in Norfolk there will be any frosts in September or October, but I think once we get into November, I think we will get frosts - chilly nights are already present sometimes (as low as 6 degrees C one night) and we're only in mid to late September.


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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by otorongo » Wed Sep 18, 2013 8:30 pm

johnb23456 wrote:Don't think in Norfolk there will be any frosts in September or October, but I think once we get into November, I think we will get frosts - chilly nights are already present sometimes (as low as 6 degrees C one night) and we're only in mid to late September.
These chilly nights are an exception, I don't think they're an indication that frosts will come earlier. We're coming out of the weird pattern causing the unseasonably cold weather, things will get back to average eventually and the future patterns won't be affected by the current pattern.


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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by Yorkshire Kris » Wed Sep 18, 2013 8:53 pm

Dry, hopefully.


Tom2006
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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by Tom2006 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 8:57 pm

The Azores high that has brought us such a good summer keeps wanting to push back up, as it will do this weekend, and warm things up again. The polar ice coverage is huge this year which should allow for the polar vortex to become very strong (i.e. reduced displacement of very cold air south towards us). With these two things combined in theory we should hopefully be looking at a return to a more average UK winter. Obviously the global weather is in chaos so no one really knows.
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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by Conifers » Wed Sep 18, 2013 9:06 pm

Tom2006 wrote: The polar ice coverage is huge this year
It isn't huge - it is actually well below the long-term average, just not as extremely low as it has been in the recent few winters.


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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by Tom2006 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 9:18 pm

Conifers wrote:
Tom2006 wrote: The polar ice coverage is huge this year
It isn't huge - it is actually well below the long-term average, just not as extremely low as it has been in the recent few winters.
Well its 2 million square miles and a MASSIVE increase on this time last year but I agree against the long term average its much reduced. That said, its much higher than anything we have had since before 2008 when our winters began to get much colder hits. So personally I'm thinking it bodes well for use exotic gardeners. icon_thumleft

For anyone who is interested http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by GREVILLE » Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:04 pm

Well done, Kristen. You've drawn out the weather pundits...including a new one it seems... Welcome to the forum Johnb icon_cheers

I think we're headed for a warm start to October and a concentration of the season of mists and mellow fruitfulness thereafter. Likely if only for the law of averages mean that we've not had that weather type for ages.


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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by Conifers » Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:29 pm

Tom2006 wrote:Well its 2 million square miles and a MASSIVE increase on this time last year but I agree against the long term average its much reduced. That said, its much higher than anything we have had since before 2008 when our winters began to get much colder hits. So personally I'm thinking it bodes well for use exotic gardeners. icon_thumleft

For anyone who is interested http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
Almost exactly the same as 2009, so it could be like the 2009-2010 winter, if the linkage is reliable.

And yes 2m square miles more than this time last year, but also 2m square miles less than the 1980s average. Even by the standards of just ten years ago, the current ice would be seen as disastrously low.


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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by Kristen » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:26 pm

Conifers wrote:And yes 2m square miles more than this time last year, but also 2m square miles less than the 1980s average. Even by the standards of just ten years ago, the current ice would be seen as disastrously low.
But might the increase, rather than the total size, have a cause-and-effect?
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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by Dave Brown » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Conifers wrote:
And yes 2m square miles more than this time last year, but also 2m square miles less than the 1980s average. Even by the standards of just ten years ago, the current ice would be seen as disastrously low.
but is looks like the hockey stick was scare tactics.

2 million square miles will reflect a lot more sunlight so the Arctic should be colder
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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by Conifers » Thu Sep 19, 2013 7:38 am

Nope, it's just a blip in a continuing process. Year-to-tear weather has always had its ups and downs, and doesn't significantly affect the longer term trends.

The current ice cover - though a lot more than last year - is still the 5th lowest ever recorded. It absolutely supports the hockey-stick graph.


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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by Dave Brown » Thu Sep 19, 2013 8:03 am

Conifers wrote:
The current ice cover - though a lot more than last year - is still the 5th lowest ever recorded. It absolutely supports the hockey-stick graph.
We'll have to agree to differ on this, as there is data out there to support every theory. The data on global temps that pop up when you search "Global Temperature" show that temps have flattened off over the last 15 years, but, of course, if you search "Global Warming", you will get data to support that theory.
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