October 2013 predictions?

otorongo
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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by otorongo » Tue Oct 08, 2013 1:57 pm

Well the days from Thursday to Tuesday are looking dodgy. Not frosty, but not nice for us humans, and well below the norm, which is around 20C high / 12C low at this time of year.

Today a high of 20.1C and a low of 13.9C, so a slightly above average day.


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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by Dave Brown » Tue Oct 08, 2013 6:05 pm

otorongo wrote:Well the days from Thursday to Tuesday are looking dodgy. Not frosty, but not nice for us humans, and well below the norm, which is around 20C high / 12C low at this time of year.

Today a high of 20.1C and a low of 13.9C, so a slightly above average day.
You're measuring next to an Air conditioning vent.

LTA for London 8th October is Max 16.2C and Min 8.7C
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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by Nigel » Wed Oct 09, 2013 7:20 am

Nigel wrote:Charts have thankfully returned to a more normal look today for october after yesterdays minor panic.
Panic back on, this is worrying me, Greenland block in October would be extremely unusual , weather should be mobile right now.
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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by harryc » Wed Oct 09, 2013 7:58 am

Does seem early for a Greenland block, probably reflects how quite the Atlantic is at the moment. Not good signs with a huge pool of cold weather coming down over Scandinavia - oh well could be worse if this worse January with those Synoptics :shock:

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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by Dave Brown » Wed Oct 09, 2013 8:07 am

Nigel wrote:
Nigel wrote:Charts have thankfully returned to a more normal look today for october after yesterdays minor panic.
Panic back on, this is worrying me, Greenland block in October would be extremely unusual , weather should be mobile right now.
How do we know we haven't had Greenland blocks before :?: All the old pressure maps I've seen did not extend out that far. We've had periods of easterly winds in October and November before.
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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by Nigel » Wed Oct 09, 2013 1:54 pm

Dave, greenland blocks are not usual. This is a symptom of the Arctic Dipole Anomoly caused by melting arctic sea ice. High pressure is normal for October , but it should be azores highs ridging in, and continental highs dominating the weather, with the jetstream moving up our west flank, not seeing the azores high extending into Greenland !! The charts have backed off again now thank god, but the fact its appearing in and out of the scenarios shows we are in a very uncertain period and it could go either way. Eastern winds usually result from continental highs rather than Greenland blocks. Greenland blocks cut off our warm air flow, which makes us feel our Newfoundland latitude more than we normally do.
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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by Dave Brown » Wed Oct 09, 2013 5:36 pm

mmmm.... Friend on Facebook from Indiana just sent me this link. In it, it shows winter as a huge blocking high over western US with Jet stream diving down to Gulf on it's eastern flank. It then shows the jet going up the Eastern SEE Board, and has an arrow to EASTERN and GREENLAND BLOCK. :ahhh!: :ahhh!: :ahhh!:
http://bamchase.net/index.php/wx-info/b ... -forecasts.
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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by cordyman » Wed Oct 09, 2013 6:18 pm

I've had a great October so far, but it has to end sooner or later, last nights balmy 16*c night ride on the bike, has been replaced by what feels like a bone chilling 8.9*c right now! no more shorts and tshirt if I go out later :lol:


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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by Nigel » Wed Oct 09, 2013 9:36 pm

Dave Brown wrote:mmmm.... Friend on Facebook from Indiana just sent me this link. In it, it shows winter as a huge blocking high over western US with Jet stream diving down to Gulf on it's eastern flank. It then shows the jet going up the Eastern SEE Board, and has an arrow to EASTERN and GREENLAND BLOCK. :ahhh!: :ahhh!: :ahhh!:
http://bamchase.net/index.php/wx-info/b ... -forecasts.
Not imagining it then am I .....
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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by Tom2006 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 4:09 am

Very worrying signs in the models but it can all change quickly. ...lets hope it does change quickly.
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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by Nigel » Thu Oct 10, 2013 6:26 am

Tom2006 wrote:Very worrying signs in the models but it can all change quickly. ...lets hope it does change quickly.
yep the one thing we have in our favour is lack of consistency in models, so anything can happen,weather is in an uncertain phase right now.
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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by otorongo » Thu Oct 10, 2013 11:12 am

The weekend is looking rainy, and only the weekend.

They say sometimes when you have both A and B the result is not the sum of A and B but the product, or whatever, you get the gist.

That's how I sometimes feel about working in the UK.
Working in a country with a pleasant climate is a misfortune, because you're working and not getting much of that pleasantness, but you're still getting it for 2 days a week, so it's not that bad.
Living in the UK but not working is a misfortune, because there are not many nice days, but there is guaranteed to be *some*, so you're still getting something out of life, especially if you make it a point to make the best of the little good weather we get here. So again, not too bad.
But if you combine the two - the UK and work - you get a complete disaster. When you get sunshine from Monday through Friday, and the weekend is a washout, you get absolutely nothing out of life, and there is nothing you can do about it :(


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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by cordyman » Thu Oct 10, 2013 12:19 pm

otorongo wrote:The weekend is looking rainy, and only the weekend.

They say sometimes when you have both A and B the result is not the sum of A and B but the product, or whatever, you get the gist.

That's how I sometimes feel about working in the UK.
Working in a country with a pleasant climate is a misfortune, because you're working and not getting much of that pleasantness, but you're still getting it for 2 days a week, so it's not that bad.
Living in the UK but not working is a misfortune, because there are not many nice days, but there is guaranteed to be *some*, so you're still getting something out of life, especially if you make it a point to make the best of the little good weather we get here. So again, not too bad.
But if you combine the two - the UK and work - you get a complete disaster. When you get sunshine from Monday through Friday, and the weekend is a washout, you get absolutely nothing out of life, and there is nothing you can do about it :(
Putting so much reliance on good weather for a happy life isn't a good way to live though. I enjoy the 4 seasons, love snow fall and extreme cold, adore the change into autumn and the transforming landscape, on the flip side love heat. The garden may not like the former but my happiness comes before a plant.

Also wouldnt say we only get a few good days, the entire summer of 2013 has been top drawer here.


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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by otorongo » Thu Oct 10, 2013 12:31 pm

cordyman wrote:Also wouldnt say we only get a few good days, the entire summer of 2013 has been top drawer here.
How many good days a year would that be, 30? OK let's optimistically say 60. That's still 1/6 of the year... and only if you're not working.
cordyman wrote:Putting so much reliance on good weather for a happy life isn't a good way to live though.
Not in the UK, that's for sure. Prozac is much more reliable, or so they say ;)

But seriously, when you look at the copious warmth and sunshine that many parts of the world get, it's hard not to feel a sense of injustice... or at least that you're in the wrong place and should do something about it.
cordyman wrote:I enjoy the 4 seasons, love snow fall and extreme cold, adore the change into autumn and the transforming landscape, on the flip side love heat. The garden may not like the former but my happiness comes before a plant.
I don't like the seasons and would be happy to eradicate them from my life once and for all.
That's why I garden - to create an illusion that summer never ends, or at least lasts longer, even if it's not always warm and sunny.


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Re: October 2013 predictions?

Post by Nigel » Thu Oct 10, 2013 5:48 pm

London has a helluva lot more good days than we do , relying on weather is definitely not a good route to happiness in the UK. I escaped it for 4 years and it was wonderful, but now I am back and its part of life, I just dont want frozen wastelands.
12Z GFS also backed off today and looks more normal for the time of year, long may it stay that way.
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