Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

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Dave Brown
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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by Dave Brown » Sat Oct 26, 2013 8:26 pm

billdango wrote:I do remember that it wasn't possible even to overwinter C humilis outside up to about the early 1980s down here even in Southampton.

Every winter you had to take them under cover or they died of the cold. :(
My first gardening books had Trachycarpus fortunei hardy away from the east, and Chamaerops humils hardy from Dorset SW.
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stephenprudence
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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by stephenprudence » Sat Oct 26, 2013 11:34 pm

On the other hand here, generally winters have always been snowless, and actually the only bad snow we had was in 1947 and 1963 (but even then it wasnt horrific). As for cold, well temperatures have always been fairly decent, there have been odd years were it was cold.. but out of those, only the odd year would have killed a Cordy. It's only recently that the climate of this area, more closely resembles central UK rather than coastal UK. (Probably more to do with central parts in general getting milder)
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Dave Brown
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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by Dave Brown » Sat Oct 26, 2013 11:43 pm

stephenprudence wrote:On the other hand here, generally winters have always been snowless, and actually the only bad snow we had was in 1947 and 1963 (but even then it wasnt horrific). As for cold, well temperatures have always been fairly decent, there have been odd years were it was cold.. but out of those, only the odd year would have killed a Cordy. It's only recently that the climate of this area, more closely resembles central UK rather than coastal UK. (Probably more to do with central parts in general getting milder)
Are you talking of your local area Stephen :?:

I wasn't born in 1947 so I can't comment, but in 1962/3 I was 7 and living up on the North Downs near the A20 at West Kingsdown. The snow was up to my chest and the snow ploughs piled the snow and ice about 20ft high either side of the A20.

Kent is much nearer the continent so maybe imports more snow .

I started to grow Cordyline in 1973, near Dartford,Kent, and gave up in 1977 as not hardy. I didn't try again until 1991, and the resultant seed grown 'Cassie' died after the 2010 freeze :roll:
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eddie
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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by eddie » Wed Oct 30, 2013 2:45 pm

accuweather.jpg
Washingtonia Trachycarpus Cordyline? Bamboos Olive tree? Bananas


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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by stephenprudence » Wed Oct 30, 2013 11:13 pm

Yes Dave, my local area. People always comment on 63, and 47 as being very snowy, to them it probably was, I don't think they were exaggerating, though weather records from books I've read featuring Ness Gardens and Bidston weather stations, show snow here was far less than other places that year, only 8-12cm if I recall. Still deep but not as deep as other places. Before 2010 there were huge Cordylines in my town, and even bigger ones in central Wirral with a trunk girth of 40cm or so.. which suggested they'd been through a few decades and not succumbed to the cold.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by stephenprudence » Fri Nov 01, 2013 11:04 am

There's an odd pattern popping up in the charts as of late, and it's not showing every day, but it showing every other day it seems, which suggests it's possible in the long run, but of course by no means does it mean it will happen.. it's basically the European High developing, which sits over Europe and pumps in warm air from North Africa/Iberia. The last time we had a true Euro High in winter was 1988, and if you don't know how winter 1988 turned out, well it was something like the warmest on record.

This pattern reminds me a little of 2003 too, with high after high queueing up to invade the UK, but not any old high pressure, but a warm core high pressure than gives warm air (day and night) to UK and Europe. I have to be honest and say I've never seen this pattern before in winter, consciously. The chances are it probably won't occur, but there's a chance it will.

For those who read charts, here's a great example from winter 1988

Here is a chart from December 1988.. before the high sits in place

Image

Image

Then the high sat in place (above)

The end of December was a scorcher!

Image

Still Hanging on in mid- January 1989!

Image

No let up at the end of January 1989!

Image

Beginning of February - still there!

Image

Sadly it broke down in mid-February, had it continued to the end of February, it would have surely been a winter comparable in it's extremity for mild, as 1740 was for it's extremity for cold.

So there's a winter with a mild extreme instead of those winter we always quote for cold extremes.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by Andy J » Fri Nov 01, 2013 11:14 am

[quote="stephenprudence"]There's an odd pattern popping up in the charts as of late, and it's not showing every day, The chances are it probably won't occur, but there's a chance it will.


quote]


Said like a true tv weather forecaster. It might happen, it might not! :lol:


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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by Nathan » Fri Nov 01, 2013 12:56 pm

The Met Office have said it is looking mild from November through to January icon_thumright
Malta - USDA Zone 11a


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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by stephenprudence » Fri Nov 01, 2013 8:47 pm

where did you see that Nathan? I can't recall hearing anything
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by harryc » Fri Nov 01, 2013 9:54 pm

The Met Office don't predict anything beyond their monthly outlook especially after their barbecue summer prediction a couple of years ago


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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by madgav » Fri Nov 01, 2013 10:36 pm

Zone 9a (1992-2013). Last 21 winters: 9b (16), 9a (1), 8b (3), 8a (1)
Average annual min/max: -4.3°C (24°F) / 26.5°C (80°F)
Absolute extremes (1992-2013): -11.6°C/11.0°F, 31.0°C/87.8°F
Web: http://www.madgav.org
Weather: http://212.159.44.239/data/


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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by madgav » Fri Nov 01, 2013 10:40 pm

Or could be this other page:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/cl ... -seas-prob
Zone 9a (1992-2013). Last 21 winters: 9b (16), 9a (1), 8b (3), 8a (1)
Average annual min/max: -4.3°C (24°F) / 26.5°C (80°F)
Absolute extremes (1992-2013): -11.6°C/11.0°F, 31.0°C/87.8°F
Web: http://www.madgav.org
Weather: http://212.159.44.239/data/


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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by stephenprudence » Fri Nov 01, 2013 10:42 pm

Sounds like they are expecting a Euro High scenario during November. icon_cheers

I don't know about December-January but the relatively high SST's around our shores will have a positive impact no doubt.

Gav, on those maps, the estimation of lack of cold anomalies is staggering, maybe another anomalously warm global year.

Here's the global anomalies for the past 20 years? plus current. Make what you want of that.

Image

(this is the anomaly chart based on 81-10 averages - probably a great way of showing short term trends)
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by madgav » Fri Nov 01, 2013 10:52 pm

Yes November looks pretty good temperature-wise on both of those, with the extended outlook also quite positive. Usual caution required I suppose ;-)
I was just thinking that this autumn has been similar to 2011 iin some ways, I must admit I'd be more than happy with a 2011/12 type winter :)
Or an 88/89 :D
Zone 9a (1992-2013). Last 21 winters: 9b (16), 9a (1), 8b (3), 8a (1)
Average annual min/max: -4.3°C (24°F) / 26.5°C (80°F)
Absolute extremes (1992-2013): -11.6°C/11.0°F, 31.0°C/87.8°F
Web: http://www.madgav.org
Weather: http://212.159.44.239/data/


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Re: Worst winter in a generation 2013/14

Post by sanatic1234 » Fri Nov 01, 2013 11:19 pm

Nathan wrote:The Met Office have said it is looking mild from November through to January icon_thumright


They normally only do 5 day forecasts now? nothing has been mentioned on weatherview either? Not that those predictions will be right anyway. Like the metoffice has already said before it is very hard to get a 2 week report right due to the technology not being able to give right forecasts so far a head.
Best regards Aaron :)

Summer 2013 was a good one :-).

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