November 2013 prediction's ?.

Alexander
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Re: November 2013 prediction's ?.

Post by Alexander » Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:00 pm

Well with snow you get the albido effect. And much lower temperatures. Without snow you get less low temperatures. And you should mulch tender plants like Hedychiums in advance, well I always do that. So the roots and tubers are save then.

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Re: November 2013 prediction's ?.

Post by Nigel » Wed Oct 16, 2013 5:08 pm

stephenprudence wrote:To be honest Nigel, I think the models have a very 90s zonal look to them, I don't think the charts show blocking type scenario as per 2010. However the issue is pattern matching is fragile at best, and we just simply do not what might show up.
They didnt a few days ago, but I agree they look much better now. At the moment its a very mild outlook. Maybe the sea ice recovery this year is really going to give us a 90,s winter.
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Re: November 2013 prediction's ?.

Post by GoggleboxUK » Wed Oct 16, 2013 7:07 pm

The Daily Alarmist Express has, as usual, this:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/436170 ... r-November

Come February it will be predicting heatwaves again for next summer.

:roll:

I expect nothing unexpected this year.
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Re: November 2013 prediction's ?.

Post by Nigel » Thu Oct 17, 2013 5:37 pm

Nigel wrote:
stephenprudence wrote:To be honest Nigel, I think the models have a very 90s zonal look to them, I don't think the charts show blocking type scenario as per 2010. However the issue is pattern matching is fragile at best, and we just simply do not what might show up.
They didnt a few days ago, but I agree they look much better now. At the moment its a very mild outlook. Maybe the sea ice recovery this year is really going to give us a 90,s winter.
And now the 12Z reverts to Greenland block and apocalypse is back on.
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Re: November 2013 prediction's ?.

Post by harryc » Thu Oct 17, 2013 5:39 pm

Nigel wrote:
Nigel wrote:
stephenprudence wrote:To be honest Nigel, I think the models have a very 90s zonal look to them, I don't think the charts show blocking type scenario as per 2010. However the issue is pattern matching is fragile at best, and we just simply do not what might show up.
They didnt a few days ago, but I agree they look much better now. At the moment its a very mild outlook. Maybe the sea ice recovery this year is really going to give us a 90,s winter.
And now the 12Z reverts to Greenland block and apocalypse is back on.
And tomorrow it will revert back again, cant take one run as gospel, you know that Nigel better than most :wink:

H


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Re: November 2013 prediction's ?.

Post by Nigel » Thu Oct 17, 2013 6:34 pm

It means our weather can go either way Harry, there is no patterns right now, which itself is worrying.
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Re: November 2013 prediction's ?.

Post by stephenprudence » Thu Oct 17, 2013 10:03 pm

Im not worried, but at the end of the day, we're the ones gardening in a more than questionable climate.. one day everything is going to go wrong, whether that be this year, or in 30 years. Exotic gardening as we known it has it's days numbered, because one day a massive freeze will hit and people will lose faith. But while it's here I'm enjoying it!
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Re: November 2013 prediction's ?.

Post by Tom2006 » Thu Oct 17, 2013 10:07 pm

It hit in Dec 10 and we are still going. icon_thumleft
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Re: November 2013 prediction's ?.

Post by stephenprudence » Thu Oct 17, 2013 10:33 pm

Im talking more about the Lorna Doone type winter in the 1700s rather than a relatively warm December in comparison like 2010.
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USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
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Last 5 winter minimums:
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Re: November 2013 prediction's ?.

Post by fern Rob » Fri Oct 18, 2013 4:58 pm

Worst than October :lol:
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Re: November 2013 prediction's ?.

Post by Tom2006 » Fri Oct 18, 2013 5:06 pm

stephenprudence wrote:Im talking more about the Lorna Doone type winter in the 1700s rather than a relatively warm December in comparison like 2010.
No concerns about that considering the global warming. icon_thumleft
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Re: November 2013 prediction's ?.

Post by Nigel » Fri Oct 18, 2013 5:08 pm

stephenprudence wrote:Im talking more about the Lorna Doone type winter in the 1700s rather than a relatively warm December in comparison like 2010.
If the GW scientists are correct, as I suspect they are ,CO2 will not allow that to happen.
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Re: November 2013 prediction's ?.

Post by stephenprudence » Fri Oct 18, 2013 5:35 pm

Well it'll happen one day, regardless of CO2, but I hope it's not within our lifetime! In general though, by nature, our winters are mild with just rare exceptional freezes.
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2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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Re: November 2013 prediction's ?.

Post by Nigel » Sun Oct 20, 2013 4:59 pm

stephenprudence wrote:Well it'll happen one day, regardless of CO2, but I hope it's not within our lifetime! In general though, by nature, our winters are mild with just rare exceptional freezes.
Not if the ADA becomes a feature of our weather.
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Re: November 2013 prediction's ?.

Post by Dave Brown » Wed Oct 23, 2013 2:55 pm

From the BBC

Monthly Outlook
Summary
Enjoy the autumn colours whilst they last...

The dramatic rise in temperatures recently for many parts of the UK may have made some question why winter coats have been excavated from the back of the wardrobe. The weather last week turned fairly mild for most, thanks to a warm feed of air moving in from the south west. The thermometers peaked in Goudhurst, Kent on Thursday 17th where just over 19C (66F) was recorded.

Monday 21 October—Sunday 27 October
Wet and windy for all


With low pressure seemingly anchored to the west of the United Kingdom a turbulent week of weather is in store. If you have any outdoor plans you may find the weather intervening over the coming week. A wet week is forecast for all parts either because of heavy showers or more prolonged spells of rain. Despite all this rain, however, it will feel mild. Temperatures by mid-week in the south could be up in the high teens, 4-5C above what we would expect for this time of year. Towards the end of the week slightly cooler air will encroach from the northwest, and this could introduce the risk of a touch of frost to Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England.

Monday 28 October—Sunday 3 November
Are we stuck with low pressure over the UK?


With low pressure still expected to be flirting with the shores of the British Isles, all signs point to our weather remaining unsettled into early November. One subtle change in the positioning of the low pressure centre, with it migrating to the north of the UK, which may mean that southern and eastern parts are spared the worst of the weather. Rain and showers should become increasingly confined to northern and western parts. Temperatures by this stage will start to fall closer to the seasonal norm.

Monday 4 November—Sunday 24 November
Changing month; Changing weather?


Looking further ahead into November, the unsettled conditions look set to stay with us, with the main focus for rain continuing over northern and western parts of the UK. It will continue to be mild with daytime highs reaching the mid-teens in the south; overnight frosts are unlikely. In northern and western regions, under cloudier skies, temperatures will be lower - closer to what we would expect for this time of year. For the second week of November indications point to a slight cooling off for most areas, although remaining unsettled with spells of wet and windy weather for all parts. Frost and fog could become an increasing risk.
Next week

Will the mild weather continue through November too?
Monthly forecasting

The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.

Next update at 10:00, Monday 28 October


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