CO2 meets new benchmark

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Nigel

CO2 meets new benchmark

Post by Nigel »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24833148

Report goes onto say that the sea has absorbed much of the effects over last decade, and a recent scientific report on dire situation of our oceans confirmed this. Also we have low activity sunspot cycle.

When he say warming will take off with a vengeance at some point, I think he is right.
cordyman

Re: CO2 meets new benchmark

Post by cordyman »

Warming over the UK would be good lol
stephenprudence

Re: CO2 meets new benchmark

Post by stephenprudence »

It would be much less pronounced here than on the continent. But if atmospheric temperature improved it would leak down into the lower atmosphere. Winter temperatures would improve vastly if the 'worst case scenario occurred', probably with daytime maxes in double figures, and night time temps similar to Isles of Scilly currently, except in highland areas, and the most inland areas. In summer there would not be much change.
Nigel

Re: CO2 meets new benchmark

Post by Nigel »

stephenprudence wrote:It would be much less pronounced here than on the continent. But if atmospheric temperature improved it would leak down into the lower atmosphere. Winter temperatures would improve vastly, probably with daytime maxes in double figures, and night time temps similar to Isles of Scilly currently, except in highland areas, and the most inland areas. In summer there would not be much change.
Stephen, I fear the reverse would be true. Melting arctic sea ice has already allowed high pressure and blocking to form in some pretty nasty places for the UK. Global warming could in fact mean quite the opposite for the UK , it could subject us to weather befitting our latitude. Without arctic sea ice, the Arctic Dipole Anamoly is likely to become a permanent feature , that would mean winters like Dec 2010 , and springs and summers such as we just experienced.
stephenprudence

Re: CO2 meets new benchmark

Post by stephenprudence »

I that was the case then there would be be much global warming, as Dec 2010 had a big impact on Global temperatures in that month. If that was to be the case then Global warming would be misconcept, and may even actually come under Global cooling some years with large parts of Europe affecting the overall temperature, even if other parts of the globe are warming.

In theory it's all straightforward but there is a chance it could cool, but I think if that was the case we would have felt the affects much much more than the last few years winters suggests.
Nigel

Re: CO2 meets new benchmark

Post by Nigel »

stephenprudence wrote:I that was the case then there would be be much global warming, as Dec 2010 had a big impact on Global temperatures in that month. If that was to be the case then Global warming would be misconcept, and may even actually come under Global cooling some years with large parts of Europe affecting the overall temperature, even if other parts of the globe are warming.

In theory it's all straightforward but there is a chance it could cool, but I think if that was the case we would have felt the affects much much more than the last few years winters suggests.
Agreed and I suspect this anomoly helped contribute to set the rising temps back globally , but ultimately that will only cause a pause and temps will start the upward move again with us stuck in a newfoundland type climate situation.
multim

Re: CO2 meets new benchmark

Post by multim »

I guess we will have to wait and see. This time last year, 'The end of the world was nigh'. What will be, will be.
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Re: CO2 meets new benchmark

Post by Dave Brown »

But their argument put forward to explain the last 14 years of non warming just opens up even more unanswered questions.

If the sea absorbing heat and CO2 is the reason for non-warming for 14 years, then WHAT caused the sea to suddenly start absorbing, when it didn't before icon_scratch icon_scratch icon_scratch "DOES NOT COMPUTE - BEEP"
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Nigel

Re: CO2 meets new benchmark

Post by Nigel »

Dave Brown wrote:But their argument put forward to explain the last 14 years of non warming just opens up even more unanswered questions.

If the sea absorbing heat and CO2 is the reason for non-warming for 14 years, then WHAT caused the sea to suddenly start absorbing, when it didn't before icon_scratch icon_scratch icon_scratch "DOES NOT COMPUTE - BEEP"
Dave, the ability to absorb heat and CO2 is enormous. CO2 retention is very temperature dependent. Therefore a rise in sea temps precedes a rise in C02 absorbtion, However that is only part of it, as Stephen pointed out correctly the ADA caused by global warming had a colling effect on the planet, then we have falling sunspot activity in the current cycle. Therefore the direct effects of CO2 are being tempered by other factors, factors which are temporary.
I think its important to note that the last time CO2 was at 400ppm the earth was MUCH warmer than it is today , and the effects lag for hundreds of years, so even if CO2 stayed at the current level its likely we would see a quite sizeable increase in temps over the coming decades.
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