I'll give you a sample of my expertise and promise that "There will be a lot of it about".leunerj wrote:Do any of our resident weather experts want to update this thread? Go on - put your neck on the line and make a prediction for January
Outlook might be changing ????
Re: Outlook might be changing ????
Re: Outlook might be changing ????
More of the same although the intensity of the Atlantic storms should fall but rain and wind will continue with snow only for the hill tops and mountains. No sign of any severe frosty /snowy weather out to the middle of January.
Most wanted list - Any Young Trachycarpus and/or fern.
Re: Outlook might be changing ????
I think the signs are there for more cold moving in from this relatively mild start to the winter - probably second half of January onwards. Hope I am wrong........
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????
I predict January 2014 will be colder than July 2013leunerj wrote:Do any of our resident weather experts want to update this thread? Go on - put your neck on the line and make a prediction for January
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????
I agree Harry, there is quite a significant change going on , this springlike weather is almost over , the cold has been over the USA but that is now shifting to a more normal position. This will mean temps closer to seasonal average, which is cold in Januaryharryc wrote:I think the signs are there for more cold moving in from this relatively mild start to the winter - probably second half of January onwards. Hope I am wrong........
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????
leunerj wrote:Do any of our resident weather experts want to update this thread? Go on - put your neck on the line and make a prediction for January
Last edited by Arlon Tishmarsh on Sun Dec 29, 2013 6:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Outlook might be changing ????
And I'll predict that the warmest weather in January 2014 will be warmer than the coldest weather in July 2014Dave Brown wrote:I predict January 2014 will be colder than July 2013leunerj wrote:Do any of our resident weather experts want to update this thread? Go on - put your neck on the line and make a prediction for January
Re: Outlook might be changing ????
You may end up choking on those words
I am starting to think mid-January may be the turning point for some genuinely cold weather, perhaps very cold. By no means certain but I'm starting to think that way, as I think the Vortex will successfully drop down, and also allow a ridge in from the east.
But I'm often wrong and might be this time.
I am starting to think mid-January may be the turning point for some genuinely cold weather, perhaps very cold. By no means certain but I'm starting to think that way, as I think the Vortex will successfully drop down, and also allow a ridge in from the east.
But I'm often wrong and might be this time.
Re: Outlook might be changing ????
But lets face it stephen January and February are naturally pretty cold months anyway are they not?
Re: Outlook might be changing ????
Dont get drawn by the cold loving fools on the forums stephen. I called in to a couple today to see the usual idiots clutching at straws of cold mid jan. In reality the jet is fired up BIG style and will take some calming. Lets hope its in time for march and we can lift air up from africa.stephenprudence wrote:You may end up choking on those words
I am starting to think mid-January may be the turning point for some genuinely cold weather, perhaps very cold. By no means certain but I'm starting to think that way, as I think the Vortex will successfully drop down, and also allow a ridge in from the east.
But I'm often wrong and might be this time.
Most wanted list - Any Young Trachycarpus and/or fern.
Re: Outlook might be changing ????
Tom, drawn in? I don't even visit those model output discussions any more. This is entirely my own analysis of a situation. I have absolutely no interest what other people on other sites are suggesting. I genuinely think it'll get much colder, perhaps by mid-January
Aaron by cold I'm talking frequent frosts, perhaps more widespread snow.
Not out of the range of long term average cold, but neither could it be termed as short term average.
Anyhow it has to turn, to my knowledge there had never been a year (with the exception of 1988-89) when the cold hasn't come at some point.
We do have to consider cold at an up coming potential, despite, at the moment, models subduing it somewhat... the one thing I've learnt from model watching is how a seemingly fixed pattern can suddenly change, and I've witnessed this many many times over the years prior, so at the moment all's good, but there's no reason it won't change.
That said yes, it's mostly frost free at the moment.. I wouldn't call it mild, I think that's obtusely optimistic, but it's not an issue, and may even aid slow, intermittent growth, which is much better than frequent frost and ice. Live for the moment, yes, but also anticipate the future.
Im not overly worried though about this, as the currently pattern just shows, a cool period, which very limited frosts
Aaron by cold I'm talking frequent frosts, perhaps more widespread snow.
Not out of the range of long term average cold, but neither could it be termed as short term average.
Anyhow it has to turn, to my knowledge there had never been a year (with the exception of 1988-89) when the cold hasn't come at some point.
We do have to consider cold at an up coming potential, despite, at the moment, models subduing it somewhat... the one thing I've learnt from model watching is how a seemingly fixed pattern can suddenly change, and I've witnessed this many many times over the years prior, so at the moment all's good, but there's no reason it won't change.
That said yes, it's mostly frost free at the moment.. I wouldn't call it mild, I think that's obtusely optimistic, but it's not an issue, and may even aid slow, intermittent growth, which is much better than frequent frost and ice. Live for the moment, yes, but also anticipate the future.
Im not overly worried though about this, as the currently pattern just shows, a cool period, which very limited frosts
Re: Outlook might be changing ????
I think thats a pretty good assessment actually.stephenprudence wrote:Tom, drawn in? I don't even visit those model output discussions any more. This is entirely my own analysis of a situation. I have absolutely no interest what other people on other sites are suggesting. I genuinely think it'll get much colder, perhaps by mid-January
Aaron by cold I'm talking frequent frosts, perhaps more widespread snow.
Not out of the range of long term average cold, but neither could it be termed as short term average.
Anyhow it has to turn, to my knowledge there had never been a year (with the exception of 1988-89) when the cold hasn't come at some point.
We do have to consider cold at an up coming potential, despite, at the moment, models subduing it somewhat... the one thing I've learnt from model watching is how a seemingly fixed pattern can suddenly change, and I've witnessed this many many times over the years prior, so at the moment all's good, but there's no reason it won't change.
That said yes, it's mostly frost free at the moment.. I wouldn't call it mild, I think that's obtusely optimistic, but it's not an issue, and may even aid slow, intermittent growth, which is much better than frequent frost and ice. Live for the moment, yes, but also anticipate the future.
Im not overly worried though about this, as the currently pattern just shows, a cool period, which very limited frosts
Re: Outlook might be changing ????
I suppose we and certainly including myself i doing it all the time, call it mild as compared to the winters we have had so far it does feel rather mild, but i agree with you it can change at any time and i will make sure i am ready for when/if it does. but less frost is great.