Outlook might be changing ????

[Nigel]

Nigel the rolling CET is actually -0.6C below average.

http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html

Today is much better, sunny skies and 11.8C currently.

If you look at the detailed figures in your link it shows 0.7% above average not below so I think that is a mistake.Also the figures are out of date by 2 days which makes a big difference when it only includes 5 of 7. And of course weather is getting much warmer,those 5 days included the cold weekend which is significant, and left out the warmer 2 days since.


http://www.metcheck.com/UK/cet.asp

[stephenprudence]

The site a sent you is run, and kept up by Philip Eden, he's a former Met-Office employee who helps vet the manley/hadley CET series.. I don't want to sound argumentative, but I know whose CET I will be taking note of, and it certainly won't be Metcheck! The anomaly on the Eden site is in anomaly from degC not %.

The anomaly I sent IS the Hadley and Manley CET used by the Met office.

The CET will not have had such a rise in two days. I suspect we will see tomorrow.

[Nigel]

Stephen, Phillip Eden gives the rolling average as 7.2C. He then gives CET as 7.9C after end day 5.
This is clearly above not below.
Also you know the CET would be lower for those 5 days as day 6 and 7 were much warmer. The JPEG below shows CET bottomed at end day 5 then rose.
The CET you gave is pretty much in line with metcheck at day 5.
Therefore Metcheck CET is not wrong it agrees with your figure. It is only the -0.6 that is wrong, although I suspect it is not against month CET but an adjusted daily figure.
The weather has been exceptionally mild for the time of year , you dont get below average figures from mild southwesterlies.

I attach JPEG from your site , it clearly shows CET above average in line with metcheck.

Incidentally I only gave the Metcheck one because I couldnt find the Hadley one, and I believe metcheck use the Hadley figures too , otherwise i wouldnt have used it.

[Nigel]

Managed to find up to the minute temp on Hadley website, oddly they have it at +0.3 even though they agree with the Metcheck CET exactly.
I think the anomoly figure is not the comparison with the months CET but an adjusted figure to represent the time of the month , and therefore something different, but designed to give a truer picture of where CET will finish up at month end.

[stephenprudence]

The point of a rolling CET is to give a CET based on that 5 days, not against the CET expected for the whole of November. For example the CET for Nov 1-5 is going to be 7.8C (-0.6C) below average. By the end of the month if it stays the same, it may have risen above relatively speaking as the CET will decline as we head into the colder part of the month.

So for the expected CET between the 1st and the 5th it is below average, but if we compare it to the CET for the whole of the month, it is above average. I prefer the rolling CET than the fixed average, it gives a more realistic view of how things are, of current.

I think by months end the CET will be around 6.5C to 7.2C based on current model outputs.

[Nigel]

No Stephen, the Hadley one is using the rolling one adjusted for the time of month ( same as Philip Eden) and its above by 0.3C, Metcheck use the monthly one and its above by 1.5C. As I have said 3 times now the one on your link was wrong.
I have posted the proof using your own providers and you still wont accept it. I dont understand this obession to constantly exagerate temperatures downwards.
Hadley is showing right now a CET of 8.4C which is 1.5C above the November CET and 0.3C above the rolling 6 day average. NOT 0.6C below.

Also, the problem with your short rolling average is that there is 5 nights and 4 days included so it is corrupted downwards , especially in case of a cold night , this is recorded on the Hadley website as a proviso of the anomoly figure and gives a falsely low average in the early days.

[Dave Brown]

I don't see the point of comparing anything to CET, as CET relates to no particular weather station. Far better to compare against it's own weather station history.

[Nigel]

Dave, just trying to point out outlook remains mild , and not below average and cold. God knows the UK weather is sufficiently diabolical that it doesnt require portraying as being even worse than it already is.

[Kristen]

... apart from Daily Express reporters under editor's instructions to "Sell More Copy"

[Dave Brown]

Dave, just trying to point out outlook remains mild , and not below average and cold. God knows the UK weather is sufficiently diabolical that it doesnt require portraying as being even worse than it already is.

but a cool location will always show below CET even if recording average temps for the area, and warmer areas will always show above

[Nigel]

Dave, but that wasnt the issue.

Portraying doomsday weather is a national pastime. I am trying to be positive and its just like last year, first sign of cold and the end of the world is nigh with everything blown out of proportion.
Its going to be a long winter as always, its going to be a very very very long and painful winter if we subject ourselves to endless overly pessimistic forecasts of impending doom.

The fact is we live in a diabolical climate , lets try and be as positive as we can be this year and deal with it.

[stephenprudence]

You also forget Nigel, that the country has hardly been on an even keel.. the south of the CET zone, has been much warmer than the north on 2 days, this has resulted in the figure. The majority of the UK would say it hasn't been mild so far this November. I personally wouldn't calle average over the majority of the UK, mild, but that's not pessimism, it's just common sense. If it starts reaching the teens over the next couple of weeks, then I'll change my opinion. At best here and in most other places, it's been running pretty much even, with the CET.

[Nigel]

You also forget Nigel, that the country has hardly been on an even keel.. the south of the CET zone, has been much warmer than the north on 2 days, this has resulted in the figure. .

Stephen that argument is irrelevant as CET is recorded from 5 fixed locations across UK, as you know.
If you obtain a CET from 5 locations, 50% of country will be above average and 50% below. Thats is not the argument.
Philip Edens anomolous figure is simply wrong. I am sure you can see that now as his source confirms its wrong.

We will see come month end if your predictions of below average come true, I cannot see how it will happen unless we see a drastic change in the weather.

[redsquirrel]

philip edens anomolous?
sounds like a painful growth somewhere it shouldnt be

[cordyman]

today was warm in the sun, could feel some heat 11*c, which i've not felt since the rain started a few weeks back.

Sat and sun night are supposed to be cold, so i'm doing the winter cocoons on saturday morning. After that its warming up again?