Outlook might be changing ????

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Deedee

Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by Deedee »

stephenprudence wrote:Well Im only saying what I see (being the obvious candidate for forum pessimist). There are ways of getting rid of me if my dose of potential reality, is just too real. :lol: :wink:

Stephen-p the only reason i clicked on your thread was because you ARE a Pessimist :wink:
stephenprudence

Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by stephenprudence »

I actually have nothing to be pessimistic about, I don't know why I do it. However, and shock horror, it's not really that bad an outlook really when considering the extent of the cold. If everyone's ready we'll only see around -3C lowest in the next two weeks.

However a good point has been made.. it will be drying up to an extent, and more sunshine for some (as long as those pesky low cloud inversions keep at bay)
Nigel

Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by Nigel »

I actually enjoy most of Stephens input, for example the last post on the warning in the models was a valid one. The only thing I get a bit frustrated about is at times the cold gets over exagerated , at the moment we are slightly below CET , which makes Stephen technically right , but its only 0.2C below the adjusted average so really its average weather for November, rather than particularly cold. Anything within half a degree either way would be considered average weather.

Stephen is the technical expert on this forum, so his posts should always be of interest for everyone.

BTW Stephen I have been following Philip Eden since you highlighted him,and his stats are not in line with Hadley at all. His anomoly figure is way different to the Hadley one for November, yet his October anomoly figure only differed by 0.1C. I dont see how it can be correct, or how he can call it CET when the accepted CET is the Hadley average.
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Dave Brown
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by Dave Brown »

Nigel wrote:
Stephen is the technical expert on this forum, so his posts should always be of interest for everyone.
I didn't say they weren't interesting, what I was trying to say, and maybe didn't say very well, was I won't act too far ahead, as models change the nearer we get to an event, and have an element of extremism to start with.
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stephenprudence

Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by stephenprudence »

Temperature wise, the models have never shown anything extreme, in general only 0C to -2C. However I suspected they were being underplayed somewhat.. afterall a clear night in a cold airmass is not going to only bring -2C here.. however tonight is the first time that widespread -3 to -4C has been touted.. more in line with the realistic expectation. The outlook is not very consistent with regards to specific patterns though.. the only consistency is that we know itll cool down and 80% of us will record our first air frost by 20th November
Nigel

Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by Nigel »

stephenprudence wrote:Temperature wise, the models have never shown anything extreme, in general only 0C to -2C. However I suspected they were being underplayed somewhat.. afterall a clear night in a cold airmass is not going to only bring -2C here.. however tonight is the first time that widespread -3 to -4C has been touted.. more in line with the realistic expectation. The outlook is not very consistent with regards to specific patterns though.. the only consistency is that we know itll cool down and 80% of us will record our first air frost by 20th November
yes with high pressure, even friendly highs.... at this time of year clear skies and no wind is going to threaten air frost.
harryc
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by harryc »

Stephen it's looking very likely that the first sub zero thread will have quite a few posts by the end of 20th Nov.

H
stephenprudence

Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by stephenprudence »

clear skies and radiation frost is a fascinating subject. Inland, it's frost 99% of the time. In an inland coastal position like here, it depends on the atmospheres boundary layers.. those layers can rise and fall through the night. Sometimes, it falls sharply here, then recovers later in the night as warm air boundary layer falls. It's quite unpredictable whether frost will occur in borderline conditions. Other times the warm air boundary level is so high which means harsh frost, even from the same conditions.

I know I will have recorded my first air frost by the 20th, and many will too, except mild, and true coastal locations.

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otorongo
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by otorongo »

The first half of December is looking mild, 10C days and nights well above freezing icon_thumleft Mostly dry and southerly from this weekend on icon_cheers
cordyman

Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by cordyman »

Can't ask for more really, epic lack of frosts this far in!!
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by Dave Brown »

cordyman wrote:Can't ask for more really, epic lack of frosts this far in!!
Can.... I want the sun higher in the sky :lol:
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cordyman

Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by cordyman »

Well there is that lol
I need some curtains in my office, low sun and white blinds equal too much glare :shock:
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by Dave Brown »

cordyman wrote:Well there is that lol
I need some curtains in my office, low sun and white blinds equal too much glare :shock:
What sun icon_scratch not see here for about a week :roll:
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Yorkshire Kris
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by Yorkshire Kris »

Been sunny up here. The wind is going to be a test for my new fence.
Conifers
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Re: Outlook remains excellent

Post by Conifers »

Sunny all day here, but bitterly cold with a NW wind like a knife
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