Outlook might be changing ????

Conifers
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by Conifers » Mon Jan 20, 2014 9:39 pm

stephenprudence wrote:I didn't escape frost no, but neither did we get killing cold (either of us).. when you look at how cold it was over large swathes of Europe (including the Mediterranean coastal regions), believe me, we definitely escaped.
Have to agree with Stephen; I recall it got down to below -30°C in the Balkans (at the same time as it was an unheard-of +7°C in Spitzbergen!).


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stephenprudence
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by stephenprudence » Tue Jan 21, 2014 7:38 am

Looks like the cold air mass will win out, although the flow will be marginally off the Atlantic, the mild air can't come in, so in essence it's a textbook blocking scenario. I expect this will move westwards in the next few outputs, so whilst now it's a few hard frosts around the weekend, with maximum temperatures just below average, I suspect by tomorrow-Thursday, it'll be showing more frequent hard frosts, with ice days. Seems to definitely be a westwards progression on the models run by run, with the milder Atlantic air being kept at bay.. in the mean time the Siberian High continues to strengthen.

So whilst not 100% certain, the first hard cold spell/snap could be around the corner.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


Tom2006
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by Tom2006 » Tue Jan 21, 2014 7:59 am

Depends on the model though Stephen as some show the jet strengthen and destroy the block. I can see it going this way....I certainly hope it does anyway.
Most wanted list - Any Young Trachycarpus and/or fern.


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sanatic1234
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by sanatic1234 » Tue Jan 21, 2014 9:38 am

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?acti ... 5636;sess= This is a good insight as what to expect over the next few days.
Best regards Aaron :)

Summer 2013 was a good one :-).

http://s1006.photobucket.com/home/sanat ... entuploads


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kata
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by kata » Tue Jan 21, 2014 10:01 am

Thanks San, good one!

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Rain...nowt but rain...Welcome to Lancashire............ :lol: :lol: :lol:


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stephenprudence
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by stephenprudence » Tue Jan 21, 2014 10:59 am

For the next few days to a week the cold does indeed win but the longer term outlook is uncertain
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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sanatic1234
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Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by sanatic1234 » Tue Jan 21, 2014 11:03 am

3-4 days is what i go with stephen, longer forecasts as you say are always uncertain, 3-4 days forecast will be more accurate as you know. :-)
Best regards Aaron :)

Summer 2013 was a good one :-).

http://s1006.photobucket.com/home/sanat ... entuploads


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stephenprudence
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Location: Heswall, Wirral

Re: Outlook might be changing ????

Post by stephenprudence » Tue Jan 21, 2014 3:02 pm

It's very borderline right now, more than anytime now, it's literally impossible to forecast further ahead. The type of weather potential couldn't be much different either, relatively mild air from the west, severe cold to the east.. then of course the complications should moisture enter the equation, whereby we could expect heavy snow in some parts.. so very confused picture.
Heswall, Wirral, UK
USDA equivalent average temperature zone: 9a/RHS zone 3
AHS Heat Zone: 1
Last 5 winter minimums:
2007: -0.1C, 2008: -4.2C, 2009: -5.7C, 2010: -10.5 (record), 2011: -4.9C, 2012: -5.3, 2013: -4.5C (so far)


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